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Juliette O'Brien

23 Sep, 12 tweets, 2 min read

🧭 VIC LGA Monster wrap 👻(New!)

📍 1. VIC as 3 outbreaks - overview

📈 14-day change
North / West Melb: +215%
Rest of Metro: +247%
Regional: +31%

🤧 Cases (Today = Last 14 days)
North / West Melb: +606=5,946
Rest of Metro: +114=905
Regional: +19=126

#covid19vic #covid19aus

📍 2. North / West Melbourne - LGAs

📈 14-day change

Brimbank: 88%
Casey: 98%
Darebin: 20%
Hobsons Bay: -16%
Hume: 38%
Maribyrnong: 9%
Melton: 35%
Moonee Valley: 9%
Moreland: -14%
Whittlesea: 56%
Wyndham: 44%

🤧 Cases (+Net today = Last 14 days)

Brimbank: +45=294
Casey: +22=164
Darebin: +22=216
Hobsons Bay: +11=199
Hume: +260=2525 👈
Maribyrnong: +5=46
Melton: +29=249
Moonee Valley: +20=155
Moreland: +68=810
Whittlesea: +74=713
Wyndham: +50=575

📍 Rest of Metro Melbourne - LGAs

📈 14-day change

Banyule: 137%
Bayside: 400%
Boroondara: 100%
Cardinia: 590%
Frankston: 67%
Glen Eira: 145%
Greater Dandenong: 33%
Kingston: 317%
Knox: 233%
Manningham: 55%
Maroondah: 113%
Melbourne: 74%
Monash: 80%
Mornington Peninsula: 225%

Nillumbik: 200%
Port Phillip: 24%
Stonnington: 14%
Whitehorse: 15%
Yarra: 0%
Yarra Ranges: -15%

🤧 Cases (+Net today = Last 14 days)

Banyule: +21=101
Bayside: +4=18
Boroondara: +1=12
Cardinia: +20=79
Frankston: +0=16
Glen Eira: 1=38
Greater Dandenong: +8=93
Kingston: +5=31
Knox: +3=26
Latrobe: +0=1
Manningham: +9=56
Maroondah: +6=25
Melbourne: +8=126
Monash: +3=28

Mornington Peninsula: +5=17
Nillumbik: +6=12
Port Phillip: +3=56
Stonnington: +1=30
Whitehorse: +3=28
Yarra: +6=88
Yarra Ranges: +1=24

📍 Regional VIC - LGAs

📈 14-day change

Ballarat: 71%
Gannawarra: -100%
Greater Geelong: 20%
Greater Shepparton: -100%
Hepburn: -100%
Macedon Ranges: 350%
Mildura: -75%
Mitchell: 500%
Moorabool: 550%
Murrindindi: -100%
South Gippsland: -100%

🤧 Cases (+Net today = Last 14 days)

Ballarat: +1=19
Bass Coast: +0=3
East Gippsland: +0=1
Gannawarra: +0=1
Greater Bendigo: +1=1
Greater Geelong: -3=22
Greater Shepparton: +0=1
Hepburn: +0=1
Macedon Ranges: +5=11
Mildur: +1=5
Mitchell: +9=35
Moorabool: +3=15

Mount Alexander: +0=1
Murrindindi: +0=2
Northern Grampians: +0=1
South Gippsland: +0=1
Surf Coast: +2=5
Wangaratta: +0=1

Notes -
*14-day change = last 14 days compared with previous
**VIC divided into 3 separate outbreaks, partly inspired by comments from Prof Tony Blakely on ABC Radio a couple of weeks ago. Feedback on this (and whether you think it's evolved) are very welcome

*** One reason why I needed to pause the NSW LGA wrap was to make things more efficient behind the scenes so I could do VIC as well. This is a new template for VIC LGAs, so if you have any feedback / suggestions, I'd love to hear them

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More from @juliette_io

Juliette O'Brien

@juliette_io

23 Sep

🧭Late-night NSW LGA monster wrap is back!👻

This one is proper late ... by 2 weeks!

To the loyal monster wrappers, pls forgive me 😭

It desperately needed improvements and automations (it was really manual)

Here's how it's improved ...

#covid19aus #COVID19Vic #COVID19nsw

1. I now think of NSW and VIC as 3 separate outbreaks each, so the wrap is built around that breakdown:

- High-growth regions / corridors
- Rest of metro
- Regional

Note, this means some of the 'LGAs of concern' have been separated into diff regions (e.g. Burwood > inner west)

2. 14-day change now included (%). I.e. the last 14 days compared with the previous (yes, small numbers might mean big % changes but still useful. Also, 0 cases in previous 14 days mean % change isn't possible. In this situation, there is a 👇 to see new cases below)

Read 26 tweets

Juliette O'Brien

@juliette_io

5 Sep

So many numbers swirling around this weekend about NSW hospitalisation rates

3 big questions:

1. What on earth is the hospitalisation rate in NSW?

2. How is it calculated?

3. Should Hospital In The Home (HITH) be included?

Let's go into the weeds🌱

#covid19aus #covid19nsw

Q1 - What's the hospitalisation rate in NSW?

The NSW Surveillance Report now tells us this in black and white (it just added this new piece of info last week)

In the most recent report (data to Aug 21), it says it's 11%

Two things to know about this ...

i) Think of it as 'at least 11%' b/c it doesn't account for the lag between new cases and hospitalisations. The report itself acknowledges this

ii) Dr Jeremy McAnulty confirmed yday this rate *DOES NOT* include HITH (sorry for the caps, but that's important)

Read 17 tweets

Juliette O'Brien

@juliette_io

3 Sep

'case numbers will be higher, but the rate of hospitalisation will be much lower'

We're hearing this a lot. Is it happening yet? Are vaccines having a positive effect on hospitalisations?

The UK is a good example. This is what we want to see -

#covid19nsw #covid19aus #covidvic

@normanswan

Black dotted line = new cases
Blue solid line = hospitalisations

See how the blue curve stays low in the most recent wave, decoupling from cases in May?

'Decoupling' is the newest word in the data nerd lexicon, h/t @normanswan @teegstar 🤓

It's a similar picture in other countries which are on our radar as successful vaccination stories

Israel -

Read 9 tweets

Juliette O'Brien

@juliette_io

1 Sep

🧭NSW LGA monster wrap 👻 Cases
👍 = progress
👈 = big % changes + unlinked cases

⚫️ State wrap

🦠Cases - Last 14 days, +today
📍 12 LGAs of Concern: 10734, +932
📍 Western NSW: 582, +31
📍 Rest of Greater Sydney: 1515, +27
📍 Hunter New England: 44, +6

#covid19nsw #covid19aus

📍 Mid/North Coast: 1,+0
📍 Southern NSW: 3,+0

🔎Under Investigation - Total, +today
📍 12 LGAs of Concern: 10872,+645
📍 Western NSW: 368,+9
📍 Rest of Greater Sydney: 1122,+41
📍 Hunter New England: 78,+1

📍 Mid/North Coast: 1,+0
📍 Armidale/Northern Rivers: 1,+0
📍 Southern NSW: 2,-1

Read 23 tweets

Juliette O'Brien

@juliette_io

31 Aug

NSW Premier said today the rate of hospitalisation is about 5.5%. She has previously said it was about 5%

Either way, this is artificially low because of the way NSW defines active cases

Short 🧵- 1/6

#covid19nsw #COVID19Aus

Today, NSW reports 17,999 active cases

That's the sum of approx. last *30 days* of cases

There are 871 people in hospital

= 4.8% hospitalisation rate

In contrast ...

2/6

VIC reports 841 active cases today

That's the sum of approx. last *13 days* of cases

There are 52 people in hospital

= 6.2% hospitalisation rate

3/6

Read 6 tweets

Juliette O'Brien

@juliette_io

29 Aug

@datansw

Just when I was about to have a whinge about lack of data this weekend @datansw came through with the goods at about 6pm

That means ...

🧭 It's the NSW LGA Monster Wrap 👻

Chart - LGAs of concern v Rest of Syd / NSW
*Yellow ~28 days behind blue*

#covid19aus #covid19nsw

🦠Cases (Last 14 days, +Saturday, +Sunday)

📍 12 LOCS: 9222, +1126, +746
📍 Western NSW: 513, +49, +21
📍 Rest of Greater Sydney: 1285, +188, +95
📍 Hunter New England: 72, +7, +3
📍 Mid/North Coast: 2, 0, 0
📍 Southern NSW: 2, 0, 0
📍 Armidale/Nthn Rivers: 0 last 14 days 👍

🔎Under Investigation (Total, +Saturday, +Sunday)

📍 12 LOCS: 8756, +770, +668
📍 Western NSW: 295, +17, +11
📍 Rest of Greater Sydney: 945, +106, +72
📍 Hunter New England: 74, +6, +0
📍 Mid/North Coast: 1, 0, 0
📍 Southern NSW: 1, 0, 0
📍 Armidale/Nthn Rivers: 1, 0, 0

Read 25 tweets

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