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Ben M.

@USMortality

10 Sep

Thread on how to calculate Vaccine Efficiacy (VE) as defined by CDC, and deep dive into MA Barnstable County MWWR outbreak case data.

⬇️⬇️⬇️ 1/n

#Covid #Covid19 #Covid_19 #Corona #Coronavirus

In order to Calculate VE, we need to calculate Risk Ratio (RR).
CDC, in their epidemiological handbook, gives this definition/example for Varicella:

Then we can calculate the VE as follows:

Read 10 tweets

Ben M.

@USMortality

10 Sep

Playing around with VE and p-value calculation.

CDC, gives examples at: cdc.gov/csels/dsepd/ss…

I copied their example to Google Sheets.

Their example is significant at 90% confidence.

It requires knowledge of "non-case" group. (test negative) do we have that along with vaxx?

@RanIsraeli

AFAIK, CDC does not publish data, grouped by?

Vaccinated: PCR+ / PCR-
Unvaccinated: PCR+ / PCR-

Not even the UK Technical data, has all this information.

Does Israel provide, @RanIsraeli?

So IMO, we cannot even calculate VE properly...

Of course even if we had PCR- (PCR negative tests).

The two groups might still not be comparable to each other... (age/co-morbidities, etc.)

Read 4 tweets

Ben M.

@USMortality

24 Aug

#Germany is now a vaccine mandated country:

1) Only vaccinated are allowed
2) Tested are accepted, but self-pay starting 10/11
3) Recovered only valid for 5 months, then 1 booster needed.

What world do we live in?

#MedicalApartheid #Covid #Covid19 #Corona #Coronavirus

Fun fact though, everyone still has to wear masks and boosters are likely to be rolled out soon...

https://twitter.com/nhaerting/status/1430152316670390277?s=20

And now first German state's are starting to only allow vaccinated and 5month-recovered:

https://twitter.com/nhaerting/status/1430152316670390277?s=20

It's a joke!

Read 4 tweets

Ben M.

@USMortality

22 Aug

https://twitter.com/MLevitt_NP2013/status/1426562485474127877

So I took Michaels Excel spreadsheet, imported it into Google Sheets and added the following features:

✅ Automatic Case Import (via OWID)
✅ Smooth w/ Gauss Window Fun.
✅ Most Recent Outbreak Detection
✅ Country Selection
✅ J(t) Δmax calculation

1/n

#Covid #Covid19 #Corona

https://twitter.com/MLevitt_NP2013/status/1426562485474127877

Let's look at the US.
Currently the 5th wave is in progress, predicted to peak on 8/28.

2/n

Canada predicted to peak 8/26.

3/n

Read 15 tweets

Ben M.

@USMortality

17 Aug

Covid Deaths per Week and Age Group for the last 6 months!

#Covid #Covid19 #Corona #Coronavirus

Young people.

Covid really isn't a problem in the <14. About 1-2 deaths per week. Could as well be false positives.

Here the middle age groups.

Read 4 tweets

Ben M.

@USMortality

1 Aug

Is there a correlation between Covid19 Vaccination % and Excess Mortality in 2021?
A weak correlation, (correl=-.36), stat. significant (p=0.01)!

BUT, if we only look at the states, ...

1/n

#Covid #Covid19 #corona #coronavirus

But, if we only look at the states, that have a high neg. correl between vaxx&excess, there's no correlation towards vaxx (correl= .09, p=.66; not stat. sign.)

As an example, we can find 3rd lowest Vaxx state, Alabama in this group, as well as Massachusetts, 3rd highest!

2/n

The latest decline, appears to be solely driven by seasonality and other factors, not by vaccine rates.

Lastly, here's the two states I mentioned:

3/n

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Ben M.

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