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Ben M. Profile picture
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24 Aug, 4 tweets, 2 min read
#Germany is now a vaccine mandated country:

1) Only vaccinated are allowed
2) Tested are accepted, but self-pay starting 10/11
3) Recovered only valid for 5 months, then 1 booster needed.

What world do we live in?

#MedicalApartheid #Covid #Covid19 #Corona #Coronavirus
Fun fact though, everyone still has to wear masks and boosters are likely to be rolled out soon...
And now first German state's are starting to only allow vaccinated and 5month-recovered:



It's a joke!
Bottom line remains: Resist!

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More from @USMortality

Ben M. Profile picture
10 Sep
Thread on how to calculate Vaccine Efficiacy (VE) as defined by CDC, and deep dive into MA Barnstable County MWWR outbreak case data.

⬇️⬇️⬇️ 1/n

#Covid #Covid19 #Covid_19 #Corona #Coronavirus
In order to Calculate VE, we need to calculate Risk Ratio (RR).
CDC, in their epidemiological handbook, gives this definition/example for Varicella:
Then we can calculate the VE as follows:
Read 10 tweets
Ben M. Profile picture
10 Sep
Playing around with VE and p-value calculation.

CDC, gives examples at: cdc.gov/csels/dsepd/ss…

I copied their example to Google Sheets.

Their example is significant at 90% confidence.

It requires knowledge of "non-case" group. (test negative) do we have that along with vaxx?
AFAIK, CDC does not publish data, grouped by?

Vaccinated: PCR+ / PCR-
Unvaccinated: PCR+ / PCR-

Not even the UK Technical data, has all this information.

Does Israel provide, @RanIsraeli?

So IMO, we cannot even calculate VE properly...
Of course even if we had PCR- (PCR negative tests).

The two groups might still not be comparable to each other... (age/co-morbidities, etc.)
Read 4 tweets
Ben M. Profile picture
22 Aug
So I took Michaels Excel spreadsheet, imported it into Google Sheets and added the following features:

✅ Automatic Case Import (via OWID)
✅ Smooth w/ Gauss Window Fun.
✅ Most Recent Outbreak Detection
✅ Country Selection
✅ J(t) Δmax calculation

1/n
#Covid #Covid19 #Corona
Let's look at the US.
Currently the 5th wave is in progress, predicted to peak on 8/28.

2/n
Canada predicted to peak 8/26.

3/n
Read 15 tweets
Ben M. Profile picture
17 Aug
Covid19 Population Fatality Ratio (PFR)

For a 6 month period (based on Feb.-Jul. 2021); Source: CDC

#Covid #Covid19 #Corona #Coronavirus
This is showing the "1...n" odds of covid19 fatality in the last 6 months vs odds of a fatal car crash, or drowning.
And here is the same charts, for people without comorobities / pre-existing conditions.
Read 6 tweets
Ben M. Profile picture
17 Aug
Covid Deaths per Week and Age Group for the last 6 months!

#Covid #Covid19 #Corona #Coronavirus
Young people.

Covid really isn't a problem in the <14. About 1-2 deaths per week. Could as well be false positives.
Here the middle age groups.
Read 4 tweets
Ben M. Profile picture
1 Aug
Is there a correlation between Covid19 Vaccination % and Excess Mortality in 2021?
A weak correlation, (correl=-.36), stat. significant (p=0.01)!

BUT, if we only look at the states, ...

1/n
#Covid #Covid19 #corona #coronavirus Image
But, if we only look at the states, that have a high neg. correl between vaxx&excess, there's no correlation towards vaxx (correl= .09, p=.66; not stat. sign.)

As an example, we can find 3rd lowest Vaxx state, Alabama in this group, as well as Massachusetts, 3rd highest!

2/n Image
The latest decline, appears to be solely driven by seasonality and other factors, not by vaccine rates.

Lastly, here's the two states I mentioned:

3/n ImageImage
Read 5 tweets

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