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Laurie Garrett Profile picture
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23 Jul, 4 tweets, 4 min read
Independent epidemiologists pool their models to forecast #COVID19 trends in the US. The latest sees horror ahead if #vaccination rates stay as they are & the super-transmitter #DeltaVariant remains responsible for >80% of all new infections.
covid19scenariomodelinghub.org/viz.html
MORE
2/ We are in Scenario D right now, which would put us at the beginning of a #COVID19 surge in the USA that won't peak until late Fall or early Winter.
The key issue if the vastly more infectious #DeltaVariant which is minimally 3Xs more transmissible than "normal" #SARSCoV2 .
AND
3/ Increasing evidence that fully vaccinated people can carry #DeltaVariant & pass it on to others. There is evidence of this in Los Angeles now.
AND
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
4/ Key to #DeltaVariant super-spreading -- even from vaccinated adults -- is a set of mutations in the virus that allow it to take over cells and produce 1000 times more copies of itself in hours, compared to "normal" #SARSCoV2 . Carriers have no symptoms.
nature.com/articles/d4158…

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More from @Laurie_Garrett

Laurie Garrett Profile picture
20 Jul
A new @AnnenbergPenn poll on Americans and #COVID19 offers some tough news. First, about a third of Americans believe the Chinese government made #SARSCoV2 deliberately, as a bioweapon. And that toll has increased since April. annenbergpublicpolicycenter.org/science-commun…
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2/ Couple that, according to @AnnenbergPenn , with belief by more than half of Americans that #COVID19 came out of the #Wuhan Inst. of Virology -- either deliberately, or accidentally, leaked. Only 13% are sure #SARSCoV2 did NOT come out of the WIV lab.
MORE Image
3/ And @AnnenbergPenn finds that 25% of Americans actually believe -- either absolutely surely or maybe -- that @BillGates has put microchips in #COVID19 #vaccines for some unstated purpose (beyond the zillion ways we are already monitored via our cell phones).
MORE Image
Read 4 tweets
Laurie Garrett Profile picture
15 Jul
This Guangdong Provincial Cntr for Disease Control & Prevention study is scary. Thanks @larrybrilliant for tweeting.
My take:
1.) A person came down w/#COVID19 in Guangzhou, testing + May 21, 2021;
2.) By June18 another 167 infections were id'ed, all frm the 1st index case.
MORE
3.) Infection was caused by #DeltaVariant #SARSCoV2 so all the infected were quarantined & PCR tested daily.
4.) And "the viral load of the first positive test of Delta infections was ~1000 times higher than" than seen w/2020 Wuhan forms of the virus.
MORE
5.) In this early, ASYMPTOMATIC stage of infection the #DeltaVariant cases had "faster viral replication rate and more infectiousness" to others.
6.) These ppl had huge nose swab viral levels: 81% of samples contained >600,000copies/mL, while only 19% of original...
MORE
Read 7 tweets
Laurie Garrett Profile picture
8 Jul
If you have been obsessing over the origins of #SARSCoV2 -- including the "lab leak theory" -- you need to read this very important new paper:
zenodo.org/record/5075888…
It's written by scientists whose life work is figuring out where viruses come from.
MORE
2/ They conclude:
"there is a substantial body of scientific evidence supporting a zoonotic origin for
#SARSCoV2. While the possibility of a laboratory accident cannot be entirely dismissed...this conduit for emergence is highly unlikely relative to the
numerous..."
MORE
3/
 "...& repeated human-animal contacts that occur routinely in the wildlife trade. Failure to investigate the zoonotic origin thru collaborative & carefully coordinated studies wld leave the world vulnerable to future #pandemics arising frm the same" animal/human interactions.
Read 4 tweets
Laurie Garrett Profile picture
25 Jun
European threat assessment of #DeltaVariant #COVID19 :
"Based on the available evidence, the #SARSCoV2 Delta (B.1.617.2) variant of concern (VOC) is 40-60% more transmissible than the Alpha (Β.1.1.7) VOC and..."
MORE
ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/…
2/
 "...may be associated with higher risk of hospitalization.
Furthermore...those who have only received the 1st dose of a 2-dose #vaccination course are less well protected against infection w/the #DeltaVariant than against other variants, regardless of the vaccine type."
MORE
3/
 "However, full vaccination provides nearly equivalent protection against the #DeltaVariant. Based on the est'ed transmission advantage of Delta...
70% of new #SARSCoV2 infections are projected to be due to this variant in the EU/EEA by early August & 90% by the end of August."
Read 4 tweets
Laurie Garrett Profile picture
24 Jun
As the incidence of #DeltaVariant #SARSCoV2 rises in the US, India says a worse, "Delta+" strain has emerged that bypasses the @AstraZeneca #vaccine .
Meanwhile, the #COVID19 crisis in India begat a mucormycosis -- "black fungus" -- nightmare.
MORE
washingtonpost.com/world/interact…
2/
 It reminds me of the early days of AIDS and cryptococcosis pneumonia. Both fungal infections arise when patients' immune systems are weakened.
“It’s a form of flesh-eating fungus that destroys tissues as it grows. If it involves the sinus, they have to be cleared."
MORE
3/ "If it involves the eye — the eyeball, lids, muscles around the eye have to be removed, leaving behind the bare, bony socket.”
The drug used for treatment, amphotericin B, is expensive, in short supply, is infused & has lots of side effects.
MORE
Read 4 tweets
Laurie Garrett Profile picture
22 Jun
Whooo-boy, this preprint by Jesse Bloom is going to roil the waters of #SARSCoV2 origins debates. biorxiv.org/content/10.110…
It's complicated, but I will try to walk thru some key points. Bloom -- who was part of a group of scientists that recently demanded better scrutiny of...MORE
2/...the origins of the Dec 2019 Wuhan #SARSCoV2 outbreak, found 13 early viral genomes on Google iCloud that had been deleted -- mysteriously -- from NIH’s Sequence Read Archive. The sequences were collected in Jan2020 by Aisu Fu and Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University.
MORE
3/ Bloom interrogates Googled genomes, comparing them to ones in the public record, & concludes they are more bat-like & show no connection to the Wuhan animal market. His Pre-print takes a dark turn. I quote: "Crucially, both putative progenitors are 3 mutations closer.." MORE
Read 8 tweets

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