Thread by @dkcrypto13

Short opinion on #crypto markets (never advice) from my side:

I think we had a very significant development in that #tether has put out an attestation of their reserves that is confirmed by an actual auditor and is quite deep in information.

That report is still showing the assets backing $USDT are more dangerous than other stables, especially due to the still large CP holdings, but combined with the footnotes & rating info I believe the likelihood #tether actually has the money increased significantly.

To me, that means the single biggest tail risk for #crypto markets has been markedly reduced in probability.

I think the likely negative scenarios now are:
- DOJ indicts management personally
- any earlier wrongdoing is settled for $ (see bitmex settlement)

- #stablecoin regulations that are forthcoming cause #tether to move all assets into treasuries and in that process we find out their CP is not worth what they think it is
- issues at Deltec bank

Aside from the last one (and the one before to a degree), these could be survivable

So while I do continue to think that the #binance, #tether, Deltec complex remains the single biggest source of risk for #crypto, as I said, the likelihood of an outcome that does not end in a bankrun is markedly increased.

So for the near future, I see these risks to price:

- further headlines around mining, taxation or #binance /#tether prosecution
- a change from bearish sentiment (as judged by funding and leverage premia) to overly bullish, exhausting the current move
- regulatory issues for #DeFi
- tapering by the US Federal reserve

The last point is the most dangerous one fundamentally for risky assets, but markets are being verbally prepared for it to happen in Q4, so they should be able to react non-violently.

As long as these above points do not materialize (likely exhaustion of buying is the first)…

… it looks like dips are for buying again. I can see a strong rejection soon at any of the (now close) resistances on $BTC, but as long as no fundamental factors happen in tandem, a violent rejection should provide opportunity rather than risk.

Opinion,subj to change,NOT advice