➡️ Folowing the ECJ's decision, it'll be difficult for Nord Stream & #NordStream2 to be ran at full capacity, simultaneously.
The combined capacity of OPAL, EUGAL & NEL is not sufficient to allow NS1 & NS2 to operate at full capacity #ONGT
That would hamper larger diversion +
from Ukraine and Yamal routes as up to 28 bcm might not be shipped via NS1 and NS2.
It's a decision that could potentially impact the pattern of Gazprom's supplies to Europe : not only regarding the utilization/choice of routes, but also the delivery points , which could be +
at the start of NS2, EUGAL and OPAL, in order to allow access to third parties

➡️ Equally important for the pattern of Gazprom's supplies to Europe, and potentially for its operation model will be the judgement on the ongoing litigation of Nord Stream 2 AG in relation with +
the amended Gas Directive: action for annulment at ECJ (pending appeal), and application for a derogation at German courts (pending appeal at Düsseldorf Regional Court ).
*📌 Nord Stream 2 AG recent application for certification as independent TSO=to be assessed in this context

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More from @v_madalina

13 Jul
📌 In the midst of Germany-US negotiations on NS2 , and ahead of : i) Merkel's meeting with Biden ; ii)announcement of imminent completion of pipeline (late August)

➡️How could #NordStream2 be leveraged in the context of low gas inventories ? #ONGT
google.com/amp/s/amp.dw.c… + Image
A view from Deutsche Welle
"Either grant an operating license for Nord Stream 2 (...) or face major gas supply problems during the winters".

And a view from Russia's state news agency Novosti, quoted by DW ⬇️

"Russia withholds its supplies (...) to accustom Western partners + Image
to the obvious idea : guaranteeing their own security of supply is only possible in close partnership with Russia"

➡️ Meanwhile, Ukraine considers that "the only acceptable option" to compensate it for the launch of NS2 is a new gas transit contract +
biz.liga.net/ekonomika/tek/…
Read 4 tweets
24 Aug 20
Now, that the fever of #Turkey's gas finding has cooled off (or not?), time for a (long) THREAD on challenges and implications #OOTT #ONGT

➡️ The gas is in ULTRA-deep waters: mark this term, it bears important outcomes

Tuna-1 well is located in 2115 meters water depth 1/
and the gas reserves were hit 1400 meters further, at nearly 3500 m water depth.
Total depth of drillings is expected to reach 4525 m where two more layers of gas are likely to be found (accord' to Fatih Donmez)

*Currently 500 m is considered the threshold for "deep waters" 2/
Depths over 1500 meters are considered "ultradeep waters"

👉Feature 1> in comparison with onshore projects, the offshore ones are considerable more expensive & involve long term deployments

👉Feature 2 > ultradeep projects are even more challenging
Since 1996, the oil & gas 3/
Read 16 tweets
21 Jul 20
As #NDAA on the House and Senate floors this week (!), the opportunity for a THREAD on #NordStream2 and #Turkstream has arisen

1️⃣ Modification of Guidance for Section 232 of CAATSA to allow sanctioning of NS2 and second line of Turkstream (#Balkanstream) aims 1/
>>to give entities involved in the two projects leeway to wind down their participation before theCongress sanctions (NDAA) would hit on
>>as paradoxically as it may seem, to reduce some of the impact and scope of Congress sanctions 👉potentially, to avoid retroactive 2/
application of sanctions. Regarding the scope, should wait until we see what sanctions, exactly, would be included in NDAA, and what other entities-from those providing underwriting or insurance to pipe-laying vessels, to those facilitating shop retrofitting-would be targeted 3/
Read 14 tweets
11 Sep 19
Theoretically, any third party

In practice, it remains to be seen how many third parties will have available gas at Greifswald entry-point to pump into #OPAL pipeline. Pertinent to mention that OPAL's underutilised capacity was the core argument that Gazprom put forward when 1/
it fought to be allowed to use more than 50% of OPAL capacity > because there's a track of consistent underutilization of the pipeline, aka of the other 50% capacity that had not been previously exempted.

If the ECJ ruling would stay as such, and if BNetzA wouldn't intervene 2/
to offset the ECJ decision by providing another exemption, as some suggest (but that has to be subject of Commission's scrutiny too), then we might witness significant underutilization of OPAL capacity

Unless Russia goes for a breakthrough & it'd allow to other companies than 3/
Read 4 tweets
4 Sep 19
This agreement between #China & Iran is one of most important #geopolitical developments of the year & its outcomes will reverberate beyond the geopolitics of energy field

▪️ $280bn to be invested by China in #Iran's oil, gas & petrochemicals sectors 1/

petroleum-economist.com/articles/polit…
- China will get minimum guaranteed discount of 12% to any oil, gas & petchems products that it'll buy; plus another 6 to 8%
-China to speed up development of #Phase 11 of South Pars gas field -from which Total had withdrawn, in response to US sanctions
-Also, production from 2/
from Iran's West Karoun oil fields to be increased by addit' 500,000bl/d by end of 2020
-China's imports of Iranian oil to stay high, even to be increased=>a continuous undermining factor of US sanctions policy

-China can delay the payment of Iranian oil, gas and petchems 3/
Read 7 tweets

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