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Allen Au 🧢

24 Aug, 13 tweets, 7 min read

𝗖𝗧𝗠 #𝗕𝗧𝗖 𝗢𝗻-𝗖𝗵𝗮𝗶𝗻 𝗠𝗲𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗰 𝗗𝗮𝘀𝗵𝗯𝗼𝗮𝗿𝗱: 𝗪𝗸 𝟯𝟯 '𝟮𝟭

Price Action Indicators

TLDR: 📈
1. Miner metrics- Bullish
2. Supply metrics- Slightly bullish
3. Institution demand- Slightly bearish
4. Network metric- Slightly bullish
5. Trading- Buy

𝟭. 𝗠𝗶𝗻𝗲𝗿 𝗠𝗲𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗰𝘀
a. The mean hash rate for #BTC miners has bottomed & is trending higher. It's forming an ascending channel, which is a bullish pattern.

It's bounced back from the bottom to the middle section of the channel as BTC's price hovers ~$50K. Bullish.

1b (i) The Hash Ribbon is a market indicator that assumes that #BTC's price tends to reach a bottom when miners capitulate & that's when BTC's price momentum switches from negative to positive- a good buying opportunity.

1b (ii) The Hash Ribbon flashed buy signals twice during this bull phase & #BTC's price rallied by 1.5x-2.6x. Hash Ribbon has flashed buy signal again. If history repeats, this will put BTC between $61K-$106K!

1c. #BTC miner balance is increasing, indicating miners are accumulating BTC.

Weekly change: +1864 BTC
Monthly change: +2329 BTC

Bullish!

𝟮. 𝗦𝘂𝗽𝗽𝗹𝘆 𝗠𝗲𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗰𝘀
a. The Net #BTC Transfer Volume to/from Exchanges (NTVE) is inversely correlated with BTC price.

NTVE is <0, which is positive for BTC's price.

The chart I tweeted on 7/30/21 still holds. BTC could still peak at $360K based on this metric.

2b. The Balance of #BTC on Exchanges increased by 14614 BTC last week. This shows that some hodlers were taking profit as BTC's price increased to $50K & that slightly affected the price momentum of BTC.

2c. Last week, Whales sold 10829 #BTC, but this was more than offset by the purchases of Great Whites. Tiger Sharks, Fish & Minnows as a whole continued to accumulate BTC.

Overall, stacking sats was the main action last week with profit taking by Whales.

𝟯. 𝗜𝗻𝘀𝘁𝗶𝘁𝘂𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝗗𝗲𝗺𝗮𝗻𝗱
In the last 7 days, 16315 BTC or $765M worth of #BTC were withdrawn from Coinbase to cold storage. This is a 46% drop from last week's amount.

Institutions were cautious to buy BTC as BTC's price rose near $50K.

𝟰. 𝗡𝗲𝘁𝘄𝗼𝗿𝗸 𝗠𝗲𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗰𝘀
#BTC RVT Ratio is the realized market cap of BTC to transaction volume ratio.

RVT Ratio is now in Moderate Activity & trending toward High Activity. If this trend continues, BTC should rally like it did a few months ago.

𝟱. 𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴
a. aSOPR is in a bullish trend, meaning that as it reaches > 1, profitable coins realize profits & #BTC's price corrects. It then resets back to 1 signaling the dip is bought. aSOPR trades higher repeating the rally higher.

BTC is in a bullish trend!

5b. MRGO-14 uses the difference in changes in #BTC's market & realized price to find buy/sell signals for BTC.

Green ➡️ Buy
Red ➡️ Sell

MRGO-14 has been green since 7/25/21. Could this be a repeat of the 12/16/20-1/18/21 rally, which lasted 34 days? If so, 5 more days to go!

5c. Buy & Sell Oscillator

Simple
Oscillator crosses above 1➡️Buy
Oscillator crosses below 1 ➡️Sell
Oscillator >2 ➡️Interim or cycle top

Advanced
Oscillator > 1 & 📈➡️Accumulate
Oscillator > 1 & 📉➡️Take profit
Oscillator < 1 &📉➡️Short
Oscillator < 1 & 📈Close shorts

Buy!

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More from @AllenAu11

Allen Au 🧢

@AllenAu11

8 Sep

𝗖𝗧𝗠 #𝗕𝗧𝗖 𝗢𝗻-𝗖𝗵𝗮𝗶𝗻 𝗠𝗲𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗰 𝗗𝗮𝘀𝗵𝗯𝗼𝗮𝗿𝗱: 𝗪𝗸 𝟯𝟱 '𝟮𝟭

Price Action Indicators

TLDR: 📈
1. Miner metrics- Slightly bullish
2. Supply metrics- Bullish
3. Institution demand- Slightly Bullish
4. Network metric- Slightly bullish
5. Trading- Buy

𝟭. 𝗠𝗶𝗻𝗲𝗿 𝗠𝗲𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗰𝘀
a. The mean hash rate for #BTC miners has bottomed & is trending higher. It's forming an ascending channel, which is a bullish pattern.

The hash rate held the upward trend & pierced through the middle of the parallel channel last week. Bullish.

Read 16 tweets

Allen Au 🧢

@AllenAu11

7 Sep

#BTC had a 19% correction from its intraday high of $53K to $43K! What happened?

1. Buy the rumor (El Salvador's law on adopting Bitcoin as legal tender came into effect today), sell the news
2. Miners selling
3. Leverage & fervent speculation, especially Alts

Game over? Not!🧵

1/ Buy the rumor & sell the news. True.

2/ Miners have been selling their #BTC reserves since the end of August. They've sold 1507 BTC on a week-to-week basis, but nothing to cause the correction we've seen today. Miners are probably taking some profits on the strength of BTC.

3a/ The real catalyst for the correction is the leverage built up in the futures market, especially in Altcoins. Don't believe me?

Take a look at #ETH futures OI. It rose to a new ATH of $11.62B today!

Read 12 tweets

Allen Au 🧢

@AllenAu11

6 Sep

@jclcapital

Per Jordan's @jclcapital livestream today, this is my read on Will Clemente's Illiquid Supply RSI chart:

1a. The blue & red lines are the respective 365-day fast stochastic indicator (%K) & slow stochastic indicator (%D) over the 30-day net change of #BTC illiquid supply.

1b. Focus on the blue line.

2. The bullish #BTC impulse moves had come when after the blue line crosses from below the purple zone (20) to above the purple zone (80).

3. The vertical green lines mark the start of the bullish price action.

4. The upward price momentum is measured by the slope of the line linking the peak & trough of the crosses. The steeper the slope, the higher the upward price momentum & vice versa.

Read 7 tweets

Allen Au 🧢

@AllenAu11

23 Aug

@jclcapital

#CTM has done a masterful job in building an accurate pricing model for #BTC. Kudos to @jclcapital, @irandall13 & @tboydsto.

Using TA, trend angles & parabolas, I also built one on a log BLX chart.

Projected Cycle Top
- Price: $340K
- Date: 12/20/21 (=Top Cap Model's)

1/ How is the #BTC model built?
a. Use log scale on price.
b. Draw parallel trend lines to connect the highs and lows of candles & use Tradingview's auto feature to clone the parallel trend lines.
c. Draw parabolas to fit all the lows of each cycle.

2/
d. The parabolas should intersect at the market top of a cycle. On the BLX chart, 12/4/2013 & 12/16/2017 are used as the dates for the market tops instead.
e. A trend line is drawn to connect the market tops of #BTC in 2013 & 2017 (blue).

Read 5 tweets

Allen Au 🧢

@AllenAu11

15 Aug

@glassnode

I've developed 4 #BTC indicators using @glassnode's workbench for detecting:

1. Buy & sell signals
2. Bear phase bottom
3. Top before final lift off + Timing of blow-off top
4. Best BTC accumulation periods

Also, I've rebuilt Willy Woo's Top Cap model for finding BTC's peak.

1a. Buy & Sell Signals

This indicator is developed from #BTC's moving average price. It gives accurate buy & sell signals of BTC.

It's simple to use: Whenever BTC's price is above the orange trend line, buy. Otherwise, sell.

It's now a good time to buy #Bitcoin!

1b. To simplify things further, I have made an oscillator for this Buy & Sell Signals indicator.

Note that when this oscillator > 2, #BTC is near an interim top or cycle top.

Oscillator >= 1 ➡️ Buy
Oscillator < 1➡️ Sell
Oscillator >2 ➡️ Near interim or cycle top

Read 12 tweets

Allen Au 🧢

@AllenAu11

13 Aug

Deducing #BTC's Peak Price from its Golden Crosses*

TLDR: There'd be a relationship between when the first golden cross occurs after a BTC bear phase & its peak price. The secret lies in "4".

If so, BTC's peak price may be $143K in this cycle (see Notes).

*50d EMA 🔀 200d EMA

1/ Right before the 1st halving, a golden cross occurred & #BTC rallied 235x from the golden cross daily closing price to the 2nd cycle top.

Similarly, after the bear phase of the 2nd cycle, a golden cross occurred & BTC's price rallied 60x to the 3rd cycle top.

NB: 235/60= ~4

2a/ Right after the bear phase of the 3rd cycle, a golden cross also occurred & #BTC's price rallied 12.5X from the golden cross daily closing price to its ATH of $64.9K.

A mid-cycle correction ensued where BTC corrected by 55% & BTC's price dipped below its 200 day EMA.

Read 7 tweets

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