1⃣ Develop a trading plan
2⃣ Manage risk
3⃣ Start with a demo trading account
4⃣ Be proactive, adapt to the market
5⃣ Control your emotions / Never FOMO
6⃣ Keep a trading journal
7⃣ Trading / Life balance
+Personal habits
-- 1⃣ Develop a trading plan --
🔥Failing to plan is planning to fail🔥
A trading plan is a back tested guide with criteria to enter & exit a trade
🔸Entry and exit levels
🔸Position size
🔸Stop-loss level
🔸Take profit level
🔸Indicators to use to confirm your entry and exit
-- 2⃣ Manage risk --
🔥Focus on managing risk & protecting capital🔥
🔸Define your risk per trade up front
🔸Have a min risk-return trade-off i.e. 3:1
🔸Observe strict rules & discipline
Long term it's a disciplined trader who wins & lasts through the #Bitcoin / #Crypto cycles
-- 3⃣ Start with a demo trading account --
🔥Don't rush into losing your money🔥
🔸Familiarise yourself with the trading platform & different order types
🔸Back test different trading strategies without committing real money
🔸Gain confidence in entering & exiting trades
-- 4⃣ Be proactive, adapt to the market --
🔥ONLY UP isn't a trading strategy🔥
🔸Stay up to date with news, upcoming FED meetings, rate changes, economic events...
🔸#Crypto market conditions change RAPIDLY, don't hold a bias!
🔸Be prepared to switch strategy or exit
-- 5⃣ Control your emotions / Never FOMO --
🔥Fear & Greed are not your friend🔥
🔸FOMO drives you to jump into a trade without prior validation and fail to follow your plan
🔸Greed can cause you to over trade or to allocate too much of your capital in a single trade.
-- 6⃣ Keep a trading journal --
🔥Learn from your mistakes🔥
🔸Not just a summary of your trades, but also a tool where you write your observations & notes which help you to identify your strengths and weaknesses
🔸Analyze why trades were & weren’t successful & improve
-- 7⃣ Trading / Life balance --
🔥Trade to live, understand why you do it🔥
🔸Burnout can be a killer
🔸Take time away from the screens, set trading times & use alerts to allow you to step away
🔸If your on edge watching a trade, then you have added too much risk, scale out
-- EXTRA - Personal GOOD habits --
🔥Understand what works for you🔥
🔸Exercise daily
🔸Have a hobby outside of #Crypto
🔸Have a long term goal i.e. financial freedom by age X
🔸Make time for others & support each other
🔸Find your edge & stick to it
🔸Live & enjoy life!
1⃣ Blaming others for your loses
2⃣ Straying from your plan
3⃣ Emotional attachment to a trade
4⃣ Repeating mistakes
5⃣ Revenge trading
6⃣ No risk management
7⃣ Over Trading
+ Personal bad habits
-- 1⃣ Blaming others for your loses --
🔥Its not my fault, i was following X influencers tweets🔥
🔸Be responsible for your own actions
🔸Did you test the strategy or have a plan?
🔸Did the trade meet your criteria?
Its your money, you are responsible for your trades
-- 2⃣ Straying from your plan --
🔥I know what i'm doing, its ok🔥
🔸Discipline is key, biggest mistakes come when traders don’t stick to their rules
🔸Set a max loss amount & if you hit it, walk away
🔸If you have consecutive loses step away and come back later / the next day
-- 3⃣ Emotional attachment to a trade --
🔥I know I'm right, its such a good project🔥
🔸Don't let emotions dictate your trade
🔸A small lose now is better than a big one later
🔸Traders can be profitable with a < 50% win rate if you use good money management
-- 4⃣ Repeating mistakes --
🔥It will be different this time🔥
🔸Impatience or stretching losses are some of the mistakes that traders tend to repeat
🔸Evaluate your performance regularly / at the end of each session
🔸Keep a trading diary, its key to success long term
-- 5⃣ Revenge trading --
🔥If i double down this time, i will make it back & more🔥
🔸Revenge trading, is an emotionally driven response to a loss
🔸Control your emotions with discipline and sticking to your plan
🔸Set a rule not to trade for X mins after each loss
-- 6⃣ No risk management --
🔥I don't need a stop, there's no way it'll drop > 10%🔥
🔸Don't kid yourself buy trading an unproven strategy
🔸Work out your trade invalidation points
🔸Set hard or soft stops, that you stick to
🔸Know your trading odds / Risk : Reward
-- 7⃣ Over Trading --
🔥Just 1 more hr, i am on a role🔥
🔸24x7 in front of the screen is unnecessary
🔸Being tired can cause you to think irrationally and FOMO breaking your rules
🔸Set a routine and chose your trading sessions
🔸Know your limits, your not super human
-- EXTRA - Personal BAD habits --
🔥None i am perfect 😁🔥
🔸I, at one time or another, have been victim to all the previously mentioned BAD habits
🔸I am sure my wife would tell you many more
BUT currently i am trying to work on spending less time in front of the screens
-- Conclusions --
A lot of what is mentioned boils down to 2 things
1⃣ Emotions
2⃣ Discipline
Master your emotions and foster a solid base for a disciplined trading plan, and you will be well on your way to being a successful trader!
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🔹From high to low of each impulse, the 23.6 and 38.2 levels have been key support
🔹As in the previous cycle #Bitcoin has based itself around the 23.6 after cycle high
🔹When it breaks it ultimately bases off the 38.2 ~ 20k
-- $BTC Macro Bear Option /3--
Moving Averages:
🔹Similar to the fib levels, there are 2 key Monthly EMAs, the 21 and 55
🔹#Bitcoin based itself off the 21 initially
🔹When it breaks it ultimately heads to the 55 ~ 22k
This thread will cover a few indicators and metrics i will be looking at to help me identify when i should start to sell my #Bitcoin with the potential of a bear market to come.
TLDR: When i am going to sell my #Crypto
🔹Q2/3 2022 @ ~$200k
🔹 Logarithmic or log price scale, represents price spacing on the vertical or y-axis dependent on the PERCENTAGE CHANGE in the underlying asset's price
🔹 Think of it as the log scale shows the rate of change over time
1. What are Fibonacci numbers? (4 parts) 2. How are they used in Trading? (4 parts) 4. Using Fib Extensions (2 parts) 5. Using Fib Retracements (2 parts) 5. Using Time Cycles (2 parts)
🔹 Fibonacci numbers are a numerical series depicting nature’s expansion
🔹 The same number sequence appears all over throughout nature. i.e.
🔸 The number of petals on a flower
🔸 A snail shell
🔹This could take a bit to explain what i am seeing
🔹I am using:
🔸Yearly closes (Red Dots)
🔸Ranges taken from the closes, broken into Phases
🔸A Parabola linking the yearly closes
🔸Elliot Wave for wave structure
🔹The Phases double in Height each year. i.e.
🔸Phase 1 = 1 range height from open to close
🔸Phase 2 = double phase 1 in height*
🔸Phase 3 = double phase 2 in height*
*Gets more parabolic as time goes on
🔹The EW count puts us in the 4th wave of the 3rd
🔹The 4th is looking like a big running flat correction
🔹The 5th if taken as a 1:1 of wave 1, would take us to ~$200K
🔹The W4 correction will be a killer and make every think its over. BUT its NOT!
-- Educational - When is the next “Alt Season”? --
[An 11 Part thread, bear with it.]
1. What is Alt Season? 2. What is #Bitcoin Dominance? 3. How to interpret BTC.D 4. How to trade based on BTC.D pt.1 5. How to trade based on BTC.D pt.2 6. What is TOTAL2?
-- Educational - When is the next “Alt Season”? --
7. How to interpret #TOTAL2 8. How BTC.D and TOTAL2 can be used in conjunction Pt.1 9. How BTC.D and TOTAL2 can be used in conjunction Pt.2 10. What is the current state of play Pt.1? 11. What is the current state of play Pt.2?
-- What is “Alt Season”? --
🔹 A.k.a Altszn, is a part of the #cryptocurrency market cycle when many alt coins “moon”
🔹 "Mooning" is when a coin go up quickly in price
🔹 Basically an Altszn is when the Alts are out performing #BTC against the $