🧭Late-night NSW LGA monster wrap is back!πŸ‘»

This one is proper late ... by 2 weeks!

To the loyal monster wrappers, pls forgive me 😭

It desperately needed improvements and automations (it was really manual)

Here's how it's improved ...

#covid19aus #COVID19Vic #COVID19nsw
1. I now think of NSW and VIC as 3 separate outbreaks each, so the wrap is built around that breakdown:

- High-growth regions / corridors
- Rest of metro
- Regional

Note, this means some of the 'LGAs of concern' have been separated into diff regions (e.g. Burwood > inner west)
2. 14-day change now included (%). I.e. the last 14 days compared with the previous (yes, small numbers might mean big % changes but still useful. Also, 0 cases in previous 14 days mean % change isn't possible. In this situation, there is a πŸ‘‡ to see new cases below)
3. Previously, I used cases in NSW LHDs as a proxy for regions. I knew it wasn't perfect but recently realised how imperfect it is

Take Sydney LHD. >4000 cases in the last month. But > 3000 of them from Canterbury-Bankstown LGA

So new wrap has regions that better reflect LGAs
4. Unlinked cases removed for time being (there are so many they don't add a lot to reporting overall case numbers, right now)

Piecing this together was like passing a kidney stone. But I believed it would be worth it long-term and for the monster wrap lovers

So here goes -
1. NSW as 3 separate outbreaks

πŸ“ˆ14-day change

Southwest / West: -13%
Rest of Greater Sydney: 71%
Regional NSW: 2%

🀧 Cases (Today = Last 14 days)

Southwest / West: +694 = 11,530
Rest of Greater Sydney: +364 = 4973
Regional NSW: +61 = 749
2. Regions - summary

πŸ“ˆ14-day change

Western Sydney: -24%
Southwest Sydney: -1%
Northern Sydney: +31%
South Eastern Sydney: +76%
Sydney / Inner West: +39%
Central Coast: +204%
Illawarra Shoalhaven: +259%
Nepean Blue Mountains: +52%
Hunter New England: +216%
Mid North Coast: 0%
Northern NSW: n/a
Riverina / Murrumbidgee : n/a
Southern NSW: +176%
Western NSW: -58%
Far West: -1%
🀧 Cases (Today = Last 14 days)

Western Sydney: +257=4916
Southwest Sydney: +437=6614
Northern Sydney: +50=637
South Eastern Sydney: +115=1765
Sydney / Inner West: +90=1377
Central Coast: +37=319
Illawarra Shoalhaven: +64=0
Nepean Blue Mountains: +8=243
Hunter New England: +32=275
Mid North Coast: +1=6
Northern NSW: +1=3
Riverina / Murrumbidgee : +2=15
Southern NSW: +12=160
Western NSW: +8=209
Far West: +5=81
3. Southwest / West - LGAs

πŸ“ˆ14-day change

πŸ“ Western Sydney
Blacktown: -2%
Cumberland: -39%
Parramatta: -21%
Penrith: -21%

πŸ“ Southwest Sydney
Camden: +29%
Campbelltown: +13%
Canterbury-Bankstown: -11%
Fairfield: -17%
Liverpool: +22%
🀧 Cases (Net today = Last 14 days)

πŸ“ Western Syd
Blacktown: +105 = 1804
Cumberland: +68 = 1944
Parramatta: +32 = 476
Penrith: +51 = 690

πŸ“ Southwest Syd
Camden: +14 = 324
Campbelltown: +45 = 640
Canterbury-Bankstown: +137 = 3015
Fairfield: +58 = 900
Liverpool: +97 = 1734
4. Rest of Greater Sydney - LGAs

πŸ“ˆ14-day change

πŸ“ Central Coast
Central Coast: 203%

πŸ“ Illawarra Shoalhaven
Shellharbour: 315%
Shoalhaven: 200%
Wollongong: 227%

πŸ“ Nepean Blue Mountains
Blue Mountains: -7%
Hawkesbury: 79%
Lithgow: 400%
πŸ“ Northern Sydney
Hornsby: 69%
Hunters Hill: 158%
Ku-ring-gai: 100%
Lane Cove: 24%
Mosman: 100%
North Sydney: 38%
Northern Beaches: 71%
Ryde: -6%
The Hills Shire: 11%
Willoughby: 0%

πŸ“ South Eastern Sydney
Bayside: 40%
Georges River: 40%
Randwick: 197%
Sutherland Shire: 69%
Waverley: 53%
Woollahra: 84%

πŸ“ Sydney
Burwood: 63%
Canada Bay: 9%
Inner West: 2%
Strathfield: -4%
Sydney: 78%
🀧 Cases (Net today = Last 14 days)

πŸ“ Central Coast
Central Coast: +31 = 318

πŸ“ Illawarra Shoalhaven
Kiama: +2 = 20
Shellharbour: +12 = 191
Shoalhaven: +1 = 45
Wollongong: +50 = 376

πŸ“ Nepean Blue Mountains
Blue Mountains: +3 = 50
Hawkesbury: +6 = 188
Lithgow: +3 = 5
πŸ“ Northern Sydney
Hornsby: +2 = 98
Hunters Hill: +1 = 31
Ku-ring-gai: +14 = 32
Lane Cove: +2 = 21
Mosman: +0 = 10
North Sydney: +0 = 22
Northern Beaches: +12 = 130
Ryde: +7 = 112
The Hills Shire: +10 = 165
Willoughby: +1 = 16
πŸ“ South Eastern Sydney
Bayside: +28 = 435
Georges River: +23 = 388
Randwick: +22 = 567
Sutherland Shire: +25 = 244
Waverley: +4 = 72
Woollahra: +4 = 57

πŸ“ Sydney
Burwood: +0 = 57
Canada Bay: +4 = 109
Inner West: +15 = 235
Strathfield: +5 = 154
Sydney: +54 = 821
5. Regional NSW - LGAs

πŸ“ˆ 14-day change

πŸ“ Far West
Balranald: -100%
Broken Hill: 254%
Central Darling: -48%
Wentworth: -100%

πŸ“ Hunter New England
Cessnock: 400%
Lake Macquarie: 405%
Maitland: 93%
Mid-Coast: 100%
Newcastle: 533%
Port Stephens: -25%
πŸ“ Riverina/Murrumbidgee
Carrathool: -100%
Hilltops: πŸ‘‡ (See new cases below)
Wagga Wagga: πŸ‘‡

πŸ“ Northern NSW
Lismore: πŸ‘‡

πŸ“ Southern NSW
Eurobodalla: 750%
Goulburn Mulwaree: 1400%
Queanbeyan-Palerang: -100%
Snowy Monaro: -26%
Upper Lachlan Shire: -80%
Wingecarribee: 42%
Wollondilly: 81%

πŸ“ Western NSW
Bathurst: -26%
Blayney: -80%
Bogan: -100%
Bourke: -86%
Brewarrina: -100%
Cabonne: -100%
Dubbo: -62%
Forbes: -100%
Gilgandra: -100%
Mid-Western Regional: 167%
Narromine: -82%
Orange: -71%
Parkes: -100%
Walgett: 1200%
Warren: 200%
🀧 Cases (Net today = Last 14 days)

πŸ“ Far West
Balranald: +0=0
Broken Hill: +6=46
Central Darling: +0=35
Wentworth: +0=0

πŸ“ Hunter New England
Cessnock: +3=15
Glen Innes Severn: +0=2
Gunnedah: +0=1
Lake Macquarie: +26=101
Maitland: +1=27
Mid-Coast: +1=2
Muswellbrook: +2=1
Newcastle: +7=95
Port Stephens: +1=24
Singleton: +0=6
Tamworth Regional: +0=1
Upper Hunter Shire: -1=0

πŸ“ Mid North Coast=
Coffs Harbour: +1=2
Kempsey: +0=2
Nambucca: +0=1
Walcha: +0=1

πŸ“ Riverina / Murrumbidgee
Carrathool: +0=0
Hilltops: +2=12
Wagga Wagga: +2=2
πŸ“ Northern NSW
Lismore: +0=2

πŸ“ Southern NSW
Albury: +0=4
Bega Valley: +0=1
Eurobodalla: +0=17
Goulburn Mulwaree: +1=15
Snowy Monaro: +1=20
Upper Lachlan Shire: +0=1
Wingecarribee: +1=17
Wollondilly: +5=65
Yass Valley: -1=19
πŸ“ Western NSW
Bathurst: +1=20
Blayney: +0=1
Bourke: +2=10
Dubbo: +3=130
Mid-Western Regional: +0=8
Narromine: +0=3
Orange: +0=6
Walgett: +0=26
Warren: +0=3
Finally, I just wanted to say thank you so much to the beautiful tweeps who checked in to see if I was ok during a period of radio silence. I did need a break but I didn't intend for it to be so long. I missed this community, feedback and ideas πŸ’•

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More from @juliette_io

23 Sep
🧭 VIC LGA Monster wrap πŸ‘»(New!)

πŸ“ 1. VIC as 3 outbreaks - overview

πŸ“ˆ 14-day change
North / West Melb: +215%
Rest of Metro: +247%
Regional: +31%

🀧 Cases (Today = Last 14 days)
North / West Melb: +606=5,946
Rest of Metro: +114=905
Regional: +19=126

#covid19vic #covid19aus
πŸ“ 2. North / West Melbourne - LGAs

πŸ“ˆ 14-day change

Brimbank: 88%
Casey: 98%
Darebin: 20%
Hobsons Bay: -16%
Hume: 38%
Maribyrnong: 9%
Melton: 35%
Moonee Valley: 9%
Moreland: -14%
Whittlesea: 56%
Wyndham: 44%
🀧 Cases (+Net today = Last 14 days)

Brimbank: +45=294
Casey: +22=164
Darebin: +22=216
Hobsons Bay: +11=199
Hume: +260=2525 πŸ‘ˆ
Maribyrnong: +5=46
Melton: +29=249
Moonee Valley: +20=155
Moreland: +68=810
Whittlesea: +74=713
Wyndham: +50=575
Read 12 tweets
5 Sep
So many numbers swirling around this weekend about NSW hospitalisation rates

3 big questions:

1. What on earth is the hospitalisation rate in NSW?

2. How is it calculated?

3. Should Hospital In The Home (HITH) be included?

Let's go into the weeds🌱

#covid19aus #covid19nsw
Q1 - What's the hospitalisation rate in NSW?

The NSW Surveillance Report now tells us this in black and white (it just added this new piece of info last week)

In the most recent report (data to Aug 21), it says it's 11%

Two things to know about this ...
i) Think of it as 'at least 11%' b/c it doesn't account for the lag between new cases and hospitalisations. The report itself acknowledges this

ii) Dr Jeremy McAnulty confirmed yday this rate *DOES NOT* include HITH (sorry for the caps, but that's important)
Read 17 tweets
3 Sep
'case numbers will be higher, but the rate of hospitalisation will be much lower'

We're hearing this a lot. Is it happening yet? Are vaccines having a positive effect on hospitalisations?

The UK is a good example. This is what we want to see -

#covid19nsw #covid19aus #covidvic
Black dotted line = new cases
Blue solid line = hospitalisations

See how the blue curve stays low in the most recent wave, decoupling from cases in May?

'Decoupling' is the newest word in the data nerd lexicon, h/t @normanswan @teegstar πŸ€“
It's a similar picture in other countries which are on our radar as successful vaccination stories

Israel -
Read 9 tweets
1 Sep
🧭NSW LGA monster wrap πŸ‘» Cases
πŸ‘ = progress
πŸ‘ˆ = big % changes + unlinked cases

⚫️ State wrap

🦠Cases - Last 14 days, +today
πŸ“ 12 LGAs of Concern: 10734, +932
πŸ“ Western NSW: 582, +31
πŸ“ Rest of Greater Sydney: 1515, +27
πŸ“ Hunter New England: 44, +6

#covid19nsw #covid19aus
πŸ“ Mid/North Coast: 1,+0
πŸ“ Southern NSW: 3,+0

πŸ”ŽUnder Investigation - Total, +today
πŸ“ 12 LGAs of Concern: 10872,+645
πŸ“ Western NSW: 368,+9
πŸ“ Rest of Greater Sydney: 1122,+41
πŸ“ Hunter New England: 78,+1
πŸ“ Mid/North Coast: 1,+0
πŸ“ Armidale/Northern Rivers: 1,+0
πŸ“ Southern NSW: 2,-1
Read 23 tweets
31 Aug
NSW Premier said today the rate of hospitalisation is about 5.5%. She has previously said it was about 5%

Either way, this is artificially low because of the way NSW defines active cases

Short 🧡- 1/6

#covid19nsw #COVID19Aus
Today, NSW reports 17,999 active cases

That's the sum of approx. last *30 days* of cases

There are 871 people in hospital

= 4.8% hospitalisation rate

In contrast ...

2/6
VIC reports 841 active cases today

That's the sum of approx. last *13 days* of cases

There are 52 people in hospital

= 6.2% hospitalisation rate

3/6
Read 6 tweets
29 Aug
Just when I was about to have a whinge about lack of data this weekend @datansw came through with the goods at about 6pm

That means ...

🧭 It's the NSW LGA Monster Wrap πŸ‘»

Chart - LGAs of concern v Rest of Syd / NSW
*Yellow ~28 days behind blue*

#covid19aus #covid19nsw
🦠Cases (Last 14 days, +Saturday, +Sunday)

πŸ“ 12 LOCS: 9222, +1126, +746
πŸ“ Western NSW: 513, +49, +21
πŸ“ Rest of Greater Sydney: 1285, +188, +95
πŸ“ Hunter New England: 72, +7, +3
πŸ“ Mid/North Coast: 2, 0, 0
πŸ“ Southern NSW: 2, 0, 0
πŸ“ Armidale/Nthn Rivers: 0 last 14 days πŸ‘
πŸ”ŽUnder Investigation (Total, +Saturday, +Sunday)

πŸ“ 12 LOCS: 8756, +770, +668
πŸ“ Western NSW: 295, +17, +11
πŸ“ Rest of Greater Sydney: 945, +106, +72
πŸ“ Hunter New England: 74, +6, +0
πŸ“ Mid/North Coast: 1, 0, 0
πŸ“ Southern NSW: 1, 0, 0
πŸ“ Armidale/Nthn Rivers: 1, 0, 0
Read 25 tweets

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