Given the mass suffering and economic woes inflicted on Ethiopia’s population, as well as the growing risk of regional conflagration, a cessation of hostilities and negotiations are more essential than ever.
Through a combination of pressure, diplomacy, and forward planning, outside actors should work together to move the parties toward the path of peace.
Here is how 👇
🔹 The European Union and Ethiopia’s neighbours should throw their collective weight behind the diplomatic initiative led by former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo.
🔹 Outside actors should work with the @_AfricanUnion envoy in pressing leaders on all sides of the conflict in the direction of de-escalation, ceasefire and dialogue.
🔹 #Tigray leaders should freeze their offensive as Addis Ababa unblocks aid and services to the region.
For a concise overview of Ethiopia’s devastating civil war and more recommendations on what should be done to alleviate tensions, read our full briefing👇 crisisgroup.org/africa/horn-af…
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#Somalia is in a dangerous political impasse as political actors have yet to reach a breakthrough in talks about the 2021 elections.
The longer the situation persists, the greater the risk of violence, says Crisis Group's @OmarSMahmood
THREAD 1/10 ⇊
The parliamentary and presidential elections, due by February 8, have been postponed amidst a deep lack of trust between Somalia’s political elites. 2/10
This mistrust is a by-product of the #Farmajo administration’s attempts to centralise power, which has spurred a backlash in a country that has long had center-periphery tensions. 3/10
The crisis risks evolving into a protracted conflict as:
➢ Eritrean forces are yet to fully withdraw from the region
➢ Tigrayan leaders consolidate their position in rural areas
➢ President @AbiyAhmedAli remains determined to keep #Tigray’s ousted leadership away from power
It is vital that both Tigrayan and government forces consider halting the fighting to facilitate access to humanitarian aid.
This practical first step would help reduce civilian suffering and could even pave the way for a return to dialogue.
2020 has been a devastating year. We could all do with some good news.
Here are some of @CrisisGroup’s 10 reasons for hope in 2021.
1. Vaccines. Several vaccines developed in record time have already been approved against #COVID19.
Their roll-out gives good reasons to believe 2021 will see a dramatic turnaround of the pandemic.
2. Return to diplomacy. After 4 years of the Trump era’s erosion of multilateralism and tensions among the P5, the Biden administration could help restore U.S. engagement in multilateral conflict resolution efforts and at the Security Council
⇨ To war-affected populations and IDPs,
⇨ Social collapse in fragile states,
⇨ Constraints on international mediation & peacekeeping,
⇨ Use as a pretext to crush dissent, delay elections.
(2/11)
The UN call for a #GlobalCeasefire has resonated more widely than expected.
In Colombia, the Philippines and Cameroon armed groups committed to the ceasefire, not only because they are worried about COVID-19, but also for tactical reasons.
(3/11)