Thread by @CrisisGroup

2020 has been a devastating year. We could all do with some good news.

Here are some of @CrisisGroup’s 10 reasons for hope in 2021.

1. Vaccines. Several vaccines developed in record time have already been approved against #COVID19.

Their roll-out gives good reasons to believe 2021 will see a dramatic turnaround of the pandemic.

2. Return to diplomacy. After 4 years of the Trump era’s erosion of multilateralism and tensions among the P5, the Biden administration could help restore U.S. engagement in multilateral conflict resolution efforts and at the Security Council

bit.ly/3p3gxmH

3. Climate. The U.S. is likely to rejoin the Paris Agreement and lead a renewed charge to fight climate change and its destructive consequences.

See @CrisisGroup’s research on the complex relationship between conflict and climate ☟
crisisgroup.org/climate

4. In Afghanistan, ongoing peace talks could lead to meaningful progress.

There are many obstacles on the road ahead, but the current negotiations between the Afghan government and the Taliban represent the country’s best shot at peace in a generation.

bit.ly/3liyagh

5. The African Continental Free Trade Area.

Trading began in the new continent-wide single market on 1 January 2021 and offers important long term prospects for reducing conflict in Africa.

6. A decline in gang violence in El Salvador.

The murder rate has fallen spectacularly, giving citizens hope that 2021 heralds an end to the long-running cycle of violence. The lull is thought to be the result of secret talks between gang leaders and populist president Bukele.

7. Diplomacy U.S.-Iran.

2020 brought the U.S.-Iran tensions close to boiling point but with a new administration in Washington, the two countries are in a position to restore compliance with the nuclear deal and seek to de-escalate regional tensions.

bit.ly/372jMoc

8. A ceasefire in Libya.

An alignment of positive factors - a ceasefire, less belligerent regional actors, war fatigue - gives hope – albeit fragile – that the cycle of violence that began in 2011 might come to a close.

9. A major EU budget deal.

Despite the economic downturn brought by the pandemic, the EU closed 2 years of negotiations culminating in a 1.8 trillion budget confirming its commitments for global development, humanitarian relief, peacebuilding, and conflict prevention.

10. Our colleague Michael Kovrig, who is starting his third year in unjustified arbitrary detention in China, has received overwhelming support, including at the UN Security Council.

Our most pressing wish for 2021 is his release.