[Thread] @nicd_sa, Michelle Groome and Waasila Jassat:

1. SA's 7-day moving average of new daily #COVID19 cases has increased from 332 on 16 Nov to 4,814 on 1 Dec (particularly high increase over the last 2 days)
2. This increase is unprecedented (higher than in any other wave)
2. The most rapid increase in new #COVID cases has been seen in Gauteng (red line on left graph)
3. Test positivity rates are a good indication of how rapidly a virus is spreading. + rate = nr of tests coming out +.

Over the past week SA's test +rate for #COVID19 has increased from 1-2% to Thurday's 22.4%. Increases over the last 3 days have been particularly high.
4. Here you can see how + rates have increased in provinces. +rates in Gauteng (34%) and Limpopo (28%) are the highest.
5. This graph shows the test positivity rate among different age groups. Although more young people tested + initially in Oct/Nov, that is now moving into older age groups.
6. This table shows the reproductive (R) nr for provinces. It tells you how many people an infected person will infect. It's concerning when it's higher than 1.

All SA provinces have an R higher than 1. GP = 2.33.

This means each person in GP will infected more than 2 others.
7. What about hospital admissions?
1. Over the past 2 weeks, hospital admissions have increased across SA.
2. The highest increase has been in GP.
3. There have been small increases in NW, LP, MP, EC.
8. By how much have hospital admissions and deaths increased over the past 14 days?
1. The biggest hospital admission increases are in GP (304%), NW (65%) and LP (13%)
2. The biggest hospital death increases are in NW (140%), GP (17%) and EC (16%)
9. What's happening in Gauteng with #COVID19 cases in age groups?

Initially the largest group of people who tested positive = people between 10 and 29 years, but that is now extending to other age groups (outbreaks started @ universities, where 20-29 hangs out)
10. Hospital admissions in all districts in Gauteng are not starting to rise rapidly. There are steep week on week increases (blue line in graph = new #COVID19 cases; orange line = new COVID hospital admissions)
11. Gauteng has seen a significant increase in hospital admissions of kids of 5 and younger. Older people (60+) still constitute most new admissions, but kids of under 5 are now a much larger proportion of admissions than previously.
12. This graph compares hospital admissions in Tshwane (where the #OmicronVariant outbreak started) during the 3rd and 4th wave.

3rd wave: People of 50+ mostly got admitted
4th wave: People below 40 years are mostly getting admitted (look at the high nrs for 30-39 and 0-4 yrs)
13. Northwest: There is an increase in #COVID19 cases and hospital admissions in all districts

Limpopo: There is a small increase in hospital admissions in Vhembe, Capricorn and Waterberg districts
14. MP:
1. Small increases in #COVID19 hospital admissions in Ehlazeni and Nkangala
2. Increases in new #COVID19 cases across the province
15. EC: Increases in new #COVID19 cases and small increases in #COVID19 hospital admissions
FS: No increases in hospital admissions yet
16. Summary:
1. There is early evidence that the #OmicronVariant = more transmissible + poses an increased risk 4 reinfection
2. We don't know what Omicron's impact is on severe disease - cases are mild so far, but = takes time 2 fall very ill, so we need 2 wait for better data.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Mia Malan

Mia Malan Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @miamalan

4 Dec
[Thread] JUST IN:
1. NEW #OmicronVariant data from the Steve Biko/Tshwane District Hospital Complex via @MRCza. Tshwane = where SA's Omicron outbreak started

1. Data = for the 1st 2 weeks of the outbreak (14-29 Nov)
2. Past 5 days (29 Nov-3 Dec) = exponential increase in cases Image
2.
1. 21% of #COVID19 patients = on oxygen because of COVID
2. This is lower than previous waves
3. 76% of patients = incidental COVID admissions (they were admitted 4 other conditions + found out they had COVID when they had to do a test)
Study: bit.ly/3Ig0753 Image
3. What do we know about admitted patients' vaccination status?
Snapshot of 2 Dec:
Of 38 adults in #COVID19 wards:
* 6 = vaccinated
* 24 = unvaccinated
* 8 = unknown vaccination status

Of 9 patients with COVID pneumonia
* 8 = unvaccinated, 1 is a child
* 1 = vaccinated Image
Read 11 tweets
3 Dec
[Thread] 1. SA scientists have found that people who have had #COVID19 and is exposed to #SARSCoV2 again are 3x more likely to get reinfected if they were exposed to the #Omicron variant than to the Beta or #DeltaVariant. What does this mean?

Study: bit.ly/3rweewR
2. In easy speak it means the #OmicronVariant is 3x better than the Beta or #DeltaVariant at figuring out how to get around the protection that our antibodies offer against getting reinfected with #COVID. (These are antibodies we get after natural infection, not vaccination.)
3. In science speak it means the #OmicronVariant poses a 3-fold increase in relative risk for reinfection (when compared to the Beta or #DeltaVariant).
Read 12 tweets
3 Dec
#JoePhaahla: [Thread]
1. 8 days ago SA announced the detection of the #OmicronVariant
2. SA's daily new #COVID19 cases = increased rapidly (within a wk) from a few 100 2 Thu's 11,535
3. Much steeper rise than in previous waves
4. + rates = increased from 1-2% (wk ago) to 22.4%
2.
1. The #OmicronVariant outbreaks started in Tshwane and then spread to Jhb, Ekurhuleni and Sedibeng
2. It has now spread to every province
3. Increases huge in: WC, KZN, LP, NW, MP (only FS and NC still relatively low nrs)
3.
1. We have 47 000 active #COVID19 cases and hospital admission are below 3000
2. We've seen many vaccinated people getting infected with the #OmicronVariant, but cases seem to be mild
3. We have spare be capacity in both the private and public health sectors
Read 4 tweets
1 Dec
[Thread] 1. From TODAY (1 Dec) adults in SA with certain conditions that weaken their immune systems can access an additional #COVID19 vaccine dose. How do you get a dose? Your doctor/nurse needs to fill out a form. Download it here:
bit.ly/31jRuW4
2. You need to register on the #EVDS for an additional dose and take the form that your doc/nurse filled out with you to the vaccination site. Here's how it works:
3. Which conditions qualify?
1. Haematological or immune malignancy
2. Moderate to severe primary immunodeficiency disorder
3. HIV infection with CD4 count < 200 cells/µL within the last 6 months
4. Asplenia

Source: bit.ly/31jRuW4
Read 11 tweets
30 Nov
[Thread] What is the significance of the license agreement #JnJ will grant @aspenpharma to fill and finish an Aspen brand of #JnJ's #COVID jab?

Aspen will be able to sell their jabs to African countries. Currently they can't, they have to hand the jabs back to JnJ to sell.
2. #JnJ is essentially giving Aspen a voluntary license to make (fill and finish) its vaccine and sharing the intellectual property rights with Aspen to do this.
3. Africa imports 99% of its vaccines from outside the continent. Having an African manufacturer (to fill and finish) that will only supply #COVID19 jabs to Africa will increase access to supplies on the continent.
Read 7 tweets
30 Nov
BREAKING [Thread]
1. Janssen Pharmaceuticals will grant @aspenpharma a license 2 fill + finish #JnJ's #COVID19 jab under its own brand + sell it to African countries. Currently, the jabs Aspen "fill and finish" have to be handed back to JnJ + they then sell it to who they want.
2. The jabs that Aspen will "fill and finish" under the new agreement will:
1. Be called Aspenovax (#JnJ will give Aspen the IP rights to make its own brand)
2. Will use drug substance (the key ingredient) supplied by JnJ
3. Aspen will be able to sell its Aspenovax jabs (the same thing as a #JnJ jab, just a different name) to
public sector markets in Africa through transactions with designated multilateral organisations and with national governments of member states of the African Union.
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(