Thread by @grimmse

Short synopsis of what I think the "resignation" of Austrian Chancellor @sebastiankurz will entail: #1 Though he's leaving office, he stays in power, taking over as Klubchef (leader of the parliamentary group) of the Volkspartei (the President of which he stays anyway).

#2 Taking that parliamentary mandate for the first time in his career (except for a short period) won't give him absolute immunity from criminal prosecution, but it will muddy the waters and complicate things. So he wins time. And time is of the essence.

#3 I expect him to raise hell for his coalition partner @diegruenen from now on, whip them around on any issue that's dear to them (I'm not even entirely sure picking apart the recently agreed budget, with all sorts of climate goodies they hold dear, is taboo).

#4 Why make life really miserable for @diegruenen? Bear two things in mind: First, Kurz has blown through all possible coalition partners so far. I jokingly refer to the SPÖ, then the FPÖ, now the Greens as his "Koalitionsgegner". His aim is obvious: uninhibited government.

#5 Second, he is very popular amongst 1/3 of the country. And by "very popular" I mean borderline religious. I haven't seen this sort of fervent devotion and aggressive resistance to even the most pedestrian form of doubt in him in Austrian politics since Jörg Haider.

#6 So w/o being privy to his inner circle (I was always considered an "enemy", but luckily didn't have to suffer his flock of flacks' pressure too often), my hunch is he's gunning for early elections as soon as the polls (the non-fake ones) put him in striking distance of ~40%.

#7 Given the propensity of Austria's election system favouring larger parties (@karlamov could enlighten you on this), such poll ratings might embolden Kurz to bet on a parliamentary majority, even with slightly less than 50% of the vote.

#8 A celebration of democracy this would be not, to say the least. Kurz and the Volkspartei would campaign on the line of "He is with you, while they are against him". With "they" being the opposition, the public prosecutor's office, the media. "Red cells" conspiring everywhere.

#9 But Foreign Minister-cum-Bundeskanzler Schallenberg, you might ask? Let me put it this way: Kurz couldn't think of a more loyal and efficient recipient of his orders keeping his chair in the Bundeskanzleramt warm.

#10 All this, of course, is very risky for Kurz and the Volkspartei. What if he is indicted? Or even convicted? Or if there's a coalition option w/o them? But when he took over in '17, the party was in the doldrums. They bet the house on him. Now he owns them - for good, and bad.