Thread by @AuroraIntel

Thread🧵 - East of #Homs, #Syria;

On the 8th October 2021 reports began to circulate of Air Defense active over Homs Governorate, #Syria. Shortly after the initial reports, sources and social media begin to report that the area of T4 Airbase near Tiyas was reportedly struck.

The next day, initial investigation had begun, and initial low resolution imagery courtesy of @sentinel_hub confirmed that the runway at T4 airbase had been struck. This wasn’t exactly new, as highlighted previously, the runway at T4 has been targeted multiple times…

https://twitter.com/auroraintel/status/1446812155194527747

In the past (included are two examples of previous strikes). The odd thing about this one was it was conducted during Shabbat on a Friday evening, this is rare, and if I remember correctly it’s the fast Friday night strike since 2018, which oddly…

https://twitter.com/auroraintel/status/1218593447776485377?s=21

https://twitter.com/auroraintel/status/1302550635255074822

enough was also a strike on T4. Targeting of runways is not exclusive to T4 and the reported #IDF strikes have also used this tactic to disable runways at Al-Qusayr airbase and Damascus Intl. Airport leading to the #IRGC section in the southern area of the airport.

Further investigation was conducted, piecing together the fully extent of the reported airstrike, for a Friday there had to be more, right? To the north, imagery via @planet shows at least 4 impacts to a SAA Storage Facility with notable SA-2 Air Defense positions. Heavy..

markings from the impact suggests some form of accelerant in the vicinity, fuel and/or air defense missiles targeted, also appears that two structures were hit. To the West of T4, another position. Historical imagery shows a combination of storage and a radar position here.

Then finally (from what I can see) to the south, a Fan Song-E Radar position belonging to a SA-2 battery, the impact appears to align with the Fan Song-E position in previous imagery. In total at least 7 impacts if single missiles were used. Russian media was quoted saying only 4

As noted by @obretix, there are still some questions around the purpose of the Runway targeting, T4 runway is long and has the capability of running, even with the runway damage, however, worth noting this could have been going to Palmyra

https://twitter.com/obretix/status/1449391944275202048

Anyway, this leads us into the 13th October 2021, the strike at Palmyra, this isn’t the first time a reported airstrike by the #IDF has been conducted, to the north a storage location was extensively struck previously.

https://twitter.com/AuroraIntel/status/1254817345069088776

The larger reported #IDF airstrikes in the past have shown a pattern of SEAD and follow up strike(s). It appears we have seen this pattern again, the targeting of at least one radar (potentially more) aligns with reports following Palmyra that no longer range AD was fired.

At least three targets were struck the evening of 13th south of Palmyra. Imagery Courtesy of @capellaspace allows us to “see through the clouds” (stupid clouds), location “3” as geolocated by @Krummapper shows a warehouse struck.

Location “1” as geolocated by @obretix shows another two buildings targeted just south of Palmyra.

And finally (from what I can find) location “2”. (Don’t judge my ordering, I am just trying to stay consistent with my map locations above :D).

Only one of these locations is reportedly affiliated to any military usage - location “3” called a “research facility”

Posts on social media however note this location as a NDF checkpoint. At least 4 SAA soldiers were reportedly killed in this reported airstrike, it is not clear at which location this was.

In January 2021, a reported extensive IDF airstrike targeting multiple #IRGC affiliated assets in Deir Ez Zor was conducted. Post this airstrike, reports suggested that affiliated militants had begun to move to the desert near Palmyra and subsequently reports have emerged…

https://twitter.com/AuroraIntel/status/1349203573431820296

The presence of these affiliated groups have reportedly begun to dig tunnels in and around Palmyra. Of course, depending on your views you may or may not believe these reports. Included is a link to a news article around this topic (first on google) al-monitor.com/originals/2021…

So what can we take from this mash up of a thread?

- The two strikes appear to be linked, one to disable/limit the Air Defense capabilities.
- IDF rarely strike on a Friday, usually means it’s something important from their point of view.
- More than 4 impacts on the 8th.

- I still don’t bother to spell check and grammar check as otherwise I’ll be here for hours trying to perfect it all.