Thread by @anandrg

Getting the whole world to #netzero #GHGs rapidly is going to be incredibly difficult. But given how strong and organized the #climateopposition is, we must distinguish #thesignalfromthenoise on which pathways are the most likely to succeed. A 🧵 on how I think about this 1/14

2/ First, we cannot rely on social and lifestyle change governed by new paradigms like degrowth to deliver in time for this #climatedecade. But if the movement delivers small reductions in energy or meat consumption, we need it jackrabbithomes.org/can-we-save-th…

3/ #Technologyandpolicy (and politics) need to do the heavy lifting. Can they deliver? Yes, but to effectively channel our efforts and fight off the opposition, we need to distinguish between main courses, side dishes and poison pills (frequently buried in the side dishes)

4/ For reducing energy-related #enduse #emissions, the main course is #electricefficiency and #directelectrification, the side dishes AND potential poison pills ☠ are #hydrogen, #syntheticfuels and #biofuels. They are side dishes because…

5/ Gaseous and liquid fuels very inefficient and expensive compared to #electrification but are probably necessary for industrial feedstocks and #aviation ✈. They are poison pills ☠ because…

6/ The #fossilfuelindustry and #laggardautomakers like #Toyota want us to believe that these fuels are equivalent to electrification as #climatesolutions. But they are not! desmog.com/2021/01/14/dec…

7/ #Biofuels are a 🥫 of worms. There are so many ways they could worsen our climate and food problems. We could thread the needle and make them climate beneficial but let’s not go there when we don’t need them auto.howstuffworks.com/fuel-efficienc…

8/ #hydrogen and #syntheticfuels increase the risk of staying locked into a fossil fuel dependent future. @FalkoUeckerdt @GunnarLuderer and others explain how in this brilliant paper nature.com/articles/s4155…

9/ They also make it even harder than it already is to #decarbonize the #grid. Why? Because if we succeed in ensuring #greenhydrogen is made from electricity to stave off the dangers of #bluehydrogen, then we need 2 to 6 times more clean power than for direct electrification

10/ For #energysupply, the main course is #solar, onshore and #offshorewind and #batterystorage. Side dishes are #nuclear, #hydro and #geothermal. Poison pills ☠ are biomass and Gas, Coal or Oil with #CCS. Why?

11/ Because the tailwinds are with #modular #renewables and #batterystorage with rapidly increasing global annual deployments but all these rates need to triple or quadruple now. So, let’s work with this running start and push harder.

https://twitter.com/robbieorvis/status/1384864871574118414?s=20

12/ Don’t try to push #fossilCCS or #BECCS from a standing start because you are worried about the last 5% of grid decarbonization. Rapid learning rates for #batterystorage will likely yield solutions for that before we need to address that last 5%. economist.com/graphic-detail…

13/ #CCS is a poison pill because the math doesn’t add up. It is not a modular technology that shows any sign of reducing costs. And nor is there infinite amount of geologic storage capacity. forbes.com/sites/energyin…

14/ In short, enjoy your main courses and side dishes for #Thanksgiving but don’t confuse one for the other in the #energytransition. And I hope no one swallows any poison pills!