Thread by @CrisisGroup

How will #COVID19 impact states in conflict?

Here are some thoughts from @CrisisGroup s president @Rob_Malley and UN Director @RichardGowan1.

Bottom line: the tail of this crisis will be with us for a long time.

Thread (1/11)

.@RichardGowan1 sees four main risks:

⇨ To war-affected populations and IDPs,
⇨ Social collapse in fragile states,
⇨ Constraints on international mediation & peacekeeping,
⇨ Use as a pretext to crush dissent, delay elections.
(2/11)

The UN call for a #GlobalCeasefire has resonated more widely than expected.

In Colombia, the Philippines and Cameroon armed groups committed to the ceasefire, not only because they are worried about COVID-19, but also for tactical reasons.
(3/11)

Some ceasefire endorsements are dubious. Some armed groups have acknowledged it but keep fighting.

Overall, the #GlobalCeasefire has had a positive effect. As the disease spreads, more groups will see some advantages to signing on.
(4/11)
crisisgroup.org/global/global-…

The WHO did mishandle its relations with China says @RichardGowan1. On the other hand, there are actors, including Pres. Trump, who want to exploit the problem. This politicisation of WHO is very unfortunate, even though a review is warranted.
(5/11)

The US-China dynamic has been the most impacted by the pandemic, says @Rob_Malley. Both countries will suffer damage to their credibility and prestige. China hopes to exercise its soft power at a time the U.S. is failing to project its model and show leadership.
(6/11)

What’s the conflict landscape going to look like after the pandemic?

ISIS is saying to its disciples that now is the time to intensify efforts. It’s not because ISIS is more powerful but rather because its enemies are weaker.
(7/11)

crisisgroup.org/global/contend…

In #Iraq, U.S.-Iran tensions are complicating the fight against ISIS.

@CrisisGroup recommends a humanitarian pause. The U.S. can provide sanctions relief and Iran can release detained dual nationals.
(8/11)

crisisgroup.org/middle-east-no…

Finally, says @Rob_Malley, the pandemic has exposed two competing narratives:

The first: A global health crisis must be tackled globally with greater cooperation and pooling of resources.

The second: Porous borders and globalization are the threat.
(9/11)

The first narrative has intellectual heft and logic on its side, but its rival has political winds at its sails.

The jury is still out on which of the two narratives will come out stronger once the dust settles.
(10/11)

The tail of this crisis will be with us for a long time, because:

⇨ It is hitting all countries simultaneously,
⇨ It is a health, economic, social and political crisis,
⇨ The current international order was already being questioned.
crisisgroup.org/global/sb4-cov…
(11/11)