I would be furious that all the sacrifices were squandered so @HuwMerriman didn't have to back down
4/
We keep on being told that schools must be kept open at all costs.
While that cost keeps on racking up in terms of jobs, 3.3k deaths a week, @GavinWilliamson continues to ban face masks in the classroom.
Today's studies show the guidance to be inadequate.
5/
Lockdowns work - current data proves it.
But equally current data proves that all ages of children are catching SARS-CoV-2 in schools due to the wholly inadequate measures put in place.
@CMO_England can you not see that we have a reservoir of the virus in the community?
6/
If I was @BorisJohnson I would hang my head in shame at putting the population through the privations of #lockdown to achieve a piffling 30% reduction in cases.
Imagine how much greater the reward for our sacrifices would have been if we had tackled one of the main drivers?
7/
I remember something else.
I remember when you made it far harder to plan around the disruption by reneging on the promise of laptops for those who needed them to study from home.
This is not a pop @NicolaSturgeon any more than @BorisJohnson, but the argument that it's too soon to make comparisons is wearing thin.
UK:
1.6M cases (pop. 67.9M)
85.7 deaths/100k
S. Korea
34k cases (pop. 51.6M)
1.0 deaths/100k
1/
2/
The UK has a death toll that is 86 times that of South Korea and 34% f those deaths happened after 1 June 2020.
Date chose as that's when the first lockdown ended.
3/
Well... Started to end...
Comparing and learning could have started well before then - there were definitely lessons to be learned when our death toll stood at around 40x South Korea's.
Either lazy journalism means the writer missed Y7-11 have the most cases of any age (>2%) or they were trying to create the impression of a problem that is overhyped
Bias
1/
2/
Relatively few is wrong
Look at @ONS data: you see only 6th Form - 24 even come close to 2%
NB: These @ONS demographics seem to carry bias too
.@DogLady2020 I just checked back in on the prediction from 21 days ago & the 7 day average is 200 deaths per day
😖
Third time in a row I have been a bit under (181 yesterday, then we had catch up Monday) but a reasonable prediction for 14/11 is 300 - 400 deaths a day
Previous estimates have been based on the 7 day average of cases reported.
Shifting to 7 day average of cases by swab date gives an expected average of 206 deaths/day today - spookily accurate.
WARNING: We don't know the average yet as swab date lags by c. 4 days
3/
We are on day 57 👆
Looking at another measure - the log of cases reported so far 👇 you can see the orange line (deaths by date of death) is higher than the rolling average reported (blue)
This is because fatalities are rising - but note the last 5 days are unreliable