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13 Aug, 20 tweets, 11 min read
The #Taliban claimed to have taken Lashkar Gar, Helmand's capital, earlier this morning, and that's either true or soon will be; now this. Two provincial capitals down already today, 15 overall. #Afghanistan
#Taliban are in Pul-i-Alam, the capital of Logar province; it is either overrun or very nearly. Third provincial capital to fall today, 16th in total.
It was expected that Tarinkot, the capital of the Uruzgan province, would fall today and the governor now says he was asked by tribal leaders not to fight the Taliban so as not to destroy the city. If and when that will be the 4th today and 17th overall.
Today is going to be horrific.
Confirmation from the government that the #Taliban overran Lashkar Gah, the provincial capital of #Helmand province, earlier this morning. reuters.com/world/asia-pac…
Taliban pressing on Mazar-i-Sharif, the major urban holdout for the government in the north.
#Taliban breaking open the prisons in #Logar province, where the capital, Pul-i-Alam, fell earlier today.
#Taliban making a show of treating Shi'is well in #Ghazni.
In #Herat, the entire government leadership, including the old Mujahideen commander Ismail Khan, were captured by the #Taliban.
A picture of Ismail Khan in Taliban custody.
It seems the Taliban have released Ismail Khan and allowed him to fly to Kabul.
About four hours ago, Qalat, the capital of #Zabul Province, fell to the #Taliban, the 5th provincial capital to fall today and the 18th overall.
The governor and his entire staff in #Logar province, whose capital Pul-i-Alam fell to the #Taliban earlier today, have reportedly surrendered themselves to the Taliban.
Most of #Faryab province in the north-west of #Afghanistan is already under jihadist control and now the #Taliban is moving on the provincial capital.
There are various reports of Gardez, the capital of Paktia province, in the east of #Afghanistan, about 80 miles from Kabul, in the process of negotiating a surrender to the #Taliban.
Just the beginning.
Today, the #Taliban have taken:

1. Firozkoh (capital of Ghor province)
2. Lashkargar (Helmand)
3. Pul-i-Alam (Logar)
4. Tarinkot (Uruzgan)
5. Qalat (Zabul)

The jihadists now have 18 out of 34 provincial capitals - the whole south and west, with one major holdout in the north.
Ongoing fighting in #Maymana, the capital of Faryab province (northwest), and claims about #Gardez, the capital of Paktia province (east, near the capital Kabul), having negotiated a surrender. Largely a matter of time before the #Taliban takes provincial capitals 19 and 20.
The #Taliban claims it has conquered the Janikhel district in the Paktika province [south of Paktia province], capturing a lot of weaponry, and the remaining government forces have retreated to the provincial capital, Sharana.
Missed this: even before the Taliban captured Ismail Khan, they had captured the governor of Logar, Abdul Qayum Rahimi (@quayom_rahimi). Unlike Khan, it seems Rahimi remains in jihadi custody.

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More from @KyleWOrton

Kyle Orton Profile picture
14 Aug
#Sharana, the capital of Paktika province in the east, near the capital Kabul, has fallen to the #Taliban, the first provincial capital to fall today and the 19th overall (out of 34). #Afghanistan

Footage shows prisoners released by the jihadists:
#Afghanistan President @ashrafghani will give a speech soon, which it seems will be mostly reaffirming he's staying.

In fairness to Ghani: whatever his failings, no sense in resigning now. A "unity government" is not on offer: either ISI/Taliban is beaten back or takes over.
#pt
Read 12 tweets
Kyle Orton Profile picture
13 Aug
In March 1975, on the eve of the Sovietization of South Vietnam, President Ford was asked why he could manage détente with the Soviet Union and Red China, but not with the then-non-Communist governments of South Vietnam and Cambodia.

The answer was flat-out incoherent. Image
Kissinger, in September 1975, was given another chance to explain why the Communist superpowers got détente from the #US, even as they destroyed American allies like South Vietnam, and he resorted to defending the #Soviets by saying they hadn't instigated the fall of Saigon.
Read 4 tweets
Kyle Orton Profile picture
12 Aug
The first treaty #Hitler signed, on 5 May 1933, was a renewal of the Treaty of Berlin (1926) and the German-Soviet Agreement (1929), promising non-aggression and trade relations with the #Soviets.

"It is a cause for special gratification", the #Nazi government announced. ImageImage
The same day, 5 May 1933, the #British Parliament ratified a trade accord with the #Nazi government nytimes.com/1933/05/05/arc…
After the May 1933 treaties with the #Soviets and #Britain, there was the 15 July #Four_Power_Pact with Britain, France, and Italy.

So the Reichskonkordat on 20 July was at least the fourth international treaty, and made under considerable pressure on the Roman Church.
Read 5 tweets
Kyle Orton Profile picture
12 Aug
Oh, good Lord. Either send warplanes to blitz the Taliban front lines and halt the US troop withdrawal, or be quiet. This is devastating and humiliating enough.
There should be a bit of a reckoning over the "Doha peace process" because it was fictional and the Biden people knew that at least since they were in power. It was an unconditional withdrawal mechanism Trump created; they were quite free to repudiate it and did not.
The other problem is the analytical "community", which provided cover for officials by treating the "peace process" with the Taliban as if it was a real thing, and in some cases recycling official talking points, despite the blatant facts before everyone's eyes.
Read 5 tweets
Kyle Orton Profile picture
12 Aug
#Taliban have captured 10 provincial capitals:

1. Zaranj (Nimruz province), 6 Aug
2. Sheberghan (Jawzjan), 7 Aug
3-5. Sar-i-Pul, Kunduz, and Taluqan (Takhar), 8 Aug
6. Aybak (Samangan), 9 Aug
7-9. Pul-i-Khumri (Baghlan), Farah, Faizabad (Badakhshan), 10 Aug
10. Ghazni, 12 Aug
Fairly visible on this map [nyti.ms/3m0S5Ef] the main holdouts are the Hazarajat, some areas surrounding Kabul, and parts of Balkh province around Mazar-i-Sharif.

Herat in the west, and Kandahar and Lashkar Gah (Helmand) in the south, do not seem likely to hold for long. Image
One provincial capital has fallen in #Afghanistan already today; unwise to bet against a second going down and maybe three. By the end of the week and surely by the end of next, half or more of the 34 provincial capitals will be gone, de facto the whole north, west, and south.
Read 9 tweets
Kyle Orton Profile picture
7 Jun
In the early 1960s, Arab governments made a serious effort, including using Arab Christian churches, to lobby against Vatican II's then-impending decision to lift the charge of deicide against the Jews - an issue unrelated to Israel, and indeed in violation of Qur'anic doctrine.
#pt: "Semites and Antisemites", p. 221
It seems the Arab states had some success in getting the final statement of the Second Vatican Council watered down on the issue of lifting from the Jews the charge that they were collectively guilty of the murder of God.

[p. 233]
Read 6 tweets

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