Thread by @baunov

THREAD 1/15 #Russia’s Foreign Ministry has taken the unusual step of publicly releasing a draft treaty it has sent to #Washington outlining its demands for deescalating tensions, including over Ukraine. The ministry says it wants to begin negotiations without delay.

2/15 The agreement outlines the concessions to be made by Washington, but does not indicate what concessions Russia is prepared to make. Yet the difference between diplomacy and a military victory is that in diplomacy, everyone makes concessions.

3/15 With rare exceptions, diplomacy is not a rushed affair. If tight deadlines are issued, it means one side wants to take action; if tough conditions are laid down — even more so. Or it means that one side is certain that the other has no other options.

4/15 Previously, Russia has proposed talks on individual aspects of Western policies that it was unhappy about: eg #NATO’s expansion, military bases, US withdrawal from arms control treaties, missile defense systems in Eastern Europe, US support for regime change, etc.

5/15 Apart from the unusual openness & unlikelihood of the demands, the new draft treaty is notable because it sets out everything that Russia is unhappy about & that it would like to change. The treaty takes issue not with the details, but with Western behavior in general.

6/15 If we think of the Russia the world has known since the late ‘80s, the demands contained in it are impossible, unfeasible & inflated. But for today’s world, in the era of rivalry between the superpowers, there is nothing in there that could not at least be discussed.

7/15 So what is making Russia behave like a superpower? Putin is increasingly focused on bringing his reign in Russian history to a conclusion. Right now, neither the status quo in Ukraine, nor in the world at large are a satisfactory way for that period to conclude.

8/15 The world has become stuck on the idea that the post-Soviet Russia of Mikhail Gorbachev and Boris Yeltsin was the norm, and Putin’s Russia is an anomaly. But Putin has been in power longer than Gorbachev and Yeltsin combined, and may remain in power for many more years.

9/15 A simple comparison of historical periods (never mind economic development, military modernization etc) allows Putin to see his period as the norm, and the period of his predecessors as a brief anomaly in Russia’s history: a page that should be turned as swiftly as possible.

10/15 Within this mindframe, the positions of the ‘80s and ‘90s are not irreversible. Russia’s proposed new treaty is the first time the Russian leadership has publicly voiced its proposal to review the overall outcome of the ‘80s & ‘90s, rather than just certain details.

11/15 All of Russia’s recent actions are a clear signal that it doesn’t consider the current state of affairs to be the norm. An inflated initial public position followed by a few years of private discussions could lead to a correction. This is the mildest possible outcome.

12/15 The harshest possible outcome is military action. When “diplomacy” entails sending a treaty on spec, the real aim is to leave all diplomacy behind. “Look, we tried, everyone saw, but we have exhausted all diplomatic avenues and are moving from words to actions now.”

13/15 Indeed, two deputy foreign ministers have already said Moscow is unhappy with the West’s initial response, though they clearly knew no proper consultation would be possible the weekend before Christmas. Moscow is apparently in a rush to criticize the West’s reaction.

14/15 Yet in this era of new openness, new formats, and all or nothing gestures, Moscow’s actions could still work as diplomacy. After all, Washington and its European partners don’t have many options in terms of their response.

15/15 They will be reluctant to resort to an option that will be terrible for everyone, so for now, attempts are being made to avoid an overly sharp response to the conversation started by Russia in such an unusual manner. After all, a sharp response may be just what Russia wants