1/
A #China-centric #demographics chain:
Demographics are about the balance between young and old. Young folks do the work and raise the kids. They are the consumers.
A #China-centric #demographics chain:
Demographics are about the balance between young and old. Young folks do the work and raise the kids. They are the consumers.
2/
China had scads in that group in the 2000s. When Americans look at this they see waves of cheap workers stealing global jobs. When the politburo looks they see waves of consumption overturning global norms. Both were right. Were. Past tense.
China had scads in that group in the 2000s. When Americans look at this they see waves of cheap workers stealing global jobs. When the politburo looks they see waves of consumption overturning global norms. Both were right. Were. Past tense.
3/
20 years later not only is everyone 20 years older, but the Chinese had very few kids during the intervening 20 years. China's labor costs are now skyrocketing, and in productivity-adjusted terms are well below American workers. & the Mao generation is moving into retirement.
20 years later not only is everyone 20 years older, but the Chinese had very few kids during the intervening 20 years. China's labor costs are now skyrocketing, and in productivity-adjusted terms are well below American workers. & the Mao generation is moving into retirement.
4/
China today is the fastest aging society in human history. According to this data, there will be fewer than half as many Chinese in 2100 as today. The Mai generation is now retiring en masse; The most expensive thing you can do to your country is retire before dying.
China today is the fastest aging society in human history. According to this data, there will be fewer than half as many Chinese in 2100 as today. The Mai generation is now retiring en masse; The most expensive thing you can do to your country is retire before dying.
5/
The Chinese are now saying this data is incorrect.
They finished a census last year. According to the new official data for the birth rate dropped by half in just five years. There was a 20% drop nationwide in 2020 alone.
The Chinese are now saying this data is incorrect.
They finished a census last year. According to the new official data for the birth rate dropped by half in just five years. There was a 20% drop nationwide in 2020 alone.
6/
That's not due to Covid. It takes 9 1/2 months to generate a child, so most of the decisions / circumstances which shape that figure are from 2019. The newer data suggests China's population will peak somewhere between 2050 and 2070.
That's not due to Covid. It takes 9 1/2 months to generate a child, so most of the decisions / circumstances which shape that figure are from 2019. The newer data suggests China's population will peak somewhere between 2050 and 2070.
7/
They are trying to figure out just how bad things are (Chinese stats suck). It appears China had an overcount between 70 and 130 million people, almost exclusively people aged below 35, and largely women. China today is a completely terminal demography.
They are trying to figure out just how bad things are (Chinese stats suck). It appears China had an overcount between 70 and 130 million people, almost exclusively people aged below 35, and largely women. China today is a completely terminal demography.
8/
There is no negotiating or state governmenting thus away. Even if the state put all the women in camps and forced them all to have multiple kids, the first impact in the labor force wouldn't be for 25 years.
There is no negotiating or state governmenting thus away. Even if the state put all the women in camps and forced them all to have multiple kids, the first impact in the labor force wouldn't be for 25 years.
9/
China crammed 200 years of industrialization and urbanization into a single generation. Of course that generated massive economic growth. But it absolutely destroyed birth rates. The ship has sailed. It's saled 30 years ago.
China crammed 200 years of industrialization and urbanization into a single generation. Of course that generated massive economic growth. But it absolutely destroyed birth rates. The ship has sailed. It's saled 30 years ago.
10/
Most of us will live to see China collapse by the numbers…assuming nothing else destroys it first.
Most of us will live to see China collapse by the numbers…assuming nothing else destroys it first.
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