Thread by @AllenAu11

#CTM has done a masterful job in building an accurate pricing model for #BTC. Kudos to @jclcapital, @irandall13 & @tboydsto.

Using TA, trend angles & parabolas, I also built one on a log BLX chart.

Projected Cycle Top
- Price: $340K
- Date: 12/20/21 (=Top Cap Model's)

1/ How is the #BTC model built?
a. Use log scale on price.
b. Draw parallel trend lines to connect the highs and lows of candles & use Tradingview's auto feature to clone the parallel trend lines.
c. Draw parabolas to fit all the lows of each cycle.

2/
d. The parabolas should intersect at the market top of a cycle. On the BLX chart, 12/4/2013 & 12/16/2017 are used as the dates for the market tops instead.
e. A trend line is drawn to connect the market tops of #BTC in 2013 & 2017 (blue).

3/
f. Trend angles are drawn from the mid-cycle correction to the market tops. These will intersect the blue trend line & one of the parallel trend lines.
h. The cycle top should intersect the blue trend line & one of the parallel trend lines. This occurs around 12/20/2021.

4/ Findings:
i. Cycle top price: ~$340K
ii. The trend angle from the mid-cycle correction to the cycle peak is 60° or approx. the avg. of the last 2 cycles.
iii. The parabola for the next cycle is drawn as it should intersect at the market top of this cycle. The cycle low ~$72K.