Super busy today, but felt like I needed to put out a few thoughts on the #solana DDoS / downtime, how it was solved and what it means for $SOL & #DeFi
Firstly, I understand that what happened was that too many bots tried to claim/buy a token and spammed the network excessively.
There was already a patch that was released to take care of situations like these, but it was not adopted fast enough.
To solve this, the validators decided that they would do a re-start of the network with the new patch and it was fascinating to be a live spectator on discord.
Pausing here for a second, this means that, we have learned that #solana is indeed a decentralized network. It was impossible for "engineers" to go and solve the problem. They needed 80% of validators to take part in the re-start. It took almost a day because of decentralization.
That is a positive. The way the validators helped each other on discord and the transparency of the entire operation was also very welcome.
The fact a decentralized network got back up so quickly and is already back to smooth operations is commendable & it made #solana stronger.
There is, however, a major underlying issue and it will take a lot of brainpower to solve this. This affects not only #solana, but all of #DeFi. It was described very eloquently in this thread:
In #DeFi there is a "liveness" assumption of the underlying network "baked in" to all lending, trading & staking. In other words, every protocol assumes that the chain it runs on AND the oracle's it queries are always available.
Furthermore, to make any borrowing possible, #DeFi uses overcollateralization as a mechanism. It basically means you pay in assets to a platform and you get to borrow 100% or so on top. Then you can take the 200% denominated in a different token and use it to generate yield.
The smart contracts you pay into assure that, if the total value of your 200% (the 100% you paid in and the 100% you borrowed) goes below 120% (or so), making the loan at risk, you get liquidated and the person that lent you money always gets back his 100%. You take the loss.
This is a brilliant way to enable borrowing and lending in a trustless setting. You do not need to check the creditworthiness of your counterparty as you know you cannot go below your principal if you lend money out.
The problem is: this only works if liquidation is possible.
In a scenario where the network goes offline and the oracles are offline too, nothing will happen while this is the case.
If you then have the network coming "live" again a day later and prices of almost all #cryptos have dropped dramatically (not exactly an unlikely scenario),
loans will all of a sudden be under-collateralized. Depending on how deep this goes, it could eat up the entire principal (and theoretically more!) and it would mean absolute calamity to everyone involved. Liquidations below par would happen everywhere, token that are staked as
collateral on other platforms would be worthless, in short: #DeFi would entirely collapse and you can be certain that an overcollateralization mechanism like that would never again gain the trust of investors.
We escaped this scenario of hell because prices were stable or up.
Had #Solana come back online with prices down 30% or more, we would have seen potentially the end of #DeFi. And this would mean its end on any chain.
It's not possible to convince investors that "your chain can't go down". Because all of them can. Or become too slow.
We also cannot assume that this won't happen again. After all, bad actors now know that you CAN DDoS #Solana, so maybe they try a different route again in the future. What to do?
Suggestions: 1) Every validator needs to confirm/prove a 24/7 technical support or buy it from somewhere. 2) Every update to the validators needs to be compulsory within 12 hours. 3) We need to realize that this is a FATAL flaw in #Defi overcollateralization.
So projects and layer 1 teams should work on a back up plan. I am not technical enough to know what is possible, but basically I can think of:
- have a virtual "back up" liquidation engine that can liquidate using a centralized oracle when network is down
- use a cross chain solution as a back up oracle and liquidation engine (ie stay decentralized)
- Come up with protocols to follow in case of undercollateralization occurring (maybe assets should be locked for a while to see if they recover)
- Route via devnet (if possible)
I am not sure what can be done. I am obviously not a coder.
But I know one thing: this could have been #DeFi's death knell and we need to treat it as such as momentous event and try to come up with improvements that deal with such a situation. We all in this together frens.
So to be clear I think “all of the #crypto markets” are overheated short term as regards euphoria of holders and levered players. Usually that has produced a set back.
At the same time, I see $ETH, $BTC and $SOL all in very strong chart setups AND usage is absolutely up.
Furthermore, I am being approached by reasonably sized institutions to get them up to speed on the asset class, so there is a strong backdrop.
Therefore I am cautious with leverage for this as I do expect a move up, but may see small airpockets down in between.Or even a wash out
In terms of progression, usually the “heart of the action” leads each move. That would be $SOL at the moment and we have clearly seen that. To a lesser degree it would be $ETH which has followed through as well. $BTC is the last of the “quality” coins that should follow.
There are all these promises of "you can make it with little $ in #crypto" and a ton of influencers charming in on the topic. A lot of that is scammers trying to get your money.
But it has to be said: it is absolutely f-ing true. Here is an example of a project:
In January 2020 (1st post in the thread is from Feb 1st), I stumbled upon @0xmons $XMON token. I checked out the page and even though I wasn't into #NFTs at all, I thought the idea of AI generated pixel monsters is cool AND novel.
I dug deeper and noticed that the Dev is super responsive, not anonymous, helpful and passionate about the technology behind NFTs.
He has since, by the way, churned out numerous innovations in the space.
I liked that these monsters were fully encodable on chain and truly rare.
In stocks, after the high quality names move, all the sh1t follows. $SOL has made its move.
Wonder if the sh1t will follow…
Was thinking $DOGE, but, looking at the chart, maybe it‘s not sh1tcoin time yet. Looking at $ETH, I guess crazier things have happened than this breaking down, but seems to be one of the best set ups to be „Bullish at resistance“,so I‘ll bet a bit on this breaking up. NOT advice.
$ETH saying gm to that resistance again... Peek-a-boo
The lottery will run till September 15th. After that, if 300 tickets have been sold, the oracle will pick a winner. If not, you can get a refund from the page.
Max tickets: 500
Ticket price: 0.07 $ETH
A 25 $ETH #NFT can be won for 0.07 $ETH. I think it's an exciting new tool.
To be really clear: This is an experiment on my side. I have not used the contract before and I have not coded it either. There could be a vulnerability and all the money including my NFT could be lost. Given the previous work by this dev I doubt it, but it is a risk.
Short opinion on #crypto markets (never advice) from my side:
I think we had a very significant development in that #tether has put out an attestation of their reserves that is confirmed by an actual auditor and is quite deep in information.
That report is still showing the assets backing $USDT are more dangerous than other stables, especially due to the still large CP holdings, but combined with the footnotes & rating info I believe the likelihood #tether actually has the money increased significantly.
To me, that means the single biggest tail risk for #crypto markets has been markedly reduced in probability.
I think the likely negative scenarios now are:
- DOJ indicts management personally
- any earlier wrongdoing is settled for $ (see bitmex settlement)
I have a few more thoughts on #crypto amendments, #tether truthers and skeptics. Might be a bit ranty, sorry 🤷🏻♂️
1) Infrastructure amendment
Is it just me or is every protocol “not available to US residents” writing to their non-US users to call “their US senators”? Fun.
Aside from that, let’s get real for a second:
The US wants to get their share of #crypto taxes. That is legit IMO. As that is the goal (and not killing the industry in the US), amendments like the one by @MarkWarner will not be what the final bill looks like.
It is so poorly drafted and with such ignorance of the workings of a #blockchain that enough experts will tell lawmakers it does not achieve what they want. It is especially comical that they exclude “proof of work” miners - ya know, the dirty carbon guys.