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Allen Au 🧢 Profile picture
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27 Aug, 14 tweets, 10 min read
I tweet the following regularly:

1. #Bitcoin Top Cap Model Peak Price Tracker
2. #CTM BTC On-Chain Metric Dashboards
3. BTC 60-Day Volatility & Cycle Peak Timing
4. TA

The tweets in this thread link to my best analysis of #BTC. Hope you find them useful for your BTC journey.
👇
1. #Bitcoin Cycle Peak Models

a. Top Cap Model Rebuild


b. BLX Chart


c. Market Cap Chart
2(i). Determining #Bitcoin Cycle Peak

a. Timing of BTC Peak Using 60-day Volatility Metric:


b. Using MVRV-Z Score to Exit BTC Cycle Peak
2(ii) Determining #Bitcoin Cycle Peak

c. Correlation Between BTC Cycle Peak and BTC Exchange Outflows After Mid-Cycle Correction


d. Deducing BTC Peak Price from its Golden Crosses:
3. Self-Developed #Bitcoin Market Indicators


More information on the how to use the Buy & Sell Oscillator
4. Useful Technical Indicators on #Bitcoin Price Action

a. Using CM Super Guppy as Trend Indicator


b. Using Stochastic Oscillator to Determine Trend Reversal


c. More on Golden Cross
5. Correlation Between #Bitcoin Price & Selected On-Chain Metrics

Price & Peak Indicators:


Mining Difficulty:

Difficulty Ribbon, NVT Price & SSRO


Hash Ribbon
6(i). Navigating the #Bitcoin Mid-Cycle Correction

a. 4-year Cycle Broken? Not!


b. Death Crosses


c. Using 21 Week & 34 Week MA to Find Trend Reversal


d. aSOPR & Correction Bottom
6(ii). Navigating the #Bitcoin Mid-Cycle Correction

e. Logarithmic Growth Curves & Mid-Cycle Correction


f. Using On-Chain Metrics to Determine if BTC is in Bear Phase
7. Navigating a #Bitcoin Bear Phase
8. Demystifying the Effect of $GBTC Share Unlock on #Bitcoin's Price
e. Using Coinbase BTC withdrawal to determine BTC topping patterns & whether cycle peak is imminent

9. #Bitcoin Cycle Peak Dash Board

c. Using changes in #BTC addresses with small balances to time the BTC cycle peak

• • •

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More from @AllenAu11

Allen Au 🧢 Profile picture
16 Nov
#BTC had a 15% correction from its ATH. Is the cycle peak in?

Nope! Based on past cycles, BTC is at Wave 6 & if its low is in, BTC could be onto Wave 7📈soon!

TLDR:
Wave 5 Peak: $69K
Wave 6 Low: $58.6K? Lowest: ~$53K
Peak Timing: December 2021
Cycle Peak: ~$190K-$260K
1. #BTC didn't reach its bull flag price target of $71K. As it broke Trend Line A, Wave 5 Peak (#CTM Wave 2 peak) is in.

Based on past cycles, the correction from Wave 5 to 6 is 27%-30%. As Wave 5 peak is lower than past cycles', Wave 6 low could be in. Lowest is >$53K. Why?
2. Note #BTC's Wave 6 low (#CTM Wave 2 low) couldn't be lower than Wave 3 peak (CTM Wave 1 peak), which is at $53K (~0.5 Fib ext).

After the Wave 6 correction, BTC should continue its surge to its cycle peak (Wave 7-11).

What is the cycle peak given the current price action?
Read 4 tweets
Allen Au 🧢 Profile picture
8 Nov
I will be posting a #BTC Cycle Peak Dash Board which contains information about:

1. On-chain peaking indicator
2. Countdown to projected cycle peak
3. Projected cycle peak prices & price gauges for:
a. Top Cap Model Rebuild
b. Fib Multipliers
c. BLX Model Image
Notes:
1. On-chain peaking indicators

Peaking indicator shows whether #BTC is peaking but doesn't give the timing. The closer the gauge is to 100%, the more likely BTC is peaking;

In ref. to 2017 Peak & In ref. to 2013 Peak shows how BTC performs in relation to past cycles. Image
2. Countdown to projected cycle peak

Top Cap Model Date: This is based on the no. of days elapsed between #BTC's mid-cycle correction & its cycle peak in past cycles. Est.: 12/20/21

60D VVOL Date: This is based on BTC's 60-Day Volatility. Est.: 12/29/21

Read 4 tweets
Allen Au 🧢 Profile picture
5 Nov
𝗖𝗧𝗠 #𝗕𝗧𝗖 𝗢𝗻-𝗖𝗵𝗮𝗶𝗻 𝗠𝗲𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗰 𝗗𝗮𝘀𝗵𝗯𝗼𝗮𝗿𝗱: 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝟰𝟯 '𝟮𝟭

Price Action Indicators (Fundamentals that affect BTC's price)

TLDR:📈
1. Miner metrics- Mod. Bullish
2. Supply metrics- Bullish
3. Institution demand- Bullish
4. Network metrics- Bullish
𝟭. 𝗠𝗶𝗻𝗲𝗿 𝗠𝗲𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗰𝘀
a. Hash Rate

Technically, the #BTC hash rate forms an ascending channel. After reaching the top part of the channel, it got rejected & is consolidating around the bottom of the channel. Let's see if will rebound from here.

Slightly bearish.
1b(i) The Hash Ribbon is a market indicator that assumes that #BTC's price tends to reach a bottom when miners capitulate & that's when BTC's price momentum switches from negative to positive- a good buying opportunity.
Read 15 tweets
Allen Au 🧢 Profile picture
4 Nov
𝗖𝗧𝗠 #𝗕𝗧𝗖 𝗢𝗻-𝗖𝗵𝗮𝗶𝗻 𝗠𝗲𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗰 𝗗𝗮𝘀𝗵𝗯𝗼𝗮𝗿𝗱: 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝟰𝟯 '𝟮𝟭

𝗣𝗲𝗮𝗸 𝗜𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗰𝗮𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘀

TLDR: BTC's cycle peak is projected to be in Dec 2021 amidst the Fed's tapering.

BTC is en route to its cycle peak & its price may break out sharply higher soon.
The missing #BTC on-chain peak indicators🧵👇

𝟭𝗮. 𝗧𝗼𝗽 𝗖𝗮𝗽 𝗠𝗼𝗱𝗲𝗹
This model is based on Willy Woo's Top Cap Model for tracking BTC's cycle peak. The bear phase bottom tracker is based on BTC's moving average price.

BTC hasn't peaked yet.
𝟭𝗯. 𝗙𝗶𝗯 𝗠𝘂𝗹𝘁𝗶𝗽𝗹𝗶𝗲𝗿𝘀
This model is based on Fib retracement & extension numbers as multiples of the 350D SMA of #BTC's price.

BTC hasn't peaked yet.
Read 19 tweets
Allen Au 🧢 Profile picture
24 Oct
𝗖𝗧𝗠 #𝗕𝗧𝗖 𝗢𝗻-𝗖𝗵𝗮𝗶𝗻 𝗠𝗲𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗰 𝗗𝗮𝘀𝗵𝗯𝗼𝗮𝗿𝗱: 𝗪𝗸𝘀 𝟰𝟭 & 𝟰𝟮 '𝟮𝟭

𝗣𝗲𝗮𝗸 𝗜𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗰𝗮𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘀

TLDR: BTC broke its ATH so it isn't in its bear phase as shown repeatedly here.

5 indicators show that BTC is on #CTM Wave 2 & on its way to its cycle peak.
𝟭 𝗕𝘂𝗹𝗹 𝗣𝗵𝗮𝘀𝗲 𝗧𝗼𝗽 & 𝗕𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝗣𝗵𝗮𝘀𝗲 𝗕𝗼𝘁𝘁𝗼𝗺

𝟭𝗮. 𝗧𝗼𝗽 𝗖𝗮𝗽 𝗠𝗼𝗱𝗲𝗹
This model is based on Willy Woo's Top Cap Model for tracking the peak & the bottom tracker is based on #BTC's moving average price.

BTC hasn't peaked yet.
𝟭𝗯. 𝗙𝗶𝗯 𝗠𝘂𝗹𝘁𝗶𝗽𝗹𝗶𝗲𝗿𝘀
This model is based on Fib retracement & extension numbers as multiples of the 350D SMA of #BTC's price.

BTC hasn't peaked yet.
Read 15 tweets
Allen Au 🧢 Profile picture
20 Oct
A tale of 3 adjoined arcs

#BTC's price action rhymes in each cycle. Using chart patterns & log fib retracement, the current rally high, point of lift-off to the cycle peak & peak price are determined.

TLDR:
Current Rally high: ~$71K
Lift-off: ~$83K
Cycle Peak: ~$250K
1a/ It is found that in each cycle around this time of the year, #BTC price will form two adjoined arcs similar to a cup & handle pattern.

The height of the smaller arc gives the price increase from the point of breakout to the rally high, which is also called #CTM Wave 2 Peak.
1b/ The height of the larger arc gives the price increase from the point of breakout to the lift-off price level, from which #BTC will rally to its blow-off top.

BTC just broke out of the smaller arc. Thus, the current rally high is ~$71K. The lift-off price level is ~$83K.
Read 4 tweets

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