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Eva J. Koulouriotis | إيفا كولوريوتي

@evacool_

Dec 2

#Thread #Israel #Lebanon #Syria #Hezbollah #IDF #Iran #IRGC #Syria #Hamas #Gaza #USA #Yemen #Iraq #France #Russia #Trump #Russia #Turkey #UAE
About six days after the implementation of the American plan for a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, the sirens began to sound again in northern Israel. A reading of the impact of events in the Syrian arena on both sides of the Israeli-Lebanese border.
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This #Hezbollah militia missile attack on northern Israel was not a surprise to me personally, just as I was not surprised by the Israeli strikes that targeted the militia’s violating moves in #Lebanon. It was naive for anyone in Netanyahu’s government to expect that Hezbollah would abide by the terms of the agreement, the content of which would limit their influence over the Lebanese state and the region. From the point of view of the militia’s leadership and their masters in Tehran, their approval of this agreement is what is known as taqiyya, which is to show something other than what you mean. They wanted to stop the militia’s human and military depletion in the hope that they would do what they did after the 2006 war, and that Netanyahu’s government would not be prepared to engage in war again once it stopped.
x.com/evacool_/statu…
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Indeed, since the first day of the ceasefire, the militia fighters began moving some of their equipment north of the Litani River towards new locations, and some of them moved south of the Litani River in civilian clothes in an operation to cover up their infrastructure from the eyes of the monitoring committee of the agreement. Yes, groups of the militia withdrew from the front line towards north of the Litani River, while alternative forces took their place. All of these movements took place under the eyes of the Lebanese army and the Lebanese state. While the militia began to reorganize its internal affairs in Lebanon, the armed Syrian opposition began a surprise military operation that carried fears and opportunities for #Hezbollah and Tehran. It is necessary to read my thread about what happened in #Aleppo.
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Eva J. Koulouriotis | إيفا كولوريوتي

@evacool_

Nov 10

#Thread #Hezbollah #Lebanon #Israel #IDF #Iran #IRGC #Syria #Hamas #Gaza #USA #IDF #Yemen #Iraq #France #Russia #Trump
As the Israeli military operation against Hezbollah militia in Lebanon continues, a detailed reading of the latest developments in this conflict between war and diplomatic efforts.
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Before going into the political analysis of the scene in #Beirut and #Jerusalem, I will start with the latest updates on the field reality on both sides of the border:
The #IDF are still destroying the infrastructure of the #Hezbollah militia in the border strip extending about 100 km and with a depth of about 3 to 4 km, while continuing operations targeting the militia’s fighters, leaders and warehouses throughout Lebanese territory, reaching the Lebanese capital Beirut, with a greater focus on areas south of the Litani River, the Beqaa Valley and the Syrian-Lebanese border. In parallel with the operation in #Lebanon, the Israeli Air Force is escalating its targeting of the militia’s sites, warehouses and leaders in Syrian territory, from Aleppo to Qusayr in the southern Homs countryside to the Sayyida Zeinab area south of the Syrian capital Damascus. This massive air operation, along with the assassination file and the cleansing of the border strip, is being presented in #Israel as a victory and defeat for Hezbollah.
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Despite the severe damage to the #Hezbollah militia's command ladder, the militia is still capable of launching between 100 and 200 rockets daily, most of them 107 caliber, with some medium-range rockets, some of which have reached Tel Aviv in the past few days. The militia has also returned to relying more on suicide drones of the Shahed 101 and Sayyad 107 types, which are small in size and have a small, highly explosive warhead. Militia fighters are still stationed in advanced positions, some of which are only 3 km from the border with #Israel, equipped with anti-tank shells, some of which have a range of 8 km. Meanwhile, Unit 4400 of the militia, which is responsible for supplying weapons across the Syrian border, continues its work despite the assassination of 3 of its leaders. At the present time, the militia is focusing on preventing the #IDF from advancing on the ground as an achievement for the Lebanese interior and to present it as a victory for them and an Israeli defeat.
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Eva J. Koulouriotis | إيفا كولوريوتي

@evacool_

Nov 2

#Thread #Iran #IRGC #Hezbollah #Lebanon #Israel #IDF #Syria #Hamas #Gaza #USA #IDF #Yemen #Iraq #France
In light of the increasing threats from Iranian officials, headed by #Khamenei, regarding the response to the recent Israeli attack in Iran, a reading from the Iranian perspective on the possibilities of this response, its timing, and the bank of expected targets.
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In a series of tweets published by the account of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali #Khamenei on the X platform, it was clearly indicated that the Iranian response to Israel is coming and will be strong, and the threat was also directed at the American side. In an eye-catching post, Khamenei recalled the attack by Khomeini’s followers on the American embassy in #Tehran in November 1979, which may carry implicit messages directed towards America that must be taken into consideration.
Before considering the Iranian response inevitable, we must first answer the logical question at the current stage, which is: Is Iran obligated to respond to the Israeli attack on the 26th of last month, which came in response to the Iranian missile attack on #Israel on the 1st of October?
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The short answer is No. #Iran is not obligated to respond to Israel, as Iranian sources tried to confirm before the Israeli attack, where it was indicated that Tehran would not respond if the Israeli strike was limited. The term ‘limited strike’ was understood at the time to mean that it did not target Iran’s nuclear program or oil and gas fields. In practice, the Israeli strike was limited, as #Tehran showed in its media about the success of its air defenses and the failure of the Israeli attack. Therefore, if the attack failed and the extent of the damage was limited, Tehran is not obligated to respond.
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Eva J. Koulouriotis | إيفا كولوريوتي

@evacool_

Oct 29

#Thread #Hezbollah #Lebanon #Israel #IDF #Syria #Hamas #Gaza #USA #Iran #IRGC #IDF #Yemen #Iraq #France
While American officials are intensifying their visits to the Middle East in the hope of making a breakthrough in the diplomatic deadlock, Israeli media outlets have been circulating questions over the past two days about the Israeli government’s conditions for ending the military operation in Lebanon. An analytical reading of this unofficial offer and its chances of success.
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On the ground, it can be said that the #IDF began a new advance in southern #Lebanon at dawn today by penetrating towards the strategic town of Al-Khiyam, which is located about 6 km from the Israeli border. This movement comes after the IDF took complete control of all the Lebanese border villages, with the increase in air strikes in the governorates of Bekaa, Hermel, Nabatieh and the city of Tyre. The border area between #Syria and Lebanon also witnessed broader strikes, some of which targeted crossings and some of which targeted military points of the #Hezbollah militia inside Syrian territory in the southern #Homs countryside and Qalamoun.
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While the military operation in #Lebanon is still continuing at a high pace, statements from Israeli military officials have begun to emerge talking about the near end of this operation with the achievement of a large part of its objectives. In contrast, Israeli media outlets have published a set of conditions demanded by the Israeli government to end the military operation in Lebanon. These conditions are based on Resolution 1701 with new additions.
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Eva J. Koulouriotis | إيفا كولوريوتي

@evacool_

Oct 26

#Thread #Syria #Hamas #Gaza #Israel #Hezbollah #USA #Iran #IRGC #IDF #Lebanon #Yemen #Iraq #France
Israel responded to Iran's missile attack on October 1, but there is still a lack of information from both sides about the results of this attack. A reading of the circumstances of this response and what comes after it.
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What we know so far is this: At around 2:00 a.m. today, the #IDF attacked radars and air defense batteries in Syrian territory, then targeted Iranian radars and air defenses in the provinces of Khuzestan, Ilam, and Tehran as a first wave of response. About an hour later, the second and third waves began, which, according to the Israeli side, targeted missile bases, missile fuel manufacturing facilities, and drone manufacturing plants, totalling 20 sites inside Iranian territory.
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It is important to note that most of the sensitive military sites in #Iran are located outside the cities, which makes documenting the damage caused by the Israeli attack by unofficial Iranian sources very complicated. However, so far, the Iranian Ministry of Defense has acknowledged the killing of four soldiers working within the air defense systems. It is also customary for the Iranian authorities to hide any information that shows the weakness of their military and security systems, which is what we witnessed during the intelligence attacks carried out by the Israeli Mossad against Iran’s nuclear program.
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Eva J. Koulouriotis | إيفا كولوريوتي

@evacool_

Oct 25

#Thread #Syria #Hamas #Gaza #Israel #Hezbollah #USA #Iran #IRGC #IDF #Lebanon #Yemen #Iraq #France
As the Israeli military operation in Gaza and Lebanon continues, an update on the latest political and military developments in these two arenas in particular.
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#Gaza file
Militarily: the military operation in the Jabalia area and other areas in the northern Gaza Strip has been ongoing for more than a week, and despite the severe blows that Hamas has received, still military operations based on the strategy of "hit and run" against the Israeli forces, whether those moving in northern Gaza or those stationary in the Netzarim and Philadelphi axes.
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Here it is necessary to emphasize that no matter how long the Israeli military operation continues in the #Gaza Strip, its forces will not stop being exposed to attacks in light of the continued influence of Hamas within the society in Gaza, which will soon push the Israeli government to be convinced of the necessity to move more towards a deal that includes among its terms the rebuilding of a security and political system for the Strip, which is what has already begun to be discussed in #Jerusalem, in regional countries, and in #Washington.
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