The crisis risks evolving into a protracted conflict as:
➢ Eritrean forces are yet to fully withdraw from the region
➢ Tigrayan leaders consolidate their position in rural areas
➢ President @AbiyAhmedAli remains determined to keep #Tigray’s ousted leadership away from power
It is vital that both Tigrayan and government forces consider halting the fighting to facilitate access to humanitarian aid.
This practical first step would help reduce civilian suffering and could even pave the way for a return to dialogue.
Outside actors must maintain pressure for talks and urge Addis Ababa to let more aid into the war zone and to reassess its calculations regarding the war.
#Somalia is in a dangerous political impasse as political actors have yet to reach a breakthrough in talks about the 2021 elections.
The longer the situation persists, the greater the risk of violence, says Crisis Group's @OmarSMahmood
THREAD 1/10 ⇊
The parliamentary and presidential elections, due by February 8, have been postponed amidst a deep lack of trust between Somalia’s political elites. 2/10
This mistrust is a by-product of the #Farmajo administration’s attempts to centralise power, which has spurred a backlash in a country that has long had center-periphery tensions. 3/10
2020 has been a devastating year. We could all do with some good news.
Here are some of @CrisisGroup’s 10 reasons for hope in 2021.
1. Vaccines. Several vaccines developed in record time have already been approved against #COVID19.
Their roll-out gives good reasons to believe 2021 will see a dramatic turnaround of the pandemic.
2. Return to diplomacy. After 4 years of the Trump era’s erosion of multilateralism and tensions among the P5, the Biden administration could help restore U.S. engagement in multilateral conflict resolution efforts and at the Security Council
⇨ To war-affected populations and IDPs,
⇨ Social collapse in fragile states,
⇨ Constraints on international mediation & peacekeeping,
⇨ Use as a pretext to crush dissent, delay elections.
(2/11)
The UN call for a #GlobalCeasefire has resonated more widely than expected.
In Colombia, the Philippines and Cameroon armed groups committed to the ceasefire, not only because they are worried about COVID-19, but also for tactical reasons.
(3/11)
⇨Diplomatically, can EU play a role between US & Iran?
⇨Financially, can EU limit exposure to the reach of US sanctions?
⇨Militarily, eg after a US exit from Iraq, can EU reduce vulnerability?
The Trump administration's policies, which affect Europe without taking into account its views, sharpen the case for a more sovereign European foreign policy.
As #Burkina Faso’s rural conflict rages, creating an urgent humanitarian crisis, the country is also beset by urban unrest.
The EU and member states should lend support to election preparation and encourage the government to devote energy to the crisis in the countryside. /2
Tensions are mounting between the DRC’s neighbouring countries, Burundi, Uganda and Rwanda, which could compound the country’s security challenges.
The EU should encourage President Tshisekedi to reinvigorate diplomatic efforts. /3