Thread by @x2IndSpeculator

One of the most uniquely disruptive things about the #SARSCoV2 pandemic is the extreme disproportionality of outcomes, which leads to insurmountable divisions & misunderstandings on all levels, threatening to rupture society.
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diaryofamacrodaytrader.substack.com/p/3-disproport…

I wrote about this #COVID characteristic last year. Some might experience only mild symptoms; others get excruciatingly stuck in hospital for months. Some families decimated; others barely felt it.
It takes a lot of empathy to envision & feel pain outside of a person's circle.
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Disproportionate outcomes are further amplified across age groups & according to health & wealth. #SARS2 finds any weakness. Mortality skyrockets once people can't get oxygen.
When we get to a national level, these same divisions & misunderstandings show up again.
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#SARS2 pandemic is a global problem, demanding a joint coordinated action. Yet, we see over & over again a country in a state of emergency while neighbors watching passively in disbelief with just a handful of cases? It seems nothing was learned in the last 18 months.
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The same thing is happening right now for the 2nd summer in a row in North America & Europe. Current witnessing of repeated "Mission Accomplished" & "Crisis Is Over" declarations by the world's wealthiest nations is frustrating.
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1st, as #Delta has shown, it's not over until it's over globally; we share the same planet.
2nd, North America & Europe have predominantly temperate & continental climates with annual variations in temperature (hot summers/cold winters), thus seasonal respiratory virus waves.
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It's astonishing #SARS2 VOCs are so endurable to cause such large outbreaks even in the summer when the temperature on those two continents acts as a headwind for viruses. This phenomenon attenuated outcomes last summer, probably does so again now in addition to vaccines.
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In this chart, I've added 7-day average cases & deaths from North America & Europe and compared them to the 7-day average cases & deaths in the world. NA & E have similar climate & societal conditions, thus together presenting clear seasonal & behavioral patterns.
@OurWorldInData

From this, we can see how the crisis mode of the #SARSCoV2 pandemic shifts across the planet throughout the year from NA & Europe to Asia, Africa & South America, and vice versa. It's tough to mount a joint global response if this is not acknowledged & understood.

In the spring of 2020, NA & E had up to 90% of the world cases & deaths. By the summer that share tumbled to just 30%, where it stayed from June to September; the crisis seemed to have passed. But by November it rose again to 70% and stayed there all through January 2021.

By the summer of 2021, the share of NA & E cases & deaths has then fallen to 20% (which is close to a share those two continents have in total population). As the #SARS2 spread by now to every part of the world, the pandemic has become truly global.

As cases & deaths from Asia, South America & Africa rose to 80%, leaders & people of NA & E hastily concluded they've solved the #SARS2 pandemic & it's not their problem anymore. Well, not so fast. Since we're dealing with a respiratory virus, it's wise to wait through the year.

Now, optimists would rightfully point out a huge rise in the percentage of NA & E cases compared to a steady percentage of deaths. That's certainly the benefit of vaccines since NA & E are the most vaccinated continents. But, why aren't unvaccinated dying in greater numbers?

Look closely to 2020 and in June & July, there was a similar divergence of a smaller magnitude. Cases rose from 30% to 40% while deaths stayed the same at 30%. Back then, there were no variants and no vaccines. So, I think we're disregarding "some" significance of climate.

I may be wrong, but we are dealing with a respiratory virus. With those, we always overlap cases & deaths year over year. Now, with #SARS2, nobody is doing it except me. Confusing, lazy & leading to comparing apples to oranges, summer to winter. Which leads to complacency.

Sahin said cellular immunity isn't dropping, but we are unsure exactly why & which part is protecting us vs. severity. The best correlate of protection is antibody titer which Sahin confirmed is falling after 6 months. Studies show for convalescent dropping even sooner vs. VOCs.

If I'm right, since we have no updated boosters, no new vaccines or treatment ready, and have decided to abandon NPIs, then we must prepare to boost people as soon as possible in time for the fall/winter period.

August is upon us; we are in a race with time again, as antibodies are falling & the #Deltavariant is prevalent. Instead, we decided to do nothing but declare victory. In the middle of the summer!