Thread by @althecat

Here's a satellite presentation of the flooding event in Wellington yesterday.

https://twitter.com/althecat/status/1468506442449702914

And a wider view. Here we can see that the official La Nina weather pattern (supposed to bring dry weather to NZ and Aus) isn't playing like it used to.

And here is a fairly ominous 16-day forecast for atmospheric water in the Southern Hemisphere, remember that the Southern Hemisphere summer is just starting. The current pattern for tropical water flows over NZ is forecast to hold for a week.

And a 10-day rainfall simulation forecast from the same model. Fortunately the heavy rainfall forecast, at the end of this simulation misses NZ, but the positioning of this atmospheric river is definitely within the margin of error.