China Will Disrupt Crypto (2) $ETH Killer
-> PBOC proposes to monitor metaverse and NFTs cointelegraph.com/news/china-s-c…

Crypto underestimates the vision of China's Digital Currency Ambition.
Its about inserting a digital RMB into the global reserve currency complex while upending
Dollar hegemony and supreamacy. The vision will allow China open its Capital A/c and fund the massive deficits accrued by semi state enterprises. I forsee the Yuan as a stable coin, leading to a collapse in FX volatility and a genuine use case for RMB mass adoption via its
customer wallet and digital currency as a vehicle for day to day transactions in the global payment system. Recent movement to emphasize stakeholders over shareholders in Chinese FinTech suggests that the tool that China used to play catch up with the west post joining WTO will
be used to propel the RMB forward, with this technology stack sitting on top of the digital RMB. This plan see's BTC as a threat to RMB 'sovereignty' a key factor behind China's determination to adopt a digital currency in the first space, given the worrying outfows ( China lost
1.0 Trio dollars of FX reserves ) in the period 2014/2017 which the chinese authorities attribute to the ''popularity of bitcoin" at the time.
So now we have a digital reserve contender, in a world where Global CB reserves are predominantly ( 60%) weighted in Dollar's,
excessively easy Monetary and Fiscal Policy, while China is working to create mass adoption of its currency by inserting in the global payment system ( the 1st sign of facebook project Libra's failure, was China luring paypal away from the libra project and giving themaccess
to CIPS ( China international payment system ).
With a currency that has appreciated by 10% on a basket basis since covid began in Dec2019 despite trade wars, covid and two US presendencies hostile to China, its clear to me, that another strategy to enhance the Digital RMB's
attractiveness is to place its technology stack ( now doing the work of the people ) on top of the Digital RMB to drive the currency forward.
So as DCEP launch appears on the horizon, my view is that China will have created a digital alternative to the dollar, which will be a
stablecoin. Using China's huge consumer tech wallet, a case for mass use in the global payment system will, through the speed that a digital payment currency offers, backed up by huge user engagement a force to threaten not just the dollar, where many US policy makers do not
see a user case for a digital currency but in placing its socialised fintech to sit as a stack in its currency creating end user demand via the infrastrucure being put in place by western firms to capture the opportunities China as a market offers in both Equities and Bonds.
Now the Chinese see the proposition offered by the Metaverse and NFT's and again typical with the puritanism expressed by many participants, the digital asset space, they underestimate the proposition and threat for crypto assets (#Defi) proposed by Chinas policy stance. This is
negative for #ETH and consistent with my view that DCEP launch will be negative for all major Crypto assets over coming months.

DCEP - A Digital App Store For RMB Fintech

remember I was bullish $ETH in agust 2020

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More from @CurrencyWar1

28 Sep
VOLTE FACE
18 months ago, not one member of FED gave a damn about the digital Dollar.
Why the change of heart. China launches it CBDC soon and despite the chaos im confident it will launch and fly well. 8% REER apprecaition since covid is a clear statment of intent by Chinese.
China began its DCEP project after 1.0 trio outflows from 2014/2017 with a large proportion of those outflows via stablecoins and #BTC. China's ambition is to upend Dollar hegemony, the evergrande bankruptcy is a perfect case in point with international capital markets concerned
she will make her offshore Dollar bond repayments.
China cannot hope to defend its borderss with a weak currency. Outflows have been for china and most other EMFX a true doom loop and the evolution of a CBDC is PBOC's attempt to stem that capital flow offshore.
Read 4 tweets
23 Sep
Strength=Credibility
@jnordvig shows $CNY 8% TW rise since Covid confounding expectations. Why? $RMB Reserve FX status requires $CNY trades strong during domestic crises [Covid, Trade & Evergrande] as Strength = Credibility with #DCEP launch imminent, thus why #BTC strength will
be resisted. As Jens highlights, China's FX reserves collapsed in 2015/16/17, falling 1.0 Trio USD. PBOC MU, the head of the digital lab told us at HK blockchain week in 2019 that the popularity of #bitcoin during this period lead the PBOC to fear for sovereignty of the Yuan. So
China decided to launch it's digital Yuan project as all the outflows were leaving the country. They broke the dollar peg in aug 2015, which crushed US stocks, and pivoted to tracking the CFETS basket a precursor to DCEP. China has changed its FX regime on avg every 5 years.
Read 8 tweets
6 Oct 20
Irreconsilable
US twin deficit's & Fed policy point to continued dollar weakness.
Fed adopted new inflation regime targeting 2.5% AIT.
China, tied No1 holder of $DXY reserves intend's to offer its DCEP/CBDC as a dollar alternative leading CB's to diversify away from $USD
Eurozone is caught in a pincer movement where HICP is collapsing and Project Digital and EU 750 Bio bond will if they are to be successful require tolerance of validating inflows. Increasing QE further risks zombification of EZ banks which are already in trouble.
Europe needs
a magic bullet. Talking down the Euro when @Lagarde and @Paschald highlight the urgent need to adopt a digital Euro and at the same time welcome europe's forthcoming 750 Bio 'Safe Asset' common bond which will inevitably lead much needed inflows if they are to validate Europe's
Read 8 tweets
8 Jul 20
China Outflanked Trump. The Game Is Lost.
Trump is a flailing desperate drunk, swinging for China on Trade & Covid. WH went ''all-in'' on China trade purchases ( wont happen ), meanwhile Covid unwind has been a disaster ( x2 dip ?) leaving Trump 2020 chances almost negligible. ImageImage
Contrast with China, now on road to recovery with monetary stimulus negligible vs FED which might do more (Clarida) & likely congress slow on more fiscal. Exploding dificits & easy Fed will weigh on dollar. Meanwhile China declared a war of its own, building a tech revolution & ImageImage
then a ''call to arm's'' telling its people to get on board the stock market. yield differential & state sponsored tech explosion ( Nasdaq 95-00 ) will lift the Yuan driving a broad dollar drop. A weaker dollar boosts global growth ( NB 2009 it helped start a stock mkt rally Image
Read 4 tweets
22 Apr 20
Evidence China Manipulates S+P
I've argued China bought dips 17 X from March Asian lows. bit.ly/2VQ4trY Price action today same MO-> rally on little news, coincidentally rallies also. @WSJ concludes same. Asia Buys While U Sleep on.wsj.com/2KnmM2i ImageImageImageImage
Why China Buys US Stocks
Aug 2015 Yuan Deval established a direct causal effect between weaker Yuan and weaker US stocks. Thru my career market participants would say that when when rolls over, correlations converge to 1 likely due to globalisation inter-connectivity. Thus Image
as china exported #COVID19 , global disconnectedness generated negative tail risks and blowback, opening China up on many front's. The negative export loop where exporting #COVID19 lead to a global pandemic and a collapse in its export's increasing Yuan / interdependence.
Read 18 tweets

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