Thread by @miamalan

[Thread] @nicd_sa, Michelle Groome and Waasila Jassat:

1. SA's 7-day moving average of new daily #COVID19 cases has increased from 332 on 16 Nov to 4,814 on 1 Dec (particularly high increase over the last 2 days)
2. This increase is unprecedented (higher than in any other wave)

2. The most rapid increase in new #COVID cases has been seen in Gauteng (red line on left graph)

3. Test positivity rates are a good indication of how rapidly a virus is spreading. + rate = nr of tests coming out +.

Over the past week SA's test +rate for #COVID19 has increased from 1-2% to Thurday's 22.4%. Increases over the last 3 days have been particularly high.

4. Here you can see how + rates have increased in provinces. +rates in Gauteng (34%) and Limpopo (28%) are the highest.

5. This graph shows the test positivity rate among different age groups. Although more young people tested + initially in Oct/Nov, that is now moving into older age groups.

6. This table shows the reproductive (R) nr for provinces. It tells you how many people an infected person will infect. It's concerning when it's higher than 1.

All SA provinces have an R higher than 1. GP = 2.33.

This means each person in GP will infected more than 2 others.

7. What about hospital admissions?
1. Over the past 2 weeks, hospital admissions have increased across SA.
2. The highest increase has been in GP.
3. There have been small increases in NW, LP, MP, EC.

8. By how much have hospital admissions and deaths increased over the past 14 days?
1. The biggest hospital admission increases are in GP (304%), NW (65%) and LP (13%)
2. The biggest hospital death increases are in NW (140%), GP (17%) and EC (16%)

9. What's happening in Gauteng with #COVID19 cases in age groups?

Initially the largest group of people who tested positive = people between 10 and 29 years, but that is now extending to other age groups (outbreaks started @ universities, where 20-29 hangs out)

10. Hospital admissions in all districts in Gauteng are not starting to rise rapidly. There are steep week on week increases (blue line in graph = new #COVID19 cases; orange line = new COVID hospital admissions)

11. Gauteng has seen a significant increase in hospital admissions of kids of 5 and younger. Older people (60+) still constitute most new admissions, but kids of under 5 are now a much larger proportion of admissions than previously.

12. This graph compares hospital admissions in Tshwane (where the #OmicronVariant outbreak started) during the 3rd and 4th wave.

3rd wave: People of 50+ mostly got admitted
4th wave: People below 40 years are mostly getting admitted (look at the high nrs for 30-39 and 0-4 yrs)

13. Northwest: There is an increase in #COVID19 cases and hospital admissions in all districts

Limpopo: There is a small increase in hospital admissions in Vhembe, Capricorn and Waterberg districts

14. MP:
1. Small increases in #COVID19 hospital admissions in Ehlazeni and Nkangala
2. Increases in new #COVID19 cases across the province

15. EC: Increases in new #COVID19 cases and small increases in #COVID19 hospital admissions
FS: No increases in hospital admissions yet

16. Summary:
1. There is early evidence that the #OmicronVariant = more transmissible + poses an increased risk 4 reinfection
2. We don't know what Omicron's impact is on severe disease - cases are mild so far, but = takes time 2 fall very ill, so we need 2 wait for better data.