#Somalia is in a dangerous political impasse as political actors have yet to reach a breakthrough in talks about the 2021 elections.

The longer the situation persists, the greater the risk of violence, says Crisis Group's @OmarSMahmood

THREAD 1/10 ⇊
The parliamentary and presidential elections, due by February 8, have been postponed amidst a deep lack of trust between Somalia’s political elites. 2/10
This mistrust is a by-product of the #Farmajo administration’s attempts to centralise power, which has spurred a backlash in a country that has long had center-periphery tensions. 3/10
This has degenerated to the point where political actors have no faith in local security forces which are not under their direct control, leading to disputes over even the logistics and venue of face-to-face meetings. 4/10
This cycle of political tensions has led to an unprecedented situation whereby government mandates reached their constitutional limits without a consensus path forward. 5/10
To cut through the impasse and distrust, @CrisisGroup has argued that external third-party mediation is required. 6/10

bit.ly/3cNdufk
International actors are currently trying to nudge the parties towards compromise in Mogadishu, but have been hesitant to take on a more direct role.

Nonetheless, Somalia’s partners should be prepared to use all the pressure points at their disposal to ensure compliance.
External monitoring is an unfortunate necessity, given the distrust between competing actors and lack of institutional mechanisms.

Additional breakdowns are likely as new issues arise, and risk stalling the electoral cycle even further.
Somalia is very much at an inflection point. Major stakeholders are still in Mogadishu to discuss the elections. If no agreement is reached in the coming days, there will be a heightened risk of political violence.
To avoid adding to the chaos that has long characterised the country, it is in everyone’s interests to figure out a path forward on elections.

Playing for time can only play into the hands of groups like Al-Shabaab looking to exploit the instability, warns @OmarSMahmood

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More from @CrisisGroup

2 Apr
#Ethiopia’s government claims that the war against the TPLF ended last November.

But fighting continues in #Tigray - and civilians bear the brunt of a brutal conflict marked by #atrocities and displacement.

New briefing ⇊
bit.ly/AfricaB171
The crisis risks evolving into a protracted conflict as:
➢ Eritrean forces are yet to fully withdraw from the region
➢ Tigrayan leaders consolidate their position in rural areas
➢ President @AbiyAhmedAli remains determined to keep #Tigray’s ousted leadership away from power
It is vital that both Tigrayan and government forces consider halting the fighting to facilitate access to humanitarian aid.

This practical first step would help reduce civilian suffering and could even pave the way for a return to dialogue.
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8 Jan
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Here are some of @CrisisGroup’s 10 reasons for hope in 2021.
1. Vaccines. Several vaccines developed in record time have already been approved against #COVID19.

Their roll-out gives good reasons to believe 2021 will see a dramatic turnaround of the pandemic.
2. Return to diplomacy. After 4 years of the Trump era’s erosion of multilateralism and tensions among the P5, the Biden administration could help restore U.S. engagement in multilateral conflict resolution efforts and at the Security Council

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How will #COVID19 impact states in conflict?

Here are some thoughts from @CrisisGroup s president @Rob_Malley and UN Director @RichardGowan1.

Bottom line: the tail of this crisis will be with us for a long time.

Thread (1/11)
.@RichardGowan1 sees four main risks:

⇨ To war-affected populations and IDPs,
⇨ Social collapse in fragile states,
⇨ Constraints on international mediation & peacekeeping,
⇨ Use as a pretext to crush dissent, delay elections.
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LIVE NOW | @CrisisGroup’s #WatchList2020 Part 2
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🔸 Panel discussion on how the EU can act better for peace, with @FedericaMog and @Rob_Malley, moderated by @NicolePirozzi twitter.com/i/broadcasts/1…
@FedericaMog @Rob_Malley @NicolePirozzi For @FedericaMog, the biggest challenges to the EU in #WatchList2020 will be Iran-US escalation, and how this is giving new space for #ISIS; and the multiple layers of conflict in 🇱🇾#Libya.
@FedericaMog @Rob_Malley @NicolePirozzi Recent #US actions expose weaknesses & open opportunities for EU, says @Rob_Malley.

⇨Diplomatically, can EU play a role between US & Iran?
⇨Financially, can EU limit exposure to the reach of US sanctions?
⇨Militarily, eg after a US exit from Iraq, can EU reduce vulnerability?
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29 Jan 20
The Trump administration's policies, which affect Europe without taking into account its views, sharpen the case for a more sovereign European foreign policy.

Our #WatchList2020 lists 10 countries where swift action by the #EU can help build peace. /1
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The EU and member states should lend support to election preparation and encourage the government to devote energy to the crisis in the countryside. /2
Tensions are mounting between the DRC’s neighbouring countries, Burundi, Uganda and Rwanda, which could compound the country’s security challenges.

The EU should encourage President Tshisekedi to reinvigorate diplomatic efforts. /3

For more, see bit.ly/Africab150
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@CrisisGroup and its experts see many risks for the region unless Turkey quickly pulls back from a broader offensive.
2/ The US on 6 October announced the withdrawal of troops & President Trump said he would not stand in the way of a Turkish offensive.

But it’s one thing for the US to withdraw – doing it precipitously is another.

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➞ 11 civilians killed in Syria & Turkish border towns
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bbc.com/news/world-mid…
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