Share this page!

Nicolai von Ondarza Profile picture
Twitter logo
9 Sep, 4 tweets, 3 min read
The almost complete absence of any EU discussion in the German #btw2021 election campaign is bordering on the absurd.

This will be a key election for the EU, but also for determining German policies. But you really need a magnifying glass to find any discussion on EU policies.
The 'Wahl-O-Mat', a vote adviser tool, has only a single question on the EU - "Should Germany leave the EU". This is absolutely irrelevant for German policy and resembles on one extreme party. No question on fiscal policy etc. that could provide nuance betw the major parties.
Today the height of absurdity was reached by an accusation that a chancellor Olaf Scholz 'could lead to the break-up of the EU', both trivalizing real threats to the Union and misrepresenting where the discussion on social policy in the EU is or could lead to.
Worst of all, there are some real policy differences to be found in the election manifestos, as discussed by my colleagues @minna_alander @JulinaMintel and @RehbaumDominik:

blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/202…

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Nicolai von Ondarza

Nicolai von Ondarza Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @NvOndarza

Nicolai von Ondarza Profile picture
5 Mar
Pre-Weekend thought on #Brexit, Northern Ireland Protocol and what it means for the EU-UK relations.

To me, part of why the UK is escalating again is due to very different lessons learned from the Internal Market Bill and its effect on the trade negotiations last year.
From a Brexiteer perspective, the Internal Market Bill is often regarded as a successful negotiation ploy. It seemingly showed the EU what a risk no deal would also be to the EU, and how serious the UK was about no deal. It thus helped getting more concessions out of the EU. /2
Following this, escalating now on NI is seen as giving the UK negotiation leverage. It forces EU attention on the difficult situation in NI, gives the UK gov the support from ERG+DUP and is expected to help generate pressure on the EU to cave on demands for change of NI protocol.
Read 9 tweets
Nicolai von Ondarza Profile picture
26 Feb
High time to think about how a possible 'reset' of EU-UK relations can be politically achieved. The EU should be open for this, but I fear the political commitment to make post-#Brexit relations work needs to come from both sides, including the UK government.
In January, in an (for me) unusual optimistic take, I wrote how the TCA could be the foundation to rebuild the EU-UK relationship:

swp-berlin.org/en/publication…

5 factors were crucial, incl the dynamic nature of the TCA, still close economic links and the co-responsibility for NI.
Others, like @Mij_Europe and @CER_Grant, were far more sceptical, stressing the pol dynamics at play in London (and to a lesser extent the EU) would continue to burden the relationship. So far, they have been proven right, with a confrontational rather than a cooperative dynamic.
Read 7 tweets
Nicolai von Ondarza Profile picture
3 Feb
UK public discourse seems to be even growing in furore over the Art. 16 debacle. But even if you acknowledge the EU Commission made a mistake, it is time for much needed perspective:
The EU Commission got under quick pressure from Ireland and corrected the mistake within a few hours. Further internal pressure will now lead to safeguards around the NI protocol.
While the UK gov is today threatening to trigger art. 16, last year threatened to violate the NI protocol with the Internal Market Bill and got the House of Commons to vote twice for that explicit violation of the UK's legal commitments.
Read 5 tweets
Nicolai von Ondarza Profile picture
3 Dec 20
Rumours are flying wild on how close we are to a #Brexit deal. My sense is that a deal is still possible, but the necessary compromises have yet to be made and time is running out soon.

To me it is therefore high time to think also about the political ramifications of no deal.
In this analysis, I look at three political scenarios:
1. Friendly no deal - in which EU and UK seemlessly continue negotiations and try to limit no deal fallout via unilateral actions and mini deals. Ruled out by the EU, though the temptation will be there in some member states.
2. A 'grown-up no deal' - in which the no deal consequences come, but after some confrontations both sides get back to negotiation table quickly. Preferred by EU, likely will be supported by US, but does not square with UK politics which will need to blame EU for no deal fallout.
Read 8 tweets
Nicolai von Ondarza Profile picture
1 Oct 20
Always interesting for EU nerds to look at the bilaterals around an #EUCO and what they say about the power dynamics and conflicts between member states.

Out of curiosity, I put together who @eucopresident met around the #EUCO on the MFF/Recovery Fund negotiations in July /1
@eucopresident A few interesting findings:
- Most meetings were with Macron, Merkel and @vonderleyen
- Michel met Merkel and Macron always together, highlighting the Franco-German push on the MFF
- More active EU policy of Sanchez and Conte got them into the inner circle

/2
@eucopresident @vonderleyen - The most involved smaller MS were the 'trouble makers'
> Rutte/NL as informal leader of the frugal four
> Orban/HU as the leader with most resistance against the rule of law provisions.
- Only EU MS with no participation at the 'balcony diplomacy' were Romania + Cyprus
/3
Read 4 tweets
Nicolai von Ondarza Profile picture
24 Sep 20
Today will be the 70th #Königswinter Conference, the annual British-German exchange that brings together great people from the respective governments, parliaments, industries and academia.

It is also a good time to reflect on British-German relations four years into #Brexit.
The good: Foreign and Security Policy has been mostly shielded from Brexit, even during the most difficult negotiations.

The E3 cooperation is going strong, and Germany and the UK continue to cooperate closely in other international fora such as the G7 or the UN. Image
The bad: From a German perspective, the EU was the most important framework to engage with the UK.

Trade has already suffered, even before the UK has left the transition period.

On many issues the UK is now not in the arena most relevant for German economic policy. Image
Read 8 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Like this author's thread?

Get emails when @NvOndarza has new unrolls!

Check out other threads from @NvOndarza!

Read all threads by @NvOndarza

:(