Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #AFCB

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Many believe that "all things happen for a reason". Not me. Things happen because someone did/didn't do something. Or by random chance. Chaos theory. Probability.

I'm always fascinated by coincidence. I like to ponder on 'what if' moments sometimes so here goes... #afcb
#afcb were relegated by 1 point. 1 goal. 1 decision. That Hawkeye moment. It was heartbreakingly close.

But what if...
... we had hung on 2 more mins v Burnley?
... Josh's toe had been 1 mm ONside?
... goal line technology hadn't failed that once?

How would it have turned out?
#afcb probably would've stayed up;
Eddie probably would've stayed;
We'd all be happy!


While Ed would've been elated, he'd still be exhausted;
We'd probably still have lost Ake (and others);
Who knows if 20/21 would've been any better?

This is why it's important to...
Read 4 tweets
After the longest-ever Premier League season, the three clubs that ended up being relegated to the Championship turned out to be Bournemouth, Norwich City and Watford, but what will the impact be on their finances? #AFCB #NCFC #WatfordFC
Looking at the last reported numbers from 2018/19, it would appear that #AFCB have most to fear, because they had by far the largest operating loss (£30m) and highest wage bill (£111m). #WatfordFC operating loss was only £6m, while I estimate small profit for #NCFC (pre-COVID).
In 2018/19 #WatfordFC had the highest revenue of the relegated clubs with £148m, ahead of £136m for #NCFC (estimated, as played in Championship that season) and £131m for #AFCB. Revenue will be lower in 2019/20, due to smaller TV money (lower league place) and COVID-19 impact.
Read 19 tweets
Jordon Ibe is now a free agent following the conclusion of his contract at #afcb. Lots of #dcfc fans seem keen on a potential reunion at Pride Park. Whilst this is fuelled on pure speculation from the fan base, let’s take a look at Ibe as a player, and what he could offer us👇🏻 Image
Bournemouth signed Ibe from Liverpool in 2016 for a club record £16m. The signing didn’t turn out well for the player or the club, with Ibe becoming somewhat of an outcast. He scored 5 goals in 92 apps for the cherries 🍒 (all comps). Image
When compared with top-5 league AM/Wingers, we can see his strengths + weaknesses.

Strengths: dribbling; carrying the ball; a willingness to attack the penalty area.

Weaknesses: creating chances for team mates. Image
Read 13 tweets
Earlier this week I posted a thread on the 2018/19 financials for the Big Six Premier League clubs. Today I am going to look at the numbers for the Other 14 clubs #AFCB #BHAFC #BurnleyFC #CardiffCity #CPFC #EFC #FFC #HTAFC #LCFC #NUFC #SaintsFC #WatfordFC #WHUFC #WWFC
Obviously, there will be a significant impact on these numbers in the 2019/20 season (and probably 2020/21 as well) as a result of the COVID-19 lockdown, which has resulted in clubs earning much less revenue for a few months, but how did it look before the pandemic struck? ImageImage
Other 14 Premier League clubs generated £2.2 bln of revenue, but £2.6 bln of expenses (including £1.5 bln wages and £0.6 bln player amortisation) meant £393m operating loss. This was improved by £241m profit on player sales, offset by £35m interest, giving £188m loss before tax. Image
Read 35 tweets
Now that all the Premier League clubs have published their 2018/19 financials, we can compare the results, but we will do this a little differently by separating the analysis into two parts, as the numbers are so different for: (1) the Big Six clubs; and (2) the Other 14 clubs.
Today’s thread will focus on the 2018/19 financial results for the Big Six Premier League clubs #AFC #CFC #LFC #MCFC #MUFC #THFC. Clearly, there will be a significant impact on these numbers in 2019/20 following the COVID-19 lockdown, but how did it look before the pandemic?
Big 6 Premier League clubs generated £3.0 bln of revenue, but £3.1 bln of expenses (including £1.7 bln wages and £0.7 bln player amortisation) meant a £97m operating loss. This was improved by £193m profit on player sales, offset by £23m interest, giving £33m profit before tax.
Read 36 tweets
Manchester United have announced financial results for Q3 of 2019/20, incorporating the first 9 months of the season. This covers January to March 2020, so provides some early insight into the impact of the football lockdown. Some thoughts in the following thread #MUFC
#MUFC swung from £11m profit before tax to £29m loss for Q3, as revenue fell by £28m (19%) from £152m to £124m, partly offset by £15m (18%) reduction in wages to £69m. Hit by interest payable rising £22m from £3m to £25m (forex losses). Loss after tax £23m due to £6m tax credit.
The main reason for #MUFC £28m revenue reduction was broadcasting, which more than halved from £54m to £26m, due to £15m provision for COVID-19 rebate and playing in the far less lucrative Europa League, compared to the previous season’s Champions League.
Read 47 tweets
I’ve prepared a few more of the financial fact sheets for selected football clubs. To be clear, this is not new information as such, but just a more succinct presentation of previous data. This thread covers #AVFC, #AFCB, #CardiffCity, #HTAFC, #NCFC, #SUFC, #WatfordFC and #WWFC.
#AVFC posted huge £69m net loss. Operating loss even higher at £115m, including £46m promotion payments, but £14m HS2 compensation. Offset by £36m stadium sale and £11m player sales. Revenue fall due to lower parachute payments. Debt-free after write-offs and equity conversion.
#AFCB lost money 2 years in a row, as revenue has fallen from £136m to £131m, while wage bill has grown from £72m to £111m. Little benefit from low player sales. Debt up to £100m, 9th highest in PL. Spent £150m on player purchases in last 2 years with transfer debt up to £81m.
Read 10 tweets
Southampton’s 2018/19 financial results covered a “second consecutive difficult season” when they finished 16th in the Premier League. Manager Mark Hughes was replaced by Ralph Hasenhüttl in December 2018. Some thoughts in the following thread #SaintsFC
#SaintsFC went from £35m pre-tax profit to £41m loss, a swing of £76m, mainly due to profit on player sales decreasing by £48m from £69m to £21m (Virgil van Dijk sale prior year). Revenue also down £3m (2%) to £150m, while expenses grew £25m. After tax, £29m profit to £34m loss.
#SaintsFC £3m revenue fall was driven by broadcasting’s £4m (4%) decrease from £117m to £113m, mainly due to fewer Premier League shown live. Match day was also down £2.2m (11%) from £19.2m to £17.0m, but commercial rose £3.4m (21%) from £16.4m to £19.8m.
Read 39 tweets
Sheffield United’s 2018/19 financial results covered a season when they finished second in the Championship, securing automatic promotion to mark a remarkable rise from League One to the Premier League in 3 years under Manager of the Year Chris Wilder. Some thoughts follow #SUFC
These accounts cover the final year of #SUFC co-ownership between Kevin McCabe and Prince Abdullah. Since then the High Court has ruled that McCabe must sell his 50% share to the Prince for £5m. As a result, the club will purchase the stadium and training facility for £43.5m.
#SUFC loss increased from £2m to £21m, reflecting the “exceptional cost of promotion to the Premier League”. Revenue rose 4% (£0.8m) to £21m, while profit on player sales was up £6m (69%) to £14m, but this was more than offset by £26m of cost growth.
Read 42 tweets
Burnley’s 2018/19 financial results covered a season when they finished 15th in the Premier League, securing a fourth consecutive season in the top flight, and competed in Europe for the first time in over 50 years. Some thoughts follow #BurnleyFC
#BurnleyFC profit before tax dropped from a club record £45m to £5m, mainly because profit on player sales fell £24m from £31m to £7m, though revenue was also slightly lower at £138m and expenses increased £15m. Profit after tax was down from £37m to £4m.
#BurnleyFC £1m (1%) revenue fall was very largely driven by broadcasting’s £7m (5%) decrease from £122m to £115m, due to lower prize money for finishing 15th (against 7th prior year). In contrast, commercial rose £4.6m (39%) to £16.5m and match day was up £0.7m (13%) to £6.3m.
Read 39 tweets
This thread revisits the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the football world, specifically focusing on the Premier League. Although England’s top flight may be in a stronger position than lower leagues, it still faces immense financial challenges, due to lost revenue.
First, the usual caveat that many of the numbers used are estimates, based on figures that are not current (largely 2018/19 accounts), but they should give a decent indication of the impact. As John Maynard Keynes asserted, “It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong.”
On the face of it, Premier League clubs should be fine, given that they generate an impressive £5.2 bln revenue between them. However, this disguises the fact that the Big Six account for £3 bln of this total, i.e. around 60%, leaving £2.2 bln shared between the other 14 clubs.
Read 44 tweets
Huddersfield Town’s 2018/19 financial results accounts cover a season when they finished 20th in the Premier League, so were relegated after 2 years in the top flight. Manager David Wagner was replaced by Jan Siewert in January 2019. Some thoughts in the following thread #HTAFC
After these accounts closed, chairman Dean Hoyle sold a 75% controlling ownership stake to Pure Sports Consultancy Limited, a previous shirt sponsor, owned by lifelong #HTAFC fan Phil Hodgkinson. Danny Cowley was appointed manager in September, assisted by his brother Nicky.
#HTAFC profit before tax fell £26m from £30m to £4m, as revenue decreased £6m (5%) from £125m to £119m, profit on player sales halved from £6m to £3m and expenses rose £17m. After tax, prior season’s £26m profit was down to £3m, as the tax charge dropped from £4.1m to £0.5m. Image
Read 39 tweets
Fulham’s financial results for 2018/19 cover a season when they were relegated back to the Championship after just one year in the Premier League (finishing 19th). They dismissed two managers: Slavisa Jokanovic in November & Claudio Ranieri in February. Some thought follow #FFC
#FFC reduced their loss from £45m to £20m. However, the club still lost money, despite revenue rising £100m from £38m to £138m following promotion, as competing in the Premier League increased expenses by £63m, while profit on player sales fell £11m to £3m. Image
The main driver of the #FFC £100m revenue increase was broadcasting, which rose £87m from £22m to £109m, due to the significantly more lucrative Premier League TV deal, though commercial also grew £8m (88%) to £18m, while gate receipts were up £3.7m (53%) to £10.7m. Image
Read 41 tweets
The shutdown of football until at least end-April due to the coronavirus pandemic will have a severe financial impact on clubs, particularly those in the Football League, though even those in the top flight will not be immune. The following thread looks at the implications.
This is an unprecedented event, so it is impossible to be definitive about the financial impact, not least because many of the figures that we have are not current, but there is enough data available to prepare some “educated estimates”. Note: clubs are shown in 2018/19 divisions
Even before coronavirus, football did not look like a particularly healthy business, as few clubs actually made any money. Premier League clubs earn a lot of revenue (£5.2 bln), but make a net loss of £160m, averaging £8m a club. Half of the 20 clubs have reported losses.
Read 42 tweets
AFC Bournemouth’s 2018/19 financial results covered a season when they finished 14th in the Premier League, securing a fifth consecutive year in the top flight. Some thoughts follow #AFCB
#AFCB loss before tax almost tripled from £11m to £32m, very largely due to higher staff costs and a small £4m (3%) drop in revenue from £135m to £131m, though profit on player sales rose slightly from £1.3m to £3.1m.
#AFCB £4m revenue fall largely due to broadcasting income dropping £3.6m (3%) to £116m, due to a lower finish in the league, though match day also fell £0.3m (6%) to £5.0m, partly offset by commercial rising £0.2m (2%) to £10.2m. Other income (player loans) up £2.8m to £8.0m.
Read 39 tweets
2018/19 #afcb accounts now available. Long thread so some headlines
1) £32m loss after tax - I forecast £39m in Jan20 ✅
2) Mr Demin has dug deep into his pockets - he has now £21m of Equity and £109m of debt invested in the club 👀
3) Playing squad cost now over £200m 💪
2018/19 #afcb profit
A) £32m bottom line loss not especially out of kilter with PL results so far
B) EBITDA (an approximation for cash generated from normal operations) broadly break even
C) Economic Profit (after cost of equity and debt) declining so who’d be an investor?
2018/9 #afcb turnover
A) Pretty flat but balance is changing
B) Operating turnover down £3.7m due to
- falling gate receipts (-5%),
- lower TV money (-3%)
- new sleeve sponsorship (+£0.3m)
C) Offset by rising player loan fees now at £8m - increasingly important
Read 13 tweets
Everton’s 2018/19 financial results covered a season when they finished 8th in the Premier League for the second year in a row. Marco Silva replaced Sam Allardyce as manager in May 2018 #EFC
As a technical point, it’s worth noting that #EFC changed their accounting close date from May 31st to June 30th, so the 2018/19 accounts covered a 13 month period with little impact on turnover, but an additional month of expenses, which adversely impacted the bottom line.
#EFC loss shot up from £13m to a club record £112m, as revenue fell slightly (1%) to £188m, still second highest in club’s history, despite dropping out of the Europa League, and profit on player sales fell £68m to £20m, while player investment meant expenses increased by £46m.
Read 50 tweets
#BristolCity recently published their 2018/19 financial results, covering a season when they finished 8th in the Championship, their highest position for 11 seasons and just 4 points off a play-off position. Some thoughts in the following thread.
#BristolCity reported £11m profit before tax, a significant improvement on the prior season’s £25m loss, mainly thanks to profit on player sales surging from hardly anything in 2017/18 to £38m last season. Owner Steve Lansdown described the results as “a milestone” for the club.
#BristolCity revenue also rose by £4m (16%) from £26m to £30m, mainly due to commercial income increasing £4.6m (39%) to £16.1m, though broadcasting was also up £0.4m (5%) to £8.1m. On the other hand, match day income fell £0.7m (10%) to £6.0m.
Read 40 tweets
A previous thread explained the differences between a football club’s profit and loss account and its cash flow statement, as it is important to understand where the money has been spent. This thread will look at how this works for each of the 20 Premier League clubs in 2017/18.
#AFC went from £52m operating profit to £42m operating loss, due to lower revenue after failing to qualify for the Champions League, compounded by higher wages and player amortisation plus Wenger pay-off. However, £120m profit on player sales resulted in £70m profit before tax.
#AFC cash flow boosted by favourable £58m movement in working capital (increase in creditors). Spent £29m (net) on players (purchases £110m, sales £81m). Paid £20m for Emirates loan (£11m interest & £9m debt) plus £12m tax. Net cash inflow of £51m was highest in Premier League.
Read 42 tweets
One of the questions most frequently asked by football fans is “Where’s all the money gone?” The answer is only partly found in a club’s profit and loss account, so we need to also look at the cash flow statement to get the full picture. Some thoughts in the following thread.
A club’s profit and loss account is easy to understand, as it is basically revenue less expenses (mainly player wages), but this is an accounting profit based on the accruals concept, which can be very different from actual cash movements.
This is important, as the main reason that football clubs fail is cash flow problems. It does not matter how large your revenue is (or your profits are), if you do not have the cash to pay your players, suppliers or indeed the taxman, then you will find yourself in trouble.
Read 39 tweets
In preparation for the upcoming 2018/19 Premier League season, I thought that it might be interesting to look at the transfer spend over the last decade, including the growing impact on debt. The analysis is split between 3 periods: last 3 years, last 5 years and last 10 years.
The transfer fees spend is taken from the clubs’ cash flow statements, as this is the only completely accurate source of data. However, it is worth noting that this does not always represent the full cost of transfers, due to the (increasing) use of stage payments.
In the very few cases where a cash flow statement was not available, e.g. if a club only published abbreviated accounts while they were in lower leagues, I have taken data for those years from the Transfermarkt website.
Read 24 tweets

I’ve seen a lot of people asking the same questions on twitter in relation to:

1) who will start in goal for #Afcb?
2) who will start LB?
3) who replaces Brooks?

So thought I’d put a little thread together to help answer those questions👇
1)Who will start in goal?

We have 4 GK options:

▫️Begovic - isn’t trusted & rumoured to have fallen out with EH
▫️Boruc -veteran GK, signed a 1 yr deal to bolster our options
▫️Travers -came in at the end of last yr, did well
▫️Ramsdale -not yet on fpl & just returned from loan

I could run through pre-season minutes, CS, etc but it really makes no difference. Nobody knows who will start, I’m not even sure EH is 💯 yet and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a few of them given chances this season. Personally, I’d like Ramsdale.

📝My verdict: avoid
Read 12 tweets
As the 2018/19 Premier League season approaches, I thought that it might be interesting to look at the impact of the new three-year TV deal on clubs’ revenue, particularly the changes in the distribution system for the overseas TV deals. Some thoughts in the following thread.
As a reminder, in 2018/19 each club received equal shares for 50% of domestic TV £34m, overseas TV £43m and commercial income £5m. Each league position was worth £1.9m (merit payment), while each match broadcast live was worth £1.1m (on top of £12.2m for a minimum of 10 games).
Therefore, each club received a total of £82m from equal payments with the only differences in Premier League TV distribution due to: (a) league position, ranging from #MCFC £38m to #HTAFC £2m; (b) live TV games, from #LFC £33m to £12m for #AFCB, #HTAFC, #SaintsFC and Watford.
Read 26 tweets
As Arsenal fans nervously await the outcome of this summer’s transfer window, I thought it might be interesting to look at why the club is facing more financial challenges these days. Some thoughts in the following thread #afcb
On the face of it, #AFC are doing fine, having reported profits for 16 consecutive years, adding up to a grand total of £393m, averaging £25m a year. Furthermore, Arsenal’s profits in the last two years were a healthy £70m in 2017/18 and £45m in 2016/17.
In fact, #AFC £70m profit before tax in 2017/18 (the most recent published accounts) was actually the fifth highest ever registered in the Premier League, though it is worth noting that this was comfortably surpassed by two rivals that season: #THFC £139m and #LFC £125m.
Read 40 tweets

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