Thread by @Charles_Lister

Catastrophic 72hrs for #Afghanistan, as the #Taliban capture 5 provincial capitals -- taking military bases, airports, emptying prisons etc.

The U.S. (then NATO) withdrawal is clearly an utter disaster, but that ship has sailed -- muted response from #Washington says everything.

#Taliban control in #Afghanistan:

Mid-April: 77 districts:
Early-August: 229 districts

Nearly 50% of provincial capitals are now under #Taliban threat.

(via @LongWarJournal)

@LongWarJournal NEW -- Early reports emerging that the #Taliban may have just captured its 6th provincial capital in 4 days: #Aybak, in #Samangan.

@LongWarJournal Remarkable -- #Afghanistan's military is just 'not our problem anymore,' @DeptofDefense appears to be saying here.

As cities fall & prisons empty, the trajectory is going to worsen day-by-day. As @RoryStewartUK said, "we've betrayed #Afghanistan."

https://twitter.com/idreesali114/status/1424806695235203073

@LongWarJournal @DeptofDefense @RoryStewartUK When I wrote my MA thesis on #Afghanistan 11yrs ago, there were deep-rooted problems with US/NATO strategy -- & the goals set then were arguably unachievable.

BUT, erratically departing w. no 'Day 2' plan in place for #Kabul & residual US capabilities was hubris in the extreme.

@LongWarJournal @DeptofDefense @RoryStewartUK NEW -- the #Taliban have just captured their 7th provincial capital in 5 days: the city of #Farah.

Central prison has been emptied, military bases captured along with yet more U.S.-made vehicles & weapons.

Several more cities are actively under siege/assault.

@LongWarJournal @DeptofDefense @RoryStewartUK The #Taliban captured another provincial capital this evening -- Pul-i-Khumri, in #Baghlan -- the 8th in 4 days.

#Taliban forces also appear to be prepping tonight for assaults No. 9 & 10: #Ghazni & Fayzabad.

@LongWarJournal @DeptofDefense @RoryStewartUK BREAKING -- Multiple sources reporting that #Fayzabad (capital of Badakhshan) has fallen to the #Taliban tonight.

That makes 9 provincial capitals in 5 days, with #Ghazni on the brink tonight too.

@LongWarJournal @DeptofDefense @RoryStewartUK With 9 provincial capitals taken in 6 days, the #Taliban are assaulting at least 6 more -- #Kandahar, Qala-e-Naw, #Kunduz, #Lashkargah, Tarin Kot & #Ghazni.

The latest U.S. intel fears #Kabul could fall within 90 days. That seems somewhat generous given the current trajectory.

@LongWarJournal @DeptofDefense @RoryStewartUK As #Afghanistan's cities begin to fall & entire ANDSF units/bases surrender, the #Taliban's capture of heavy weaponry is spiraling, making #ISIS' 2014 loot look like childs-play -- since June:

11 tanks
33 AFVs
2 helicopters
1,723 Humvees, MRAPs, ATVs & trucks

per @oryxspioenkop

@LongWarJournal @DeptofDefense @RoryStewartUK @oryxspioenkop This is excellent reporting, and utterly damning on the ill-thought out & calamitously premature/hurried disengagement from #Afghanistan:

https://twitter.com/vmsalama/status/1425540460077010946

@LongWarJournal @DeptofDefense @RoryStewartUK @oryxspioenkop Alarming -- the #Taliban's capture of #Kunduz Airport has brought an enormous haul of heavy weaponry -- including a T-62 tank, 4+ MaxxPro MRAPs (~$2.1 million worth), multiple heavy artillery pieces + dozens of armored Humvees & U.S.-provided pick-ups.

@LongWarJournal @DeptofDefense @RoryStewartUK @oryxspioenkop The #Taliban captured their 10th provincial capital overnight: #Ghazni.

Today, fighting has reached the center of #Kandahar (#Afghanistan's 2nd largest city) & #Herat.

For now, the #Taliban control ~66% of #Afghanistan -- 4 months ago, that was ~15%.

@LongWarJournal @DeptofDefense @RoryStewartUK @oryxspioenkop NEW - the #Taliban is claiming to have captured #Kandahar, #Afghanistan's 2nd city -- but fighting is still audible, so watch for more verifying info.

Meanwhile:

- #Herat's citadel just fell;
- Lashkar Gah's central prison was just captured & emptied.

@LongWarJournal @DeptofDefense @RoryStewartUK @oryxspioenkop BREAKING -- The U.S. Embassy in #Afghanistan has called on all U.S. citizens to leave the country "immediately."

Guidance comes as the #Taliban entered (soon to capture?) #Kandahar, #Herat & #Lashkargah earlier today.

@LongWarJournal @DeptofDefense @RoryStewartUK @oryxspioenkop BREAKING -- the #Taliban claims to have captured #Herat, after taking control of the Governor's HQ, Police HQ & city center. Ismail Khan's whereabouts are unknown.

In #Kandahar, the focus of [street-street] fighting is now limited to one central district.

@LongWarJournal @DeptofDefense @RoryStewartUK @oryxspioenkop With the fall of #Herat, the #Taliban now controls 11/34 of #Afghanistan's provincial capitals -- with the fate of #Kandahar hanging in the balance.

The last 4 months have been dreadful, but today feels like a turning point -- #Kabul's in big, big trouble.

@LongWarJournal @DeptofDefense @RoryStewartUK @oryxspioenkop NEW - Provincial capital No.12 falls to the #Taliban; mass surrender reported in Qala-e-Naw, capital of #Badghis.

The dominos are falling.

@LongWarJournal @DeptofDefense @RoryStewartUK @oryxspioenkop NEW - The U.S. Embassy is preparing for a substantial evacuation from #Kabul. U.S. troops are flying into #Afghanistan to secure their departure.

@LongWarJournal @DeptofDefense @RoryStewartUK @oryxspioenkop BREAKING -- early reports claiming that the #Taliban has now taken #Lashkargah, capital of #Helmand.

@LongWarJournal @DeptofDefense @RoryStewartUK @oryxspioenkop Let me get this straight -- we're now looking to send a few 1,000 troops to rescue those left behind by an earlier order to withdraw a few 1,000 troops?

https://twitter.com/nktpnd/status/1425885831588372480

@LongWarJournal @DeptofDefense @RoryStewartUK @oryxspioenkop NEW -- the #UK government is flying troops to #Afghanistan to secure the evacuation of its citizens (via @AFP)

@LongWarJournal @DeptofDefense @RoryStewartUK @oryxspioenkop @AFP The most frustrating thing about watching #Afghanistan unfold is that *everyone* I've spoken to in recent weeks at/recently out of DOD & the IC knew this #Afghanistan withdrawal would end up being a disaster.

Everyone.

This was not a popular decision.

@LongWarJournal @DeptofDefense @RoryStewartUK @oryxspioenkop @AFP NEW - Several legit-looking reports that #Kandahar has fallen to the #Taliban, after last remaining ANSF were given safe passage to flee.

A truly calamitous day for #Afghanistan -- and the world, if it cares.

@LongWarJournal @DeptofDefense @RoryStewartUK @oryxspioenkop @AFP The #Biden administration's decision to hurriedly withdraw from #Afghanistan has been an unmitigated disaster -- and the effects are barely being felt yet, for Afghans, their region & the world.

My latest, for @MiddleEastInst:

mei.edu/blog/taliban-v…

@LongWarJournal @DeptofDefense @RoryStewartUK @oryxspioenkop @AFP @MiddleEastInst With the apparent confirmation that #Kandahar has fallen, the #Taliban have now launched an assault on Pol-e-Alam, capital of #Logar province -- 70km south of #Kabul.

@LongWarJournal @DeptofDefense @RoryStewartUK @oryxspioenkop @AFP @MiddleEastInst This AM, the #Taliban took 3 more provincial capitals: Pol-e-Alam (Logar), Firuzkoh (Ghor) & Qalat (Zabul).

All of #Uruzgan province fell too.

At #Kandahar & Herat Airports, an enormous quantity of weapons & 4 helicopters taken.

In #Herat, Ismail Khan surrendered & captured.

@LongWarJournal @DeptofDefense @RoryStewartUK @oryxspioenkop @AFP @MiddleEastInst NEW - the #Taliban is in the midst of taking control of #Gardez (#Paktia) -- leaving them in control of 19 of #Afghanistan's provincial capitals.

Main roadways to #Kabul are now shut -- #Ghani's government has days left, it'd seem.

@RoryStewartUK @MiddleEastInst "Training a man to fight with his eyes open & then blindfolding him before his title bout is going to have only one result."

- This thread by @TomTugendhat, the Chair of the #UK's Foreign Affairs Committee is excellent. And the truth. Read every word:

https://twitter.com/TomTugendhat/status/1425919651469565955

@RoryStewartUK @MiddleEastInst @TomTugendhat And this thread by @PaulDMiller2 takes apart the *many* myths being sold by those deceitfully covering for the disaster that the #Afghanistan withdrawal has created.

Read every single one.

https://twitter.com/PaulDMiller2/status/1425853768344735749

@RoryStewartUK @MiddleEastInst @TomTugendhat @PaulDMiller2 The idea that existing foreign entanglements/engagements (like #Afghanistan) aren't part of "great power competition" is patently absurd.

Disengaging from one & turning over an entire country to a terrorist organization -- that's a recipe for swiftly losing that competition.

@RoryStewartUK @MiddleEastInst @TomTugendhat @PaulDMiller2 "It's much easier to see now [the U.S. has] left just how much they were doing with a light footprint over the last 5yrs... Now it's extraordinary... I wouldn't know if I was a #UK diplomat how to adjust to this type of [U.S.] behavior."

@RoryStewartUK:

pscp.tv/w/1RDxlPlwLjqxL

@RoryStewartUK @MiddleEastInst @TomTugendhat @PaulDMiller2 Reliable sources say the #Taliban have begun internal leadership talks about the structure of their future government -- as their forces begin isolating #Kabul for a final push.

28 days until 9/11's 20yr anniversary.

@RoryStewartUK @MiddleEastInst @TomTugendhat @PaulDMiller2 The messaging from the #Biden Administration is pulling the wool over people's eyes on #Afghanistan -- compare & contrast:

@RoryStewartUK @MiddleEastInst @TomTugendhat @PaulDMiller2 Having neutralized its most significant provincial & ethnic adversaries (mostly in north & west), the #Taliban look likely to channel their #Kabul push from the south -- through #Logar.

They could take a breather & regroup, but expect them to push on & begin things this weekend.

@RoryStewartUK @MiddleEastInst @TomTugendhat @PaulDMiller2 Having surrendered & apparently flipped to the #Taliban, notorious #Afghan warlord Ismail Khan (on right) is now reportedly en route to #Kabul from #Herat, to deliver a #Taliban message (i.e. ultimatum) to Ashraf Ghani.

Extraordinary about-turns.

@RoryStewartUK @MiddleEastInst @TomTugendhat @PaulDMiller2 NEW -- the #Taliban have captured Maidan Shah, the capital of #Wardak province.

That brings them to within 15-20km of #Kabul.

@RoryStewartUK @MiddleEastInst @TomTugendhat @PaulDMiller2 A lot of attention has been given (rightly) to the #Taliban's capture of heavy weaponry across #Afghanistan.

But amid each victory, they've gained enormous quantities of small-arms. From one base alone in #Herat, look at this -- literally 100s of M16s, M249s & M4s.

@RoryStewartUK @MiddleEastInst @TomTugendhat @PaulDMiller2 With the #Taliban's closest advancing frontline to #Kabul now just 15-20km away (15mins drive), the U.S. stated arrival window for 3,000 troops by the end of the weekend looks worryingly far away.

20/34 provincial capitals have fallen in 6 days...

“If we lose #Afghanistan, if we can't have a peace process where we can coexist & there’s a comprehensive & permanent ceasefire & if the world turns a blind eye, then yes, I’ll leave… That is, if I survive.”

Heartbreaking, from the very best, @bsarwary:

telegraph.co.uk/world-news/202…

NEW - the #Taliban have reportedly advanced into Chahar Asyab, 20km south of #Kabul’s outer limits.

The net is closing, amid rumor of some form of #Ghani-#Taliban deal — and as U.S. troops begin arriving to secure evacuation of citizens.

NEW - the #Taliban has just taken Mazar-e-Sharif after #Afghan forces reportedly fled en masse. The central prison is currently being emptied.

After capturing several helicopters in #Kandahar, a #Taliban trained pilot reportedly flew an Mi-17 chopper earlier today, right around the city.

NEW - the #Taliban have captured Mehtarlam, capital of #Laghman province. Fighting reportedly lasted 15-20mins.

All eyes on #Jalalabad - the last major city other than #Kabul in government hands.

Since 9/11, the U.S. military has spent an inordinate amount of blood & treasure on “training & equipping” #Afghanistan’s military.

It turns out we’ve also given the #Taliban 20yrs of combat “training” & in leaving, gifted them more “equipment” than they could have wished for.

Stunning — as #Afghanistan plunges into the terror of #Taliban rule & 4,000 U.S. troops rush to evacuate citizens & most (soon all?) of the Embassy, the President talks only of an “orderly & safe drawdown” and makes absolutely no mention of the #Afghan people or their suffering.

With news that #Jalalabad is likely to officially turn over to the #Taliban by morning, it looks like the #Afghan government only has 5/34 provincial capitals left, including #Kabul.

The #Taliban conquered 29/34 cities in a week -- just devastating.

“This will not be #Saigon,” they told us…

#Saigon, 1975 / #Kabul 2021

As #Taliban fighters stand at the gates of #Kabul awaiting a “transition,” unarmed supporters in the capital are marching to the Presidential Palace.

Meanwhile, #Bagram Airbase surrendered to the #Taliban without a fight — the prison (full of AQ operatives) is being emptied.

It’d seem that #Afghanistan’s “transition” is fully underway — this was reportedly taken in #Kabul’s Presidential Palace just now:

The #Taliban’s advance across #Afghanistan’s cities has been absolutely remarkable — 6 days ago (left) & today (right). 6 days…

Credit to @LongWarJournal

Amid the chaos & confusion in #Kabul, one thing’s absolutely certain — this is the most significant day for #AlQaeda & it’s leadership since 9/11.

6 months ago, AQ was in absolutely dire straits & today, they’ll be exhilarated. 100s of AQ operatives free & a safehaven at last.

I’ll say it again — *everyone* I’ve spoken to at DOD/IC knew months ago the #Afghanistan withdrawal would be a calamity.

This new line of blaming things on "intel failure" is political distraction -- rebuffing blame for a decision taken against the advice of those in the know.

https://twitter.com/ThisWeekABC/status/1426895788341440515

"As #Kabul falls to the #Taliban, it’s safe to say that this is the most significant day for #AlQaeda since 9/11.. For AQ, an opening of this significance isn’t fate, it can only be God-given."

- My quick take on what today likely means for the future:

medium.com/@charlesrliste…

That's it -- #Ghani has fled, the U.S. Ambassador has left the Embassy (& likely #Afghanistan altogether) & the #Taliban are in control of the Presidential Palace.

There was no "transitional government," just a wholesale & rapid transfer of power.

NEW - after some confusion, the @StateDept website has now published this new security alert:

- Reports of airport taking fire at #Kabul Airport
- All U.S. citizens shelter in place

af.usembassy.gov/security-alert…

@StateDept According to reports (& @Reuters), the U.S. military has shut all civilian air traffic into/out of #Kabul Airport -- ordering *only* military flights access to runway.

** Translation -- evacuating Westerners is the priority; locals wanting to flee [for their lives] can wait.

@StateDept @Reuters Throughout the day, there have been reports of possible small-arms fire aimed at aircraft arriving/departing #Kabul Airport.

If that's accurate, limiting use to military aircraft may make sense, but the aesthetics look appalling, given the context.