Local branches of the Islamic State, and al-Qaeda are protagonists in some of today’s deadliest crises.
They often provoke reactions that deepen the conditions they feed off - creating new instability and grievances that again plays into their hands.
In the report, @CrisisGroup looks at several ways to counter the jihadist threat without making things worse.
The bottom line: react in proportion to specific situations, not through blind, sweeping campaigns.👇
1️⃣ Disaggregate not conflate:
Distinguish between movements. Governments should distinguish between violent and other movements with an eye to ending violence, not lump them all together looking for a fight.
2️⃣ Use force judiciously:
Although armed action usually must be part of the response, governments have been too quick to go to war.
A wider political strategy must include reconciliation.
3️⃣ Respect rules:
Too often military actions against militants help them recruit or exposes communities to impossible choices between harsh jihadist rule and indiscriminate operations against them.
Defending the rule of law must be a priority.
4️⃣ Curb targeted killings:
Drone strikes can, in places, hinder groups’ operations and ability to hit Western interests.
But they often kill civilians too, feeding resentment against local governments and the West.
5️⃣ Open lines of communication:
Notwithstanding the difficulties, governments should be more willing to talk, even with radicals.
6⃣ Invest in conflict prevention:
Preventing crises will do more to contain violent extremists than countering violent extremism will do to prevent crises.
Interested to read more about the evolving threat of extremist groups, the threat and policy dilemmas they pose, and ideas on how to respond?
#Somalia is in a dangerous political impasse as political actors have yet to reach a breakthrough in talks about the 2021 elections.
The longer the situation persists, the greater the risk of violence, says Crisis Group's @OmarSMahmood
THREAD 1/10 ⇊
The parliamentary and presidential elections, due by February 8, have been postponed amidst a deep lack of trust between Somalia’s political elites. 2/10
This mistrust is a by-product of the #Farmajo administration’s attempts to centralise power, which has spurred a backlash in a country that has long had center-periphery tensions. 3/10
The crisis risks evolving into a protracted conflict as:
➢ Eritrean forces are yet to fully withdraw from the region
➢ Tigrayan leaders consolidate their position in rural areas
➢ President @AbiyAhmedAli remains determined to keep #Tigray’s ousted leadership away from power
It is vital that both Tigrayan and government forces consider halting the fighting to facilitate access to humanitarian aid.
This practical first step would help reduce civilian suffering and could even pave the way for a return to dialogue.
2020 has been a devastating year. We could all do with some good news.
Here are some of @CrisisGroup’s 10 reasons for hope in 2021.
1. Vaccines. Several vaccines developed in record time have already been approved against #COVID19.
Their roll-out gives good reasons to believe 2021 will see a dramatic turnaround of the pandemic.
2. Return to diplomacy. After 4 years of the Trump era’s erosion of multilateralism and tensions among the P5, the Biden administration could help restore U.S. engagement in multilateral conflict resolution efforts and at the Security Council
⇨ To war-affected populations and IDPs,
⇨ Social collapse in fragile states,
⇨ Constraints on international mediation & peacekeeping,
⇨ Use as a pretext to crush dissent, delay elections.
(2/11)
The UN call for a #GlobalCeasefire has resonated more widely than expected.
In Colombia, the Philippines and Cameroon armed groups committed to the ceasefire, not only because they are worried about COVID-19, but also for tactical reasons.
(3/11)
⇨Diplomatically, can EU play a role between US & Iran?
⇨Financially, can EU limit exposure to the reach of US sanctions?
⇨Militarily, eg after a US exit from Iraq, can EU reduce vulnerability?