Dem Rep. Vicente Gonzalez's #TX15 also becomes a bit redder, but still a tossup, under this map. I wonder if he moves over to the safe blue #TX34, whence Rep. Filemon Vela is retiring. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
Although the Texas map isn't as bad as it could have been for Dems, it's still a Republican gerrymander. The efficiency gap is R+15 and the median seat is 12 points redder than Texas as a whole. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
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The Congressional Baseball Game rosters are out, and Marjorie Taylor Greene is on the Republican team. congressionalbaseball.org/teams/
The GOP roster actually has a lot of turnover this year. Shaking things up in an attempt to win their first CBG since 2016.
Meanwhile, a rare senator—Jon Ossoff—joins the Democratic team, along with Kai Kahele and Frank Mrvan. The only Dem "retiring" this year is Jimmy Gomez.
New SurveyUSA poll of #CAgov: 51% want to keep Newsom, 43% want to recall him. A big reversal from SurveyUSA's last poll that brings them more in line with the consensus. surveyusa.com/client/PollRep…
Guessing this will really shift our average by overwriting the old SurveyUSA poll... We'll see.
Really transparent discussion from @surveyusa about why their last poll was an outlier & what might have caused the big swing. Good for them for being willing to publish the outlier AND to strive to improve. surveyusa.com/client/PollRep…
Based on precinct results from Tarrant & Ellis counties (generously shared with me by @cinyc9), I see no evidence that #TX06 Democrats voted for Ellzey in significant numbers. (1/5)
First, there was no relationship between how Democratic a precinct was in the May 1 jungle primary and how much it voted for Ellzey today. #TX06 (2/5)
Second, the biggest turnout dropoffs from the first round came in bluer precincts, suggesting that most Democrats simply sat today's election out. #TX06 (3/5)