Thread by @davidptarrant

I spoke to @btaplatt about future of @CPC_HQ , including @erinotoole’s leadership, in this weekend’s @nationalpost

FWIW every media conversation I’ve had on this topic has included me going on the record. I wish others would follow suit
1/12
#cdnpoli

nationalpost.com/news/politics/…

I’ve also been asked about my views on O’Toole. Do I expect him to survive? Do I want him to?

My views haven’t changed from what I wrote in 2019

Smart move is usually to stick with your leader.
But there’s an asterisk*

*You have to show you can learn, grow and change
2/12

https://twitter.com/davidptarrant/status/1188874176322510851

My biggest moment of disappointment in Scheer’s leadership didn’t come on election night, but instead in his comments following the first post-election caucus meeting, when he showed no willingness to learn & grow with with regard to LGBTQ Canadians
3/12

macleans.ca/opinion/the-qu…

If Scheer’s issue was he catered so much to his base it cost him with non-conservatives, O’Toole’s issue is the inverse

He’s spent so much time catering to non-conservatives, it’s cost him with conservative base

Regardless…every Canadian you lose or win gets 1 vote each
4/12

O’Toole is an impressive person who has led an impressive life

I want to hear him make the case for another shot

I’m prepared to support him if he shows me he can learn, grow & change in a way that Scheer didn’t

But I’m not going to sign a blank cheque for more of same
5/12

O’Toole should have a case. His platform was thoughtful and - in some parts - more conservative than some give him credit for

He ran an energetic & disciplined campaign.

I also agree with @AGMacDougall that terrain was much more treacherous in 2021 compared to 2019

6/12

https://twitter.com/agmacdougall/status/1440194361799503872

At same time, O’Toole has serious questions he must answer

He did a 180-degree-turn on several positions following his leadership win & told us with certainty it was necessary for victory

He then promptly proceeded to underperform Scheer at the ballot box. That’s a problem
7/12

https://twitter.com/sunlorrie/status/1441856844205633538

Maybe it’s my #NovaScotia bias, but I also note that the O’Toole campaign defined @PeterMacKay as an unreliable conservative during the @CPC_HQ leadership, only to have O’Toole ran to the left of not only his leadership campaign — but to MacKay’s as well - during the general
8/12

Essentially O’Toole’s strategy was a bet that victory requires conservatives to hew closer to Liberal Party positions on contentious issues like the carbon tax

As leader he was entitled to make that bet. But that strategy failed. I want to hear how he will learn and grow
9/12

Some of those defending O’Toole are respected conservatives

Others, however, come from people who are ignorant of conservative voter coalition and/or hostile to it’s success

Their dream CPC is a Liberal B-Team with lower deficits

They could use more conservative friends
10/12

As for me, there is no secret where I stand when it comes to what the CPC should do in order to grow & win. Earlier this year, I expanded on it at length in the tweets below

And a lot of this stuff O’Toole has done!

But where he’s missed, he’s missed wide
11/12

https://twitter.com/davidptarrant/status/1372990035470004227

Also question of how many PPC voters are lapsed CPC voters

Is PPC a fringe party of debate club libertarians & xenophobes temporarily riding an anti- vax wave?

Or a canary in coal mine for fragmenting CPC coalition?

Opinions on O’Toole are also a proxy for this debate
12/12