It will be interesting to see how #Ramsdale gets on at #AFC & how his game evolves.
One thing #AFC know they are getting is a quality 1v1 stopper!
My model suggests #Ramsdale’s 1v1 prowess saved #SUFC ~3 goals more than an average #PL GK would’ve!
In comparison #Leno was average at stopping 1v1s last year & given the brand of football #Arsenal wish to play maybe this was in their thought process when they scouted #Ramsdale.
My model has #Ramsdale as one of the top 5 1v1 stoppers in the #PL & potentially can still improve!
#Ramsdale’s strength vs close range 1v1s is down to his lightning fast speed of thought & speed off the line in combination with his wonderful bravery & tidy spread technique.
Vs long range 1v1s he often loses his nerve & prematurely rushes forwards outside his 6yrd box leaving him in no mans land.
This #Rashford goal is a great example, here a mid height central shot beats him due to his poor decision making.
He showed signs that he had the footwork required to back off into his 6yrd box vs long range 1v1s & dictate the 1v1 to the CF, but far too often when he got this part right he still gamble on where the CF would put it & thus allow himself to be beaten by poor central finishes.
There is hope for #AFC fans in this regard! At the back end of the season he really improved vs long range 1v1s & started getting them right!
Here vs #SFC he backed off into his 6yrd box & held his nerve & didn’t gamble & made a very tidy foot save, hopefully he can keep this up
#Ramsdale’s overall shot stopping had performance was interesting.
He started solidly but mistakes started to creep into his game & when media scrutiny followed there was a huge dip in performance but Rambo showed incredible mental resilience & ended the season very well!
At #AFCB he showed he is competent playing the ball with his feet & at #SUFC last year he showed when on form his shot stopping is exemplary.
I imagine #Ramsdale will start as the number two but it will be interesting to see how quickly he can win the number 1 shirt.
For me the price is a bit much but I guess that’s what you have to pay for a homegrown PL GK & it felt like the homegrown part was very important to #AFC!
If you are interested to hear more about my thoughts on this move check out this video I did with the wonderful @LatteFirm!
Has #Ederson turned a corner regarding his issues with long range 1v1s?
Yesterday he positioned himself perfectly inside his 6yrd box during this long range 1v1 thus allowing his defender to pressure the ball while maximising the finish difficulty for the striker!
#SOUMCI #MCFC
#Ederson highlighted how waiting deep is not a passive strategy!
As GKs should only wait deep until the CF gets close enough that the GK will not have enough reaction time to make a save, which is what #Ederson did as he rushed & smothered once the CF was within 14yrd of goal!
#Ederson has had huge problems with 1v1 situations like these in the past as he has rushed out too soon & found himself at the PK spot (rather than the 6yrd box) which gifts the opposition CF simpler finishes like chips & sidefoots while also not allowing his CBs to get back!
If #DeGea had rushed out to engage this touch he would’ve turned a 38% goal probability chance into a 61% goal probability chance as MA could’ve easily rounded him or chipped him!
By waiting he dictated the 1v1 to MA & made him make a decision, MA chose to take another touch…
Rather than continuing to stay deep #DeGea realised that now MA was close enough that his reaction time may not be enough to save the shot so he rushed & formed the premeditated block barrier reducing the goal probability to 34%!
#Karius made 8 saves vs #MUFC, but GKing is about quality not quantity!
5 of the saves had xSave>99% thus #PremierLeague GKs save them every time!
The 2 interesting & difficult saves were the 1v1 vs #Bruno & #Weghorst’s long range shot! Which beat #PL GKs 41% & 29% of the time!
It was these saves whose difficulty outweighed the 2 goals #Karius conceded meaning #Karius saved an above expected amount of shots in the #LeagueCupFinal
#Karius could do nothing with the #Casemiro goal (xSave probability<5%) but the #Rashford goal was a little more interesting
#DeGea made the save look easy & made the save far easier for himself due to his top class decision to hold deep & then use his top hand. This made a difficult situation comfortable!
The GK xG model shown above looks at every shot faced, pass received, cross faced & through ball faced & calculates the probability of a goal occurring for & against the GK’s team before the event & after the event occurs!
Thus it measures & evaluates every action a GKs makes!
This allows all GKs to be given a single number measured in goals called
“Total Value in Goals”
Which describes the GK’s value to their side vs having a league average GK & takes into account everything they do meaning GKs of vastly different styles can be fairly compared!
When receiving the ball under pressure, both #Chelsea GKs have been below the #PremierLeague standard!
#Mendy has cost #CFC 0.52 xG more than the avg #PL GK would be expected to if they received the ball in the same situations (this is heavily influenced by his mistake vs Leeds)
Similarly #Kepa has cost #CFC 0.59 xG more than the avg #PL GK would be expected to if they received the ball in the same situations as he did in his last 15 #PremierLeague games, #Kepa’s numbers here are heavily influenced by his mistake vs #Liverpool which #Mane capitalised on!