1/

This video crystallises something that has been bugging me

Please read this 🧵 and see if you can help me understand

First, watch the video and then compare + contrast with the one in the next Tweet

🤔

Also, today has raised a new really important question at the end…
2/

On May 6th @MattHancock believed that children in school spread #COVID19.

And on December 10th he believed children in school spread COVID.

gov.uk/government/spe…
3/

So the first question is:

What the hell happened in between?

Why were children sent back to school with measures known to be inadequate to prevent the spread of COVID?

They seeded the second wave and this lead to c. 21k additional deaths so far? Half term dips show how important schools are in transmissioChildren were the only group not to see cases reduce in lock
4/

We know @MattHancock had COVID.

Is this the post viral brain fug at work?

Or did he just sell his soul for political expediency and end up with the blood of 21,000 victims on his conscience?

No wonder he wept in Parliament.
5/

But today an even more serious question has arisen.

In this afternoon’s statement it was revealed there is a new strain of #Covid_19 accounting for many of the infections in London and the SE.

This strain is thought to spread more quickly than the previous dominant strain.
6/

The Government say it will be a few days to weeks before we know for sure whether the new strain will still be taken down by the vaccine

It is still their policy to sue schools that shut early

Let that sink in because we just showed we learned f🤬k all in round 1 & round 2.
7/

Best case scenario:

Leaving schools open instead of moving online allows a faster spreading variant to spread further thought the community

If it becomes dominant across the country -> more areas in higher tiers and more frequent lockdowns
8/

@BBCFergusWalsh ignores this in his "don’t be unduly alarmed post", continuing @BBCNews streak of doing little other than pumping government propaganda.

Journalism is dead there.
9/

Worst case scenario is we reduce the efficacy of the vaccine, perhaps close to zero, as the fast spreading takes over.

If there is one thing we should have learned by now, after wave 1, after wave 2, is to apply the precautionary principle.
10/

This policy of keeping schools open, just after admitting they are driving COVID19’s spread, even after a new, fast spreading variant emerges comes from someone who has the gall to call himself Health Secretary.
11/

@MattHancock should be referred to as the Secretary of State for Disease henceforth.

He is batting for Team COVID.

(end)

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More from @ConcernedofBri1

30 Nov
With @imperialcollege React 7a results there is a question that desperately needs asking.

Why did the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 fall in every age group apart from the two including school children?

1/
2/

I remember when the lie was:

-children don't catch #COVID
-children only catch it from adults
-children don't transmit it to each other.

@CMO_England this is really starting to look like solid evidence the above were lies.
3/

Children started with the highest prevalence & are the only groups with more cases after #lockdown2

If I were:

@theflva
@ukactive
@RoyalAcadMusic
@apac_ssn
@CBI_London

I would be furious that all the sacrifices were squandered so @HuwMerriman didn't have to back down
Read 9 tweets
29 Nov
This is not a pop @NicolaSturgeon any more than @BorisJohnson, but the argument that it's too soon to make comparisons is wearing thin.

UK:
1.6M cases (pop. 67.9M)
85.7 deaths/100k

S. Korea
34k cases (pop. 51.6M)
1.0 deaths/100k

1/
2/

The UK has a death toll that is 86 times that of South Korea and 34% f those deaths happened after 1 June 2020.

Date chose as that's when the first lockdown ended.
3/

Well... Started to end...

Comparing and learning could have started well before then - there were definitely lessons to be learned when our death toll stood at around 40x South Korea's.
Read 9 tweets
27 Nov
@KatharineDC Here's an example of why @BBCNews is gaining a reputation for bias

Bias is a subtle tool

Either lazy journalism means the writer missed Y7-11 have the most cases of any age (>2%) or they were trying to create the impression of a problem that is overhyped

Bias

1/
2/

Relatively few is wrong

Look at @ONS data: you see only 6th Form - 24 even come close to 2%

NB: These @ONS demographics seem to carry bias too

Why not count all school children?

ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…

Look at the Half Term Dips in Y12 - 24!

Universities don’t have HT…
3/

Perhaps the author tried to convey something else & failed

No idea how you would analyse this, but maybe more isolations do occur in students relative to adults who test positive

But this is a symptom of the problem 👇
Read 8 tweets
26 Nov
Schools or Partying?

On 12/11 coronavirus cases spiked to 33k cases, it remains the only day where over 30k have been reported...

But the partying narrative is part of the agenda to keep schools open 'at all costs'

Please read on, it's going to take c. 10 min to post...

1/
2/

We know .gov have been pushing journalists to infer its was due to pre-lockdown partying

For example @nicktriggle's piece from 16/11, but this appears to be lazy journalism.

3/

If we look at data y swab date, a more worrying picture emerges.

We can clearly see there are TWO days with more than 30k cases.

The first and highest on record is actually 2/11. This is the Monday after #lockdown2 was announced.
Read 14 tweets
27 Oct
1/

.@DogLady2020 I just checked back in on the prediction from 21 days ago & the 7 day average is 200 deaths per day

😖

Third time in a row I have been a bit under (181 yesterday, then we had catch up Monday) but a reasonable prediction for 14/11 is 300 - 400 deaths a day

😬
2/

Previous estimates have been based on the 7 day average of cases reported.

Shifting to 7 day average of cases by swab date gives an expected average of 206 deaths/day today - spookily accurate.

WARNING: We don't know the average yet as swab date lags by c. 4 days
3/

We are on day 57 👆

Looking at another measure - the log of cases reported so far 👇 you can see the orange line (deaths by date of death) is higher than the rolling average reported (blue)

This is because fatalities are rising - but note the last 5 days are unreliable
Read 11 tweets
21 Oct
@adamhamdy It looks very much like schools are being used to drive this by the back door.

A bit more thinking to do about 👇

It shows %age rise in 7 day average across UK but you can clearly see spikes a week after schools went back in different regions, then unis

(1/n)
@adamhamdy 2/n

From last night's press conference @BorisJohnson seems to think we just need to try a bit harder to follow rules

However, since mid-July there have been around 15% extra cases each week

This seems to have jumped to more like 25% as schools returned

@adamhamdy @BorisJohnson 3/n

The large spike at the end encompasses two things:

-case backlog being added
-uni return

BUT we seem to have rebounded to around 25% extra cases each week again (early days)

Importantly, it's unclear how much of the sharp fall is unis dealing with 'their virus'
Read 8 tweets

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