[Thread] @Tuliodna: 1. On Fri, SA scientists will meet with @WHO to discuss a new variant detected, B.1.1.529. The variant will then get a Greek name 2. B.1.1.529 has an exceptionally high nr of mutations - some could lead to the variant being able to escape immunity
@Tuliodna: 1. The B.1.1.529 variant was discovered on 23 November 2. There will be an expected 200-300 cases in next few days, cases will increase fast
3. The reproduction #SARSCoV2 number (how many other people one infected person will infect) in SA is rising. When it's bigger than 1, it's concerning. Nationally, the nr is now 1.47 and in Gauteng it's 1.93.
4. These graphs show that B.1.1.529 is no longer spreading in cluster outbreaks only, it's become a sustained or wider spread/increase.
5. @Tuliodna: There has been a rapid increase in #COVID19 cases in Tshwane district (many of them B.1.1.529 cases). But the B.1.1.529 cases have started to spread to rest of GP, particularly to Jhb and Ekurhuleni.
6.@Tuliodna:
* B.1.1.529 has more than 30 mutations in the spike protein of #SARSCoV2 (far more than both #Beta + #Delta)
* Some of the mutations we haven't seen before, but others have been linked to the ability of a variant to be more transmissible and escape immunity
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[Thread] What is the potential impact of the new B.1.1.529 #COVID19 variant? @rjlessells: 1. It's relatively simple to detect some B.1.1.529 cases, as it's possible to use PCR tests to do this in some cases 2. B.1.1.529 = has many mutations across different parts of the virus
2. Some of the mutations of the B.1.1.529 variant are situated around the spike protein that might affect how well our antibodies neutralise the #SARSCoV2 virus (so it might escape immunity to some extent).
3. Some of the mutations of B.1.1.529 look similar to mutations that have been found on other variants of concern that enhance those variants' transmissibility.
JUST IN [Thread] 1. There's an increase in the nr of #COVID19 cases and the proportion of tests coming out positive, says @nicd_sa.
WHERE? Gauteng, mostly in Tshwane
AGE GROUPS in Tshwane = most affected:
- 10-29 years (past week)
- 20-44 at a higher education institute
2. Do the new cases signal the beginning of a fourth #COVID19 wave?
- We don't know yet, localised (in other words the cases are mostly only in Tshwane) increases in cases are expected
3. Is a new variant emerging?
- Genomic sequencing in SA shows no evidence of this. But it takes time to transport samples + analyse them, so the results we have go hand-in-hand with a bit of a delay, which means we're mostly looking @ results of samples of a few weeks ago.
[Thread]. 1. What will influence the severity of a 4th #COVID19 wave?
New variants.
We don't know if there will be a new variant, but we do know that each previous SA wave was driven by a different variant:
Wave 1: Original form of SARS-CoV-2
Wave 2: Beta
Wave 3: Delta
2. What can we not for certain say about a 4th #COVID wave?
* We cannot predict if + when a new variant will emerge + what it will look like
* SA's modellers = decided to use a variant that can escape immunity (make jabs work less well) 4 their modelling 2 look @ a 4th wave
3. What else can influence what a 4th #COVID19 wave looks like?
Vaccination coverage.
Where are we at?
* About 16 million adults, or 40% of adults, have received at least one dose of vaccine
* 34% of adults = fully vaccinated