THREAD:
Today I’ll breakdown #DeGea’s performance in the #PremierLeague using my bespoke GK models!
The headline is for the first time in 3 seasons #DeGea’s shot stopping skills are outweighing his weak shot prevention skills & thus far he has saved #MUFC ~5 additional goals!
Today I’ll breakdown #DeGea’s performance in the #PremierLeague using my bespoke GK models!
The headline is for the first time in 3 seasons #DeGea’s shot stopping skills are outweighing his weak shot prevention skills & thus far he has saved #MUFC ~5 additional goals!
Shot Stopping:
#DeGea’s shot stopping has been world class, my model predicts he has saved #MUFC ~5 goals more than an average #PL shot stopper would’ve thus far!
The goalmouth map highlights just how hard #DeGea has been to beat, if you don’t hit the corners you won’t score!
#DeGea’s shot stopping has been world class, my model predicts he has saved #MUFC ~5 goals more than an average #PL shot stopper would’ve thus far!
The goalmouth map highlights just how hard #DeGea has been to beat, if you don’t hit the corners you won’t score!
Shot Stopping:
His Best 3 Saves (Lowest ExSave Saves Made) are below 😮:
1. 24% Save Probability vs Jesus
2. 34% Save Probability vs Almiron
3. 42% Save Probability vs Pukki
They highlight #DeGea big strength, his reflexes & ability to cover huge amounts of the goal area.
His Best 3 Saves (Lowest ExSave Saves Made) are below 😮:
1. 24% Save Probability vs Jesus
2. 34% Save Probability vs Almiron
3. 42% Save Probability vs Pukki
They highlight #DeGea big strength, his reflexes & ability to cover huge amounts of the goal area.
Shot Stopping:
His Worst 3 Goals Conceded (Highest ExSave Goals Conceded) are here 😔:
1. 91% Save Probability vs ESR
2. 84% Save Probability vs Pedro
3. 63% Save Probability vs Salah
They highlight #DeGea’s issues if he fails to sort his feet out, especially at the near post
His Worst 3 Goals Conceded (Highest ExSave Goals Conceded) are here 😔:
1. 91% Save Probability vs ESR
2. 84% Save Probability vs Pedro
3. 63% Save Probability vs Salah
They highlight #DeGea’s issues if he fails to sort his feet out, especially at the near post
Handling:
#DeGea’s handling has presented the opposition with 0.5 more ExG than the avg #PL GK would be expected to given the shots he’s faced, but his handling has been solid & if the poor parries vs #WWFC & #LCFC are removed his handling has prevented #MUFC 0.8 ExG in rebounds
#DeGea’s handling has presented the opposition with 0.5 more ExG than the avg #PL GK would be expected to given the shots he’s faced, but his handling has been solid & if the poor parries vs #WWFC & #LCFC are removed his handling has prevented #MUFC 0.8 ExG in rebounds
Handling:
I don’t think #DeGea’s handling is something he needs to work on & it hasn’t been a consistent problem in the past few years so I think with a larger sample size his numbers should improve given they are driven by just 2 poor parries!
I don’t think #DeGea’s handling is something he needs to work on & it hasn’t been a consistent problem in the past few years so I think with a larger sample size his numbers should improve given they are driven by just 2 poor parries!
1v1 Stopping:
#DeGea’s 1v1 stopping has been solid!
My model predicts he has saved #MUFC ~2 goals more than an average #PL shot stopper would’ve thus far!
His calmness when facing long range 1v1s has been excellent & he has consistently given the striker the hardest finish!
#DeGea’s 1v1 stopping has been solid!
My model predicts he has saved #MUFC ~2 goals more than an average #PL shot stopper would’ve thus far!
His calmness when facing long range 1v1s has been excellent & he has consistently given the striker the hardest finish!
1v1 Stopping:
I do worry that #DeGea’s close range 1v1 level isn’t sustainable & could drop off & given it is only average at the moment that could cost #MUFC goals!
DDG has relied on his reflexes to make 4 of the saves rather than engaging which my model finds is suboptimal!
I do worry that #DeGea’s close range 1v1 level isn’t sustainable & could drop off & given it is only average at the moment that could cost #MUFC goals!
DDG has relied on his reflexes to make 4 of the saves rather than engaging which my model finds is suboptimal!
Cross Claiming:
As usual #DeGea’s cross claiming performance has been well below average.
My model finds that while he often catches & rarely misses the ball he is far too inactive & thus has only prevented ~0.15 ExG per game due to claims (0.10 ExG lower than an avg #PL GK!)!
As usual #DeGea’s cross claiming performance has been well below average.
My model finds that while he often catches & rarely misses the ball he is far too inactive & thus has only prevented ~0.15 ExG per game due to claims (0.10 ExG lower than an avg #PL GK!)!
Sweeping:
#DeGea’s sweeping is also below par!
Again while he is very tidy when he does come off his line my model finds he has prevented just ~0.05 ExG per game due to sweeps (0.05 ExG less than an avg #PL GK), so again his poor output is driven by a lack of activity!
#DeGea’s sweeping is also below par!
Again while he is very tidy when he does come off his line my model finds he has prevented just ~0.05 ExG per game due to sweeps (0.05 ExG less than an avg #PL GK), so again his poor output is driven by a lack of activity!
Conclusions:
Overall #DeGea has been worth +0.33 goals per game for #MUFC this season
While his shot prevention remains down their with the worst goalkeepers in the #PremierLeague his excellent shot stopping has meant he has had a positive influence on #ManchesterUnited
Overall #DeGea has been worth +0.33 goals per game for #MUFC this season
While his shot prevention remains down their with the worst goalkeepers in the #PremierLeague his excellent shot stopping has meant he has had a positive influence on #ManchesterUnited
Conclusions:
This is the first time in 3 seasons where #DeGea’s actually been an overall above avg GK:
Shot stopping 19/20 = +0.02
Shot preventing 19/20 = -0.16
Shot stopping 20/21 = +0.06
Shot preventing 20/21 = -0.15
Shot stopping 21/22 = +0.51
Shot preventing 21/22 = -0.18
This is the first time in 3 seasons where #DeGea’s actually been an overall above avg GK:
Shot stopping 19/20 = +0.02
Shot preventing 19/20 = -0.16
Shot stopping 20/21 = +0.06
Shot preventing 20/21 = -0.15
Shot stopping 21/22 = +0.51
Shot preventing 21/22 = -0.18
Regarding the claim that #DeGea is the GK of the season:
Not for me (not just yet anyway).
It is important to note that GKing is more than shot stopping & here are #Ramsdale’s numbers a GK who is performing at +0.44 goals per game above average thus +0.11 more than #DeGea!
Not for me (not just yet anyway).
It is important to note that GKing is more than shot stopping & here are #Ramsdale’s numbers a GK who is performing at +0.44 goals per game above average thus +0.11 more than #DeGea!
Thank you everyone for taking the time to read all this & a happy new year!
I will do a similar thread to this for #Alisson in January, I think Ali is having an excellent season & his performances aren’t talked about enough due to a recent drop in form over the past month!
I will do a similar thread to this for #Alisson in January, I think Ali is having an excellent season & his performances aren’t talked about enough due to a recent drop in form over the past month!
Also what is going on with the left side of #MUFC’s defence?
A huge fraction of the 1v1s #DeGea has faced this season have come from the space between the left back & the left centre back, I am not sure if teams just attack that side more or if that side is just much weaker?
A huge fraction of the 1v1s #DeGea has faced this season have come from the space between the left back & the left centre back, I am not sure if teams just attack that side more or if that side is just much weaker?
If you are interested in the shot prevention model here is a thread that outlines the model in full with lots of handy breakdowns & match footage!
#GKUnion #GKAnalytics
#GKUnion #GKAnalytics
https://twitter.com/jhdharrison1/status/1307341104522702848
Additionally if you are interested in the 1v1 shot stopping model here is a thread which breaks down that model & analysis in full!
https://twitter.com/jhdharrison1/status/1273312389233082369
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