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Rijo M. John

@RijoMJohn

30 Jul

https://twitter.com/RijoMJohn/status/1416657013862330371

This thread on why #Kerala’s #COVID19 numbers still not falling & my subsequent tweet on ICMR 4th serosurvey has exponentially increased the level of troll activity on my TL

I love data & let me dispel more misconceptions with data so the trolls can keep earning their bread.
1/

https://twitter.com/RijoMJohn/status/1416657013862330371

First of all, I feel pity for these trolls wasting their time on a state whose healthcare infra has never collapsed at any time during this pandemic.

Here's the current usage of health infra in Kerala. Don't you worry, the state will sail through even at 40K daily cases.
2/

One major argument against my original thread was that I used an old ICMR serosurvey. Yes, because a new one was not yet available. When it became available, it didn't change a thing. See the article I wrote deriving same conclusions using 4th survey.
3/
science.thewire.in/health/why-is-…

Read 14 tweets

Rijo M. John

@RijoMJohn

24 Jul

Seroprevalence in #Kerala is 42.7% compared to 67.6% as per the note shared byGovt. of Kerala y'day. i.e., a difference of 25% points.

It implies, the pandemic spread in Kerala has stayed consistently well below the national avg. indicating a more flattened curve in Kerala.
1/

Both 7-day avg. daily new cases & test positivity rates are on a steady rise in #Kerala as ~50% of the popn still remain susceptible.

Daily testing has been stable around 1.3L/day

The state needs to significantly increase its daily testing given the high & increasing TPR
2/

Although the daily reported deaths have declined a bit, the mortality rate itself has been on the rise.

At 0.5%, it is higher than the previous wave.
3/

Read 6 tweets

Rijo M. John

@RijoMJohn

22 Jul

@MoHFW_INDIA

.@MoHFW_INDIA has quickly come up with another #MythsVsFacts to "debunk" one more report highlighting India's #COVID19 deaths undercounting as they've done multiple times in the past.

As usual, the rebuttal itself is rich in myths & low on facts.
1/

https://twitter.com/RijoMJohn/status/1415270140925538306?s=20

@CGDev

The original study by the @CGDev & authored by respected authors including Dr. @arvindsubraman, former chief economist to GoI, estimates that India may have undercounted #COVID19 deaths by 10 times. The study can be found here.
2/
cgdev.org/publication/th…

The major problem GoI seems to have is that this study "audacious"ly assumed the same international estimates of age-specific infection fatality rates (IFR) to Indian seroprevalence data ignoring the fact that the authors have used 3 different methods to derive their numbers.
3/

Read 19 tweets

Rijo M. John

@RijoMJohn

18 Jul

Has #Kerala miserably failed in containing #COVID19 pandemic?

This is a question I keep getting from various quarters. This thread is an attempt to explain it.
1/

Using the latest ICMR 3rd sero survey results during Dec 2020, we can see that #Kerala was able to identify & report one in every 5 cases, while all of India was able to identify only 1 in every 28 cases.

It shows the effectiveness of testing strategy used in Kerala
2/

Testing after good tracing & tracking would make it much more effective. This may result in higher TPR, but it's a cost effective use of testing infrastructure

Kerala has not only done nearly double the number of tests per million but it had a much better case detection rate.
3/

Read 13 tweets

Rijo M. John

@RijoMJohn

12 Jun

@TheEconomist

Thread.

1/ An article from @TheEconomist claiming that India's true #covid19 mortality maybe 5-7 times than the reported numbers has really irked GoI so much so @MoHFW_INDIA has now published a rebuttal that is short on substance but abundant on rhetoric.

2/ After using words like "speculative", "misinformed", "unsound" etc. to describe the article, the rebuttal interestingly says "there is no peer-reviewed scientific data available" for some studies used in that report.

I'm glad GoI takes scientific peer review seriously.

3/ Then why has it made claims on the safety & effectiveness of Covaxin without backing up with peer-reviewed scientific data?

What was the peer-reviewed scientific data based on which #Coronil got Ayush Ministry certification?

Thi list is actually long. So, I'll stop.

Read 15 tweets

Rijo M. John

@RijoMJohn

9 Jun

Data thread on #COVID19Vaccine distribution across Indian states

*Age group:
HCWs & FLWs are among all age groups

Most of the limited supply should ideally go to the 60+ followed by 45-60 until supply is sufficient. Yet, a large chunk is going to 18-45 in some states

1/

There is a considerable gender gap in the distribution of vaccinations in some states

2/

88% of all doses so far were Covishield at the national level, followed by Covaxin. Sputink already distributed in some states such AP, TS, MH, KA, KL, & WB.
3/

Read 5 tweets

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