@LongWarJournal@DeptofDefense@RoryStewartUK@oryxspioenkop Alarming -- the #Taliban's capture of #Kunduz Airport has brought an enormous haul of heavy weaponry -- including a T-62 tank, 4+ MaxxPro MRAPs (~$2.1 million worth), multiple heavy artillery pieces + dozens of armored Humvees & U.S.-provided pick-ups.
Main roadways to #Kabul are now shut -- #Ghani's government has days left, it'd seem.
@RoryStewartUK@MiddleEastInst "Training a man to fight with his eyes open & then blindfolding him before his title bout is going to have only one result."
- This thread by @TomTugendhat, the Chair of the #UK's Foreign Affairs Committee is excellent. And the truth. Read every word:
Disengaging from one & turning over an entire country to a terrorist organization -- that's a recipe for swiftly losing that competition.
@RoryStewartUK@MiddleEastInst@TomTugendhat@PaulDMiller2 "It's much easier to see now [the U.S. has] left just how much they were doing with a light footprint over the last 5yrs... Now it's extraordinary... I wouldn't know if I was a #UK diplomat how to adjust to this type of [U.S.] behavior."
But amid each victory, they've gained enormous quantities of small-arms. From one base alone in #Herat, look at this -- literally 100s of M16s, M249s & M4s.
20/34 provincial capitals have fallen in 6 days...
“If we lose #Afghanistan, if we can't have a peace process where we can coexist & there’s a comprehensive & permanent ceasefire & if the world turns a blind eye, then yes, I’ll leave… That is, if I survive.”
NEW - the #Taliban have reportedly advanced into Chahar Asyab, 20km south of #Kabul’s outer limits.
The net is closing, amid rumor of some form of #Ghani-#Taliban deal — and as U.S. troops begin arriving to secure evacuation of citizens.
NEW - the #Taliban has just taken Mazar-e-Sharif after #Afghan forces reportedly fled en masse. The central prison is currently being emptied.
After capturing several helicopters in #Kandahar, a #Taliban trained pilot reportedly flew an Mi-17 chopper earlier today, right around the city.
NEW - the #Taliban have captured Mehtarlam, capital of #Laghman province. Fighting reportedly lasted 15-20mins.
All eyes on #Jalalabad - the last major city other than #Kabul in government hands.
Since 9/11, the U.S. military has spent an inordinate amount of blood & treasure on “training & equipping” #Afghanistan’s military.
It turns out we’ve also given the #Taliban 20yrs of combat “training” & in leaving, gifted them more “equipment” than they could have wished for.
Stunning — as #Afghanistan plunges into the terror of #Taliban rule & 4,000 U.S. troops rush to evacuate citizens & most (soon all?) of the Embassy, the President talks only of an “orderly & safe drawdown” and makes absolutely no mention of the #Afghan people or their suffering.
With news that #Jalalabad is likely to officially turn over to the #Taliban by morning, it looks like the #Afghan government only has 5/34 provincial capitals left, including #Kabul.
The #Taliban conquered 29/34 cities in a week -- just devastating.
Amid the chaos & confusion in #Kabul, one thing’s absolutely certain — this is the most significant day for #AlQaeda & it’s leadership since 9/11.
6 months ago, AQ was in absolutely dire straits & today, they’ll be exhilarated. 100s of AQ operatives free & a safehaven at last.
I’ll say it again — *everyone* I’ve spoken to at DOD/IC knew months ago the #Afghanistan withdrawal would be a calamity.
This new line of blaming things on "intel failure" is political distraction -- rebuffing blame for a decision taken against the advice of those in the know.
"As #Kabul falls to the #Taliban, it’s safe to say that this is the most significant day for #AlQaeda since 9/11.. For AQ, an opening of this significance isn’t fate, it can only be God-given."
- My quick take on what today likely means for the future:
That's it -- #Ghani has fled, the U.S. Ambassador has left the Embassy (& likely #Afghanistan altogether) & the #Taliban are in control of the Presidential Palace.
There was no "transitional government," just a wholesale & rapid transfer of power.
NEW - after some confusion, the @StateDept website has now published this new security alert:
- Reports of airport taking fire at #Kabul Airport
- All U.S. citizens shelter in place
@StateDept According to reports (& @Reuters), the U.S. military has shut all civilian air traffic into/out of #Kabul Airport -- ordering *only* military flights access to runway.
** Translation -- evacuating Westerners is the priority; locals wanting to flee [for their lives] can wait.
@StateDept@Reuters Throughout the day, there have been reports of possible small-arms fire aimed at aircraft arriving/departing #Kabul Airport.
If that's accurate, limiting use to military aircraft may make sense, but the aesthetics look appalling, given the context.
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#Israel's strike in #Damascus today is a huge development & a major escalation.
3 #IRGC-QF Generals:
- Brig. Gen. Mohammed Zahedi (Commander, #Syria & #Lebanon)
- Gen. Hossein Aminullah (Chief of General Staff, #Syria & #Lebanon)
- Maj. Gen. Haj Rahimi (Commander, Palestine)
Since the Feb 7 U.S. strike in #Baghdad, we've had zero confirmed #Iran proxy attacks on U.S. bases in #Iraq & #Syria.
It's quite likely that freeze could now end. The #IRGC has often used U.S. "soft targets" in #Iraq & #Syria as one form of retaliation for #Israel's actions.
For months, Iranian ballistic missiles, cruise missiles & suicide drones have targeted Israeli & U.S. targets in #Iraq, #Syria, the Gulf & #Israel itself -- but all launched from outside #Iran's territory.
There's not nearly enough appreciation of how #ISIS's branches have increased & enhanced their interconnectivity over the past ~18 months.
From #Africa, through the #MiddleEast & into South & SE Asia, lines of logistics, recruitment, financing & plotting overlap more than ever.
Multiple #ISIS wilayat in #Africa have recruitment & logistics lines running into #Europe & #ISIS finance bodies in #Africa have been supporting operatives as far as #Afghanistan.
Recent #ISIS plots in #Europe have been tied back to #Africa, the #MiddleEast & #Afghanistan.
In 2023, multiple #ISIS-related attack plots were foiled in northern #Europe -- most unreported, almost all linked to #ISKP.
BUT, those #ISKP plots were 1st detected *outside* #Afghanistan, underlining the group's transnational reach -- as I wrote here:
Since 2012, #Iran has been building & consolidating a formidable network of proxies across #Syria & #Iraq -- dozens of groups & 150,000+ members, all financed, trained & armed by the #IRGC.
In #Syria, they engaged in ethnic cleansing & war crimes -- completely unchallenged.
During the formative years of 2012-16, #Obama's admin consciously ignored the #IRGC's militia surge in #Syria -- dismissing it as unimportant to U.S. interests.
In 2015, orders were even granted for U.S. forces to deconflict & coordinate with #Iran's proxies in #Iraq, vs. #ISIS.
For a time ('15-17), U.S. forces fighting #ISIS in #Iraq were effectively told to coordinate with the very same groups who'd killed 100s of U.S. troops from '03-'10 & who are again back to targeting us today.
What a staggering indictment of U.S. inconsistency & ill-judgment.
The same has been true in #Syria, #Yemen & many other acute conflict zones.
The @StateDept has told Congress the #Gaza HM data is an undercount. Why? Because in every previous conflict its data has been +/- 1-3% off post-conflict analysis by #Israel, the U.S., the EU & the UN.
@StateDept Are #Hamas combatant casualties being accurately acknowledged? Clearly not — but that doesn’t affect civilian casualty rates.
With ~20,000 strikes in 6 weeks, much in dense urban environments, it’s hardly surprising that ~15,000 civilians would be dead.
#Putin [rightly] gets slammed for firing cruise missiles into residential buildings in #Ukraine, but when #Israel vaporizes an entire residential block, it's ok & "like the tunnels of Chu Chi."
I'm sorry, but if our principles can't be universal, they count for nothing.
#Hamas' evil massacre in #Israel revealed its true colors -- and the group deserves & requires rooting out.
But a scorched earth campaign in which civilians are paying the overwhelming price is a recipe for disaster. We're watching Hamas 2.0's seeds being sown, bomb by bomb.
We can't viscerally oppose #Assad's sieges in #Syria but accept them in #Gaza & we can't condemn the targeting of residential tower blocks in #Ukraine but turn a blind eye when they're turned to rubble in #Gaza.
Countering extremism requires consistency in values, not hypocrisy.
As fighting escalates further in Deir ez Zour, reports suggest the #SDF has lost 18+ villages & towns to tribal forces.
Since the Akeidat calls earlier today, there are also reports of amassed Arab #SDF defections to the tribes, handing over checkpoints.
Serious, serious news.
Meanwhile, the #SDF continues to dispatch fighters from #Raqqa & #Hasakeh, along with heavy equipment (including U.S.-made Humvees & Bearcats) to confront the tribal uprising in Deir ez Zour.
The tribes control roadways down south though - multiple IED/RPG ambushes yesterday.