Ahead of the anniversary of 9/11, thousands of readers have downloaded our 2016 report “Exploiting Disorder: al-Qaeda and the Islamic State”.

Building on the work of @CrisisGroup experts, this study still speaks to the evolving threat of jihadism today.🧵
crisisgroup.org/global/exploit…
Local branches of the Islamic State, and al-Qaeda are protagonists in some of today’s deadliest crises.

They often provoke reactions that deepen the conditions they feed off - creating new instability and grievances that again plays into their hands.
In the report, @CrisisGroup looks at several ways to counter the jihadist threat without making things worse.

The bottom line: react in proportion to specific situations, not through blind, sweeping campaigns.👇
1️⃣ Disaggregate not conflate:

Distinguish between movements. Governments should distinguish between violent and other movements with an eye to ending violence, not lump them all together looking for a fight.
2️⃣ Use force judiciously:

Although armed action usually must be part of the response, governments have been too quick to go to war.

A wider political strategy must include reconciliation.
3️⃣ Respect rules:

Too often military actions against militants help them recruit or exposes communities to impossible choices between harsh jihadist rule and indiscriminate operations against them.

Defending the rule of law must be a priority.
4️⃣ Curb targeted killings:

Drone strikes can, in places, hinder groups’ operations and ability to hit Western interests.

But they often kill civilians too, feeding resentment against local governments and the West.
5️⃣ Open lines of communication:

Notwithstanding the difficulties, governments should be more willing to talk, even with radicals.
6⃣ Invest in conflict prevention:

Preventing crises will do more to contain violent extremists than countering violent extremism will do to prevent crises.
Interested to read more about the evolving threat of extremist groups, the threat and policy dilemmas they pose, and ideas on how to respond?

Read all of our work on Jihad in Modern Conflict here 👇
crisisgroup.org/jihad-modern-c…
You can also download this report in Arabic and French!
crisisgroup.org/global/exploit…

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More from @CrisisGroup

11 Sep
Ahead of today's anniversary of 9/11, thousands of readers have downloaded our 2016 report “Exploiting Disorder: al-Qaeda and the Islamic State”.

Building on the work of ICG's experts, this study still speaks to the evolving threat of jihadism today.🧵
crisisgroup.org/global/exploit…
Local branches of the Islamic State, and al-Qaeda are protagonists in some of today’s deadliest crises.

They often provoke reactions that deepen the conditions they feed off - creating new instability and grievances that again plays into their hands.
In the report, @CrisisGroup looks at several ways to counter the jihadist threat without making things worse.

The bottom line: react in proportion to specific situations, not through blind, sweeping campaigns.👇
Read 11 tweets
2 Apr
#Somalia is in a dangerous political impasse as political actors have yet to reach a breakthrough in talks about the 2021 elections.

The longer the situation persists, the greater the risk of violence, says Crisis Group's @OmarSMahmood

THREAD 1/10 ⇊
The parliamentary and presidential elections, due by February 8, have been postponed amidst a deep lack of trust between Somalia’s political elites. 2/10
This mistrust is a by-product of the #Farmajo administration’s attempts to centralise power, which has spurred a backlash in a country that has long had center-periphery tensions. 3/10
Read 10 tweets
2 Apr
#Ethiopia’s government claims that the war against the TPLF ended last November.

But fighting continues in #Tigray - and civilians bear the brunt of a brutal conflict marked by #atrocities and displacement.

New briefing ⇊
bit.ly/AfricaB171
The crisis risks evolving into a protracted conflict as:
➢ Eritrean forces are yet to fully withdraw from the region
➢ Tigrayan leaders consolidate their position in rural areas
➢ President @AbiyAhmedAli remains determined to keep #Tigray’s ousted leadership away from power
It is vital that both Tigrayan and government forces consider halting the fighting to facilitate access to humanitarian aid.

This practical first step would help reduce civilian suffering and could even pave the way for a return to dialogue.
Read 5 tweets
8 Jan
2020 has been a devastating year. We could all do with some good news.

Here are some of @CrisisGroup’s 10 reasons for hope in 2021.
1. Vaccines. Several vaccines developed in record time have already been approved against #COVID19.

Their roll-out gives good reasons to believe 2021 will see a dramatic turnaround of the pandemic.
2. Return to diplomacy. After 4 years of the Trump era’s erosion of multilateralism and tensions among the P5, the Biden administration could help restore U.S. engagement in multilateral conflict resolution efforts and at the Security Council

bit.ly/3p3gxmH
Read 11 tweets
10 Apr 20
How will #COVID19 impact states in conflict?

Here are some thoughts from @CrisisGroup s president @Rob_Malley and UN Director @RichardGowan1.

Bottom line: the tail of this crisis will be with us for a long time.

Thread (1/11)
.@RichardGowan1 sees four main risks:

⇨ To war-affected populations and IDPs,
⇨ Social collapse in fragile states,
⇨ Constraints on international mediation & peacekeeping,
⇨ Use as a pretext to crush dissent, delay elections.
(2/11)
The UN call for a #GlobalCeasefire has resonated more widely than expected.

In Colombia, the Philippines and Cameroon armed groups committed to the ceasefire, not only because they are worried about COVID-19, but also for tactical reasons.
(3/11)
Read 11 tweets
30 Jan 20
LIVE NOW | @CrisisGroup’s #WatchList2020 Part 2
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🔸 Panel discussion on how the EU can act better for peace, with @FedericaMog and @Rob_Malley, moderated by @NicolePirozzi twitter.com/i/broadcasts/1…
@FedericaMog @Rob_Malley @NicolePirozzi For @FedericaMog, the biggest challenges to the EU in #WatchList2020 will be Iran-US escalation, and how this is giving new space for #ISIS; and the multiple layers of conflict in 🇱🇾#Libya.
@FedericaMog @Rob_Malley @NicolePirozzi Recent #US actions expose weaknesses & open opportunities for EU, says @Rob_Malley.

⇨Diplomatically, can EU play a role between US & Iran?
⇨Financially, can EU limit exposure to the reach of US sanctions?
⇨Militarily, eg after a US exit from Iraq, can EU reduce vulnerability?
Read 8 tweets

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