Per Jordan's @jclcapital livestream today, this is my read on Will Clemente's Illiquid Supply RSI chart:
1a. The blue & red lines are the respective 365-day fast stochastic indicator (%K) & slow stochastic indicator (%D) over the 30-day net change of #BTC illiquid supply.
1a. The blue & red lines are the respective 365-day fast stochastic indicator (%K) & slow stochastic indicator (%D) over the 30-day net change of #BTC illiquid supply.
1b. Focus on the blue line.
2. The bullish #BTC impulse moves had come when after the blue line crosses from below the purple zone (20) to above the purple zone (80).
3. The vertical green lines mark the start of the bullish price action.
2. The bullish #BTC impulse moves had come when after the blue line crosses from below the purple zone (20) to above the purple zone (80).
3. The vertical green lines mark the start of the bullish price action.
4. The upward price momentum is measured by the slope of the line linking the peak & trough of the crosses. The steeper the slope, the higher the upward price momentum & vice versa.
5. The blue line just crossed from below the purple zone to above the purple zone. The line linking the peak & trough of the crosses has the steepest slope by far. Will is predicting a massive bullish price movement for #BTC is in the making.
6. A green line marks the beginning of the latest bullish price action at ~$30K.
7. The last time when the slope of the line is this steep, #BTC had a 4x price increase. So Will is predicting a larger increase this time & the BTC price could go up above $120K.
7. The last time when the slope of the line is this steep, #BTC had a 4x price increase. So Will is predicting a larger increase this time & the BTC price could go up above $120K.
8. Summary thoughts:
a. It's unclear how each vertical green line is aligned to the start of a #BTC bullish impulse move. It is roughly where the blue line crosses the top of the purple zone. Perhaps, a green zone could better depict a range when the start of the move happens.
a. It's unclear how each vertical green line is aligned to the start of a #BTC bullish impulse move. It is roughly where the blue line crosses the top of the purple zone. Perhaps, a green zone could better depict a range when the start of the move happens.
8b. The indicators can be used to predict the start & extent of the bullish impulse moves for #BTC, but they neither predict the peak nor the timing of the peak of these impulse moves.
8c. Likewise, they cannot be used for predicting the BTC cycle top.
Great work though Will!
8c. Likewise, they cannot be used for predicting the BTC cycle top.
Great work though Will!
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