This is not a pop @NicolaSturgeon any more than @BorisJohnson, but the argument that it's too soon to make comparisons is wearing thin.
UK:
1.6M cases (pop. 67.9M)
85.7 deaths/100k
S. Korea
34k cases (pop. 51.6M)
1.0 deaths/100k
1/
2/
The UK has a death toll that is 86 times that of South Korea and 34% f those deaths happened after 1 June 2020.
Date chose as that's when the first lockdown ended.
3/
Well... Started to end...
Comparing and learning could have started well before then - there were definitely lessons to be learned when our death toll stood at around 40x South Korea's.
4/
It's worse than #Gaslighting to suggest that it's too early to compare.
1. It implies that somehow we are going to turn this around and reduce our death rate by a factor of 80 or that South Korea is likely to spectacularly f🤬k up
Neither are likely.
5/
2. There is a much more insidious inference to be made.
If leaders in the UK are so insistent that it's too early to make comparisons, it implies they are not looking to learn from their failure.
Too harsh to claim they are sticking their head in the sand?
6/
If it is too harsh, explain this to me:
Were we to be learning from successful countries, how did we go from 57 deaths/100k at the beginning of June to 85/7 deaths/100k by the end of November?
7/
I suggest we start taking politicians at their word.
It has often been state that it is too early to make comparisons and the continued failures suggest that comparisons are not being made.
8/
South Korea has avoided drastic lockdowns.
It also has a working Track and Trace system.
Yes there are strict controls on the few infected, but this means there are far less controls at population level.
9/
There are comparisons to be made and lessons to be learned.
@BorisJohnson, @NicolaSturgeon and all other UK leaders should have been making them, but seem to have abandoned this duty in the hope the electorate will forget.
Either lazy journalism means the writer missed Y7-11 have the most cases of any age (>2%) or they were trying to create the impression of a problem that is overhyped
Bias
1/
2/
Relatively few is wrong
Look at @ONS data: you see only 6th Form - 24 even come close to 2%
NB: These @ONS demographics seem to carry bias too
.@DogLady2020 I just checked back in on the prediction from 21 days ago & the 7 day average is 200 deaths per day
😖
Third time in a row I have been a bit under (181 yesterday, then we had catch up Monday) but a reasonable prediction for 14/11 is 300 - 400 deaths a day
Previous estimates have been based on the 7 day average of cases reported.
Shifting to 7 day average of cases by swab date gives an expected average of 206 deaths/day today - spookily accurate.
WARNING: We don't know the average yet as swab date lags by c. 4 days
3/
We are on day 57 👆
Looking at another measure - the log of cases reported so far 👇 you can see the orange line (deaths by date of death) is higher than the rolling average reported (blue)
This is because fatalities are rising - but note the last 5 days are unreliable