1/16 - “Hundreds of caves are spread throughout the mountains of Enshi, an agricultural corner of China's Hubei province. Tenglong, or "flying dragon," is one of China's largest karst cave systems, spanning 37 miles of passages that contain numerous bats.”
washingtonpost.com/gdpr-consent/?…
2/16-“Nearby are small farms that collectively housed hundreds of thousands of wild mammals such as civets,ferret badgers and raccoon dogs before the pandemic, farm licenses show animals that scientists say can be intermediate hosts for viruses to cross over from bats to humans.”
3/16 - “The World Health Organization has requested access to China's wildlife farming areas such as Enshi, calling it a key step in the search for the origins of the coronavirus. Beijing has denied the requests.”
4/16 - “The Washington Post made a rare trip in September to Enshi, six hours' drive west of Wuhan. A reporter observed human traffic into Enshi caves, including domestic tourism, spelunking and villagers. Defunct wildlife farms sat as close as one mile from the entrances.”
5/16 - “Scientists briefed on The Post's reporting said it documents a plausible pathway for how a coronavirus could have spread from bats to other animals, then to Wuhan's markets.”
6/16 - “Western Hubei is home to at least seven types of horseshoe bats, according to the Trop Botan Garden, a research institute under the Chinese Acad of Sciences. One type, Rhinolophus affinis, has been found farther south in China carrying a virus 96% identical to #SARSCoV2.”
7/16 - “In the rolling land near the caves, Enshi officials for years promoted wildlife farming to alleviate poverty. Enshi accounted for 17% of Hubei wildlife farms shut down in the pandemic. Authorities estimated that the 290 shuttered Enshi farms had 450K to 780,000 animals.”
8/16 - “We really need to find out more about what viruses are circulating in those bats" in the Enshi caves, said M. Worobey, Univ. of Arizona. "That kind of proximity of farmed animals and bats that could be carrying coronaviruses is exactly the kind of thing we worry about."
9/16 - “Beijing has rebuffed international calls for more details on supply chains of live wildlife leading to Wuhan markets, even as local officials shut down wildlife farms — possibly coming across some of the information the WHO seeks.”
10/16 - “According to the natural-transmission theory, the virus could have been passed directly to a human who wandered into a cave — perhaps a villager, a hunter or a scientist. It also could have been transmitted first to an intermediate host like a civet, for instance.”
11/16 - “A second theory posits that the outbreak could have stemmed from a lab accident; China's most advanced coronavirus research lab is based in Wuhan. A separate team at the Wuhan CDC is known to have searched bat caves in Hubei for new diseases in 2019.”
12/16 - “Some scientists are pushing for a more vigorous search for an intermediate host, which, if found, would be strong evidence for natural transmission. Other coronaviruses like SARS and MERS were carried by intermediate hosts: civets and camels, respectively.”
13/16 - “Wildlife captively bred in Enshi before the pandemic included potential intermediate hosts such as palm civets, raccoon dogs, porcupines, wild boars, hedgehogs, rodents, ferret badgers, ocelots, muntjac deer and flying squirrels, official business registries show.”
14/16 - “On Dec. 23, 2019 — eight days before Wuhan announced a mysterious pneumonia — the Enshi forestry bureau ordered a halt of live wildlife sales at wet markets in the prefecture, the state-run Hubei Daily reported in February 2020.”
15/16 - “Humans have long encountered bats at Tenglong Cave, according to local residents and news reports. [In] 1988, the Belgian-Chinese Karst and Caves Association reported "intensive utilisation" of the cave by local residents, including digging out bat dung for fertilizer.”
16/16 - “Tourists and adventurers continue to visit. At the entrance to Tenglong's lower cave, where the Qing River surges toward the Yangtze River, local spelunkers geared up on a recent day, fastening helmets, snaking ropes over their shoulders, packing waterproof bags.”

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More from @FLAHAULT

15 Oct
1/4 - France, Suisse, Italie, Espagne et Portugal: sont-ils les derniers bastions de calme sur le front #COVID19?
L'étau pandémique se resserre.
La très forte activité épidémique à l'est et au centre de l'Europe semble désormais percoler vers l'ouest (DE,AU,DK, NL, BE, UK, IRL). Image
2/4 - Les semaines à venir pourraient sceller l'évolution de la pandémie en Europe cet hiver:
Les nations très vaccinées qui ont conservé passe sanitaire et port du masque résisteront-elles mieux et plus longtemps que celles qui ne misent que sur leur forte couverture vaccinale? ImageImage
3/4 - On constate que là où la couverture vaccinale est inférieure à 50%, les pays (Russie, Roumanie) rencontrent de grandes difficultés à juguler la vague de mortalité et l'engorgement de leurs hôpitaux. Ceux qui dépassent 70%, sans mesures associées (UK, IRL), souffrent aussi. ImageImageImageImage
Read 4 tweets
15 Oct
1/9 - Oct 15 to Oct 21 -
"Around the #COVID19 World in 80 Seconds"!

Daily epidemic 7-day forecasting for 195 countries/ territories on our dashboard:
tinyurl.com/COVIDdashb

Data source: coronavirus.jhu.edu & ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience Image
2/9 - Europe -
Three #COVID19 zones:
- Green: Spain and Italy;
- Orange (R-eff <0.9) landing [close to safe zones]: ALB; Bos&Herz; [CH; NO]
- Red (R-eff>0.9) in all others:
FR=1.04; PT=1.05, moving away from their safe zones;
PL=1.19; DK=1.18; NL=1.19, IRL=1.14 are rising again. ImageImageImageImage
3/9 - Europe (cont'd)
East and Central Europe is experiencing strong waves of #COVID19, very high to alarming mortality, for 7 more d.
Romania (R-eff=1.14, 31.8% 1 dose); Latvia=1.22 (51.1%); Bulgaria=1.14 (37.2%); Ukraine=1.18 (17.6%); Russia=1.08 (34.2%);
Slovakia=1.15 (45.3%) ImageImage
Read 11 tweets
15 Oct
1/3. By Oct 21, the United Kingdom can reach 43,851 new #COVID19 cases and 123 deaths daily, if the reproductive rate remains same (R-eff=1.07).
73.9% received 1 dose.

Forecasts for nations from Oct 15 to Oct 21.
renkulab.shinyapps.io/COVID-19-Epide…

Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience ImageImage
2/3 - England (R-eff=1.08) and Northern-Ireland=1.07 are experiencing increase again, at high level, in their #COVID19 epidemic activity, with low [medium] level of mortality, for 7 more days. ImageImage
3/3 - Scotland (R-eff=0.95); and Wales=0.92 are slowly landing towards their #COVID19 safety zones, from high levels of activity, with medium mortality, for 7 more days. ImageImage
Read 5 tweets
15 Oct
1/5. BREAKING NEWS!!!
From Oct 20, France (R-eff=1.04) is foreseen to leave its threshold defined as > 5,000 new #COVID19 cases/day, while decreasing in mortality.
75.6% 1 dose.
Regional forecasts for Oct 15 to 21.
tinyurl.com/COVIDfrance

Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience ImageImage
2/5 - Five Régions are now increasing or plateauing above their #COVID19 safety zones, with remaining low to very low levels of mortality, for 7 more days:

Hauts-de-France=1.05;
Pays-de-la-Loire=1.03;
Ile-de-France=1.01;
Nouvelle-Aquitaine=1.01;
Corse=0.98.
3/5 - Nine Régions have reached their #COVID19 safety zones, and will stay in them, with low to very low levels of mortality, for 7 more days:

Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes;
Bourgogne-et-Franche-Comté;
Bretagne;
Centre-Val-de-Loire;
Grand-Est;
Normandie;
Occitanie;

Mayotte;
Réunion.
Read 7 tweets
14 Oct
1/11 - “[The UK], a nation that is one of the world’s most mature democracies and prided itself on the quality of its governance ended up with one of the highest death tolls per capita of any big economy, its fumbling equalled perhaps only by the US.”
ft.com/content/6369ab…
2/11 - “The first official report into what went wrong, a joint inquiry by two MPs’ committees, sheds valuable, if damning, light. It holds lessons not just for Britain but for others on how better to confront future health emergencies.”committees.parliament.uk/work/657/coron…
3/11 - “One is to maintain constant readiness, but also to prepare for the right risks. Though this was not the fault of Boris Johnson’s Conservative government but previous administrations, the NHS had been starved of resources such as ventilators and intensive care beds.”
Read 11 tweets
14 Oct
1/9 - Oct 14 to Oct 20 -
"Around the #COVID19 World in 80 Seconds"!

Daily epidemic 7-day forecasting for 195 countries/ territories on our dashboard:
tinyurl.com/COVIDdashb

Data source: coronavirus.jhu.edu & ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience Image
2/9 - Europe -
There are 3 #COVID19 zones in Europe:
- Green in Spain and Italy;
- Orange (R-eff <0.9), landing [close to safe zones] [CH; NO]; ALB; Macedon;
- Red (R-eff>0.9) in all others.
FR=1.02 and PT=1.05, close to safe zones;
PL=1.20; DK=1.19; NL=1.24 are rising again. ImageImageImageImage
3/9 - Europe (cont'd)
East and Central Europe is experiencing strong waves of #COVID19, very high to alarming mortality, for 7 more d.
Romania (R-eff=1.15, 31.8% 1 dose); Latvia=1.22 (51.1%); Bulgaria=1.13 (37.2%); Ukraine=1.19 (17.1%); Russia=1.08 (34.2%);
Slovakia=1.16 (45.3%) ImageImage
Read 11 tweets

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