Thread by @JosephHDempsey

I hate to rain on anyone's #NorthKorea 9th Sept military parade expectations but...

(a short thread)

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

#NorthKorea military parades are typically reserved for significant (+5/10 year) anniversaries of significant events in its relatively short history.

So a 9 Sept 2021 parade for 'only' the the 73rd anniversary of the "Foundation of the Republic" doesn't quite fit

However...

A decade ago #NorthKorea made an exception with a military parade for the 63rd "Foundation of the Republic" anniversary

63rd bit.ly/3l6xnR8 2011

This was one of Kim Jong Il last appearance, having missed the 2008 (60th) parade amid speculation over failing health.

DO NOT EXPECT BALLISTIC MISSILES!

#NorthKorea does not historically parade any for 9th Sept anniversary:

70th bit.ly/3l3maRx 2018
65th bit.ly/2MhL6Bi 2013
60th bit.ly/2MikrEz 2008
55th bit.ly/2Qk5GnR 2003
50th bit.ly/2x1Ti30 1998

For reference here is my @IISS_org blog on the 'missing' missiles from the 9 Sept 2018 parade iiss.org/blogs/military…

However #NorthKorea has a habit of surprising us!

Even without ballistic missiles on show, other significant conventional military capabilities and developments may still debut as they did in 2018

So 10 years on another exception to the rule with a military parade on the 73rd "Foundation of the Republic" anniversary

But will they break with tradition further and parade ballistic missiles on this anniversary?

en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN202109…

Switching to KCNA night shift monitoring...

#NorthKorea confirms parade of "Paramilitary and Public Security Forces" to celebrate 73rd Founding Anniversary of country

As expected, no ballistic missiles.

Also a return to paramilitary forces compared with the large regular forces paraded for the 2018 70th anniversary.

https://twitter.com/JosephHDempsey/status/1435412366418714625?s=20

If you can't or won't access #NorthKorea state media I have downloaded all 73 parade photos for you:
flic.kr/s/aHsmWAhzVi