1/ #Omicron 🧵
Been a few weeks since we heard of #OmicronVariant
Thought I would look at what we have learned so far, and some questions that remain, using @OurWorldInData & some global reports.
So at peak, South Africa has had ~400% increase in cases.
#COVID19BC
#cdnpoli
Been a few weeks since we heard of #OmicronVariant
Thought I would look at what we have learned so far, and some questions that remain, using @OurWorldInData & some global reports.
So at peak, South Africa has had ~400% increase in cases.
#COVID19BC
#cdnpoli
2/ #Omicron - South Africa
Can we attribute the rise of cases directly to Omicron?
Looks like the answer is yes.
South Africa cases are 100% Omicron now.
Botswana ~20%.
Canada/UK/USA still low, but increasing.
(Other countries where it has been found for comparison)
Can we attribute the rise of cases directly to Omicron?
Looks like the answer is yes.
South Africa cases are 100% Omicron now.
Botswana ~20%.
Canada/UK/USA still low, but increasing.
(Other countries where it has been found for comparison)
3/ #Omicron - What's happening with Delta?
This seems obvious, but just to confirm with the sharp increase in Omicron, there is a concurrent steep decline of #DeltaVariant as it is displaced.
This makes us all tense as we still have a lot to learn, but it's not all doom & gloom
This seems obvious, but just to confirm with the sharp increase in Omicron, there is a concurrent steep decline of #DeltaVariant as it is displaced.
This makes us all tense as we still have a lot to learn, but it's not all doom & gloom
4/ #Omicron - Mortality
While mortality is clearly not the only metric to measure things, it's a significant one.
Extending graph out to cover mortality assoc. w/ Delta since ~June, seeing very low # deaths in South Africa since Omicron introduced w/ similar numbers to Canada
While mortality is clearly not the only metric to measure things, it's a significant one.
Extending graph out to cover mortality assoc. w/ Delta since ~June, seeing very low # deaths in South Africa since Omicron introduced w/ similar numbers to Canada
5/ #Omicron Reproductive rate
Looking at fast spread in a bit more detail.
Repro rate well over 2.
Predictions from UK of a 2-4 day doubling time.
Norway showed 73% of vaxxed ppl at the #OsloParty infected & spread to ~60 ppl who attended restaurant same evening.
Looking at fast spread in a bit more detail.
Repro rate well over 2.
Predictions from UK of a 2-4 day doubling time.
Norway showed 73% of vaxxed ppl at the #OsloParty infected & spread to ~60 ppl who attended restaurant same evening.
6/ #Omicron - @UKHSA Data (Dec 10)
"if Omicron continues to grow at the present rate, the variant will become the dominant strain, accounting for more than 50% of all COVID-19 infections in the UK by mid-December"
581 cases w/ 0 hospitalized & 0 deaths
gov.uk/government/new…
"if Omicron continues to grow at the present rate, the variant will become the dominant strain, accounting for more than 50% of all COVID-19 infections in the UK by mid-December"
581 cases w/ 0 hospitalized & 0 deaths
gov.uk/government/new…
7/ #Omicron - Symptoms
All indications of milder symptoms (consistent w/ dec hosp/deaths)
Cough, fatigue, congestion, runny nose, muscle aches
(like common coronaviruses)
NOT seeing fevers, shortness of breath, loss of smell like w/ other #COVID19
globalnews.ca/news/8443119/o…
All indications of milder symptoms (consistent w/ dec hosp/deaths)
Cough, fatigue, congestion, runny nose, muscle aches
(like common coronaviruses)
NOT seeing fevers, shortness of breath, loss of smell like w/ other #COVID19
globalnews.ca/news/8443119/o…
8/ #Omicron - Severity (SA)
% positivity ranging from 16.4-24.9%.
~90% cases in @Netcare_Limited Hospitals require no O2 therapy, considered "incidental" cases.
Before, 26% required ICU.
Indications that Omicron wave may be treated by Primary Care.
dailymaverick.co.za/article/2021-1…
% positivity ranging from 16.4-24.9%.
~90% cases in @Netcare_Limited Hospitals require no O2 therapy, considered "incidental" cases.
Before, 26% required ICU.
Indications that Omicron wave may be treated by Primary Care.
dailymaverick.co.za/article/2021-1…
9/ #Omicron - Other Trends
Some other trends being seen in South Africa include that patients being admitted are much younger.
1 report saying 80% of cases under age of 50.
?Because lower vax rates in this age.
While total death numbers low, have been deaths in ages ~20-30.
Some other trends being seen in South Africa include that patients being admitted are much younger.
1 report saying 80% of cases under age of 50.
?Because lower vax rates in this age.
While total death numbers low, have been deaths in ages ~20-30.
10/ #Omicron - Vaccines?
Reports this week showing that 3 doses are needed to prevent infection.
Mostly seeing mild breakthrough infections (ie Norway)
If 2 doses prevents hosp/death etc, decisions re: boosters HERE now should be based on Delta.
nytimes.com/live/2021/12/0…
Reports this week showing that 3 doses are needed to prevent infection.
Mostly seeing mild breakthrough infections (ie Norway)
If 2 doses prevents hosp/death etc, decisions re: boosters HERE now should be based on Delta.
nytimes.com/live/2021/12/0…
11/ #Omicron - Post Infectious Immunity
Could lead to immunity in unvaccinated populations as it spreads.
If majority mild illness, could help with overall protection, but at what cost?
Will see strain on already stretched thin healthcare systems.
telegraph.co.uk/global-health/…
Could lead to immunity in unvaccinated populations as it spreads.
If majority mild illness, could help with overall protection, but at what cost?
Will see strain on already stretched thin healthcare systems.
telegraph.co.uk/global-health/…
12/ #Omicron - Transmission
Evidence continues to support airborne transmission.
"airborne transmission when respective doors were opened for food collection or Covid testing the most probable mode of spread, researchers at the University of Hong Kong"
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Evidence continues to support airborne transmission.
"airborne transmission when respective doors were opened for food collection or Covid testing the most probable mode of spread, researchers at the University of Hong Kong"
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
13/ #Omicron - Questions/Discussion
While lots remains unknown, there definitely is good news coming out.
I keep thinking, how much worse could things be on a global scale right now if #Omicron was actually MORE severe?
Lots to learn re: therapeutics, vaccines, #LongCOVID
While lots remains unknown, there definitely is good news coming out.
I keep thinking, how much worse could things be on a global scale right now if #Omicron was actually MORE severe?
Lots to learn re: therapeutics, vaccines, #LongCOVID
14/ #Omicron - Questions/Discussion
With travel and holidays coming, we can expect to see this same displacement from Delta to Omicron in Canada (targeted travel bans won't stop this).
What can we do to prepare more?
Need to look at masks, testing (PCR + RAT), education.
With travel and holidays coming, we can expect to see this same displacement from Delta to Omicron in Canada (targeted travel bans won't stop this).
What can we do to prepare more?
Need to look at masks, testing (PCR + RAT), education.
15/ #Omicron - Questions Discussion
Considering my primary care lens, if this is going to be managed in primary care.
Can expect need for expanding infrastructure for testing, supporting Family Docs in this & tightening connection b/w Public Health + @BCFamilyDoctors.
#BCPoli
Considering my primary care lens, if this is going to be managed in primary care.
Can expect need for expanding infrastructure for testing, supporting Family Docs in this & tightening connection b/w Public Health + @BCFamilyDoctors.
#BCPoli
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