Illinois Democrats' new proposed congressional map is up and analyzed on the @FiveThirtyEight redistricting tracker: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
@FiveThirtyEight I'd call it an even more aggressive gerrymander than their first proposed map. While it has a similar D+13 efficiency gap, it creates 13 🔵 seats, 3 🔴 seats, and only 1 🟣 seat (#IL17). projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
@FiveThirtyEight The map puts GOP Rep. Rodney Davis in a Dem-leaning seat & sets up a likely GOP incumbent-vs-GOP incumbent primary. It also creates a new majority-Hispanic #IL03 at the expense of Marie Newman, who's thrown in with Sean Casten. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
Clarification to the above tweet: The proposed IL map doesn't literally put Davis in a Dem-leaning seat, it just makes his current district Dem-leaning. Sloppy language on my part.
We still have Davis listed as the incumbent in the new #IL13 based on the fact that 63% of his current constituents live there, but if Davis announces plans to run in #IL15 instead, we'll update accordingly.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Nathaniel Rakich

Nathaniel Rakich Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @baseballot

25 Oct
Texas has become the 5th state to complete congressional redistricting. Here's its new map! projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-… Image
The new Texas map creates 24 🔴, 13 🔵, and 1 🟣 seat. It has an efficiency gap of R+15 and a median-seat bias of R+12, signs of a pro-Republican gerrymander. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-… Image
Hispanic-rights groups have filed two lawsuits over the new Texas map, though, so this may not be over yet. The map did not create any new minority-opportunity districts. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-… Image
Read 5 tweets
27 Sep
Texas Republicans' proposed congressional map is up and analyzed on the @FiveThirtyEight redistricting tracker: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
@FiveThirtyEight The map shores up #TX07, #TX28, #TX32, and #TX34 for Dems and adds a new solid-blue #TX37 in Austin. In exchange, #TX02, #TX03, #TX06, #TX10, #TX21, #TX22, #TX23, #TX24, and #TX31 are made safer for their Republican incumbents.
Dem Rep. Vicente Gonzalez's #TX15 also becomes a bit redder, but still a tossup, under this map. I wonder if he moves over to the safe blue #TX34, whence Rep. Filemon Vela is retiring. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
Read 4 tweets
22 Sep
The Congressional Baseball Game rosters are out, and Marjorie Taylor Greene is on the Republican team. congressionalbaseball.org/teams/
The GOP roster actually has a lot of turnover this year. Shaking things up in an attempt to win their first CBG since 2016.
Meanwhile, a rare senator—Jon Ossoff—joins the Democratic team, along with Kai Kahele and Frank Mrvan. The only Dem "retiring" this year is Jimmy Gomez.
Read 6 tweets
15 Sep
The two congressional maps unveiled by New York's bipartisan commission are now up & analyzed on @FiveThirtyEight's redistricting tracker: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
@FiveThirtyEight The "letters" plan would take the state's reapportioned-away congressional district out of the GOP column. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
@FiveThirtyEight While the "names" plan would shave off 2 Democratic seats and add a Republican #NY10 in NYC. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
Read 4 tweets
3 Sep
The two new proposed congressional maps for Oregon are now up and analyzed on the @FiveThirtyEight redistricting tracker! projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
The first map, Plan A, was proposed by Democrats, and you can see why. It would make a 5-1 map quite likely. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
The second map, Plan B, was proposed by Republicans. It would keep the competitiveness of the current districts AND make the new #OR06 swingy as well. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
Read 5 tweets
31 Aug
New SurveyUSA poll of #CAgov: 51% want to keep Newsom, 43% want to recall him. A big reversal from SurveyUSA's last poll that brings them more in line with the consensus. surveyusa.com/client/PollRep…
Guessing this will really shift our average by overwriting the old SurveyUSA poll... We'll see.
Really transparent discussion from @surveyusa about why their last poll was an outlier & what might have caused the big swing. Good for them for being willing to publish the outlier AND to strive to improve. surveyusa.com/client/PollRep…
Read 7 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(