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Nathaniel Rakich Profile picture
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29 Oct, 3 tweets, 2 min read
Last night, Arizona's independent redistricting commission advanced this finalist congressional map, which will now go to public comment: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
This map creates 5 🔴 seats, 2 🔵 seats, and 2 🟣 seats. The median seat, David Schweikert's #AZ01, is pretty close to the statewide partisan lean, so Dems should be able to win 5/9 if they win statewide. But in a good GOP year, they could win 7/9. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
The map is not kind to Dem incumbents, though. Tom O'Halleran is pretty well screwed, as his #AZ02 becomes R+15. Greg Stanton's #AZ04 would also become a tossup. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…

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Nathaniel Rakich Profile picture
29 Oct
Late last night, the Illinois legislature passed a 4th iteration of their new congressional map. Analyzed here: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
As with previous versions, it is heavily biased toward Democrats. There are 13 🔵 seats, 3 🔴 seats, and 1 🟣 seats. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
The map wreaks havoc with a lot of incumbents, especially Republicans. For instance, Mike Bost and Mary Miller are double-bunked in #IL12. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
Read 6 tweets
Nathaniel Rakich Profile picture
28 Oct
The latest (final?) proposed congressional map in Illinois is up and analyzed on the @FiveThirtyEight redistricting tracker: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
@FiveThirtyEight It's very similar to the previous proposal: 13 🔵 seats, 3 🔴 seats, and just 1 🟣 seat. It has an efficiency gap of D+13. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
@FiveThirtyEight The map makes #IL13, currently held by GOPer Rodney Davis, light blue. Davis could choose to run in neighboring #IL15 but that might set up an incumbent-vs-incumbent primary (either Davis-LaHood or LaHood-Kinzinger in #IL16). projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
Read 4 tweets
Nathaniel Rakich Profile picture
25 Oct
Texas has become the 5th state to complete congressional redistricting. Here's its new map! projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
The new Texas map creates 24 🔴, 13 🔵, and 1 🟣 seat. It has an efficiency gap of R+15 and a median-seat bias of R+12, signs of a pro-Republican gerrymander. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
Hispanic-rights groups have filed two lawsuits over the new Texas map, though, so this may not be over yet. The map did not create any new minority-opportunity districts. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
Read 5 tweets
Nathaniel Rakich Profile picture
25 Oct
Illinois Democrats' new proposed congressional map is up and analyzed on the @FiveThirtyEight redistricting tracker: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
@FiveThirtyEight I'd call it an even more aggressive gerrymander than their first proposed map. While it has a similar D+13 efficiency gap, it creates 13 🔵 seats, 3 🔴 seats, and only 1 🟣 seat (#IL17). projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
@FiveThirtyEight The map puts GOP Rep. Rodney Davis in a Dem-leaning seat & sets up a likely GOP incumbent-vs-GOP incumbent primary. It also creates a new majority-Hispanic #IL03 at the expense of Marie Newman, who's thrown in with Sean Casten. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
Read 5 tweets
Nathaniel Rakich Profile picture
27 Sep
Texas Republicans' proposed congressional map is up and analyzed on the @FiveThirtyEight redistricting tracker: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
@FiveThirtyEight The map shores up #TX07, #TX28, #TX32, and #TX34 for Dems and adds a new solid-blue #TX37 in Austin. In exchange, #TX02, #TX03, #TX06, #TX10, #TX21, #TX22, #TX23, #TX24, and #TX31 are made safer for their Republican incumbents.
Dem Rep. Vicente Gonzalez's #TX15 also becomes a bit redder, but still a tossup, under this map. I wonder if he moves over to the safe blue #TX34, whence Rep. Filemon Vela is retiring. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
Read 4 tweets
Nathaniel Rakich Profile picture
22 Sep
The Congressional Baseball Game rosters are out, and Marjorie Taylor Greene is on the Republican team. congressionalbaseball.org/teams/
The GOP roster actually has a lot of turnover this year. Shaking things up in an attempt to win their first CBG since 2016.
Meanwhile, a rare senator—Jon Ossoff—joins the Democratic team, along with Kai Kahele and Frank Mrvan. The only Dem "retiring" this year is Jimmy Gomez.
Read 6 tweets

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