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Rijo M. John Profile picture
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5 Jan, 3 tweets, 3 min read
This is how GoI creates false narratives! There is no sign of a clear "surge" of #COVID19 cases in #Kerala, yet. Whereas, in comparison, a surge is more visible in #UttarPradesh & #Bihar whose names are conspicuously absent from the list of "emerging states of concern".
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In fact, both #UttarPradesh & #Bihar are among the top 5 states with the highest growth of active cases at the moment.
I had predicted the possibility of this narrative just a couple of days back

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More from @RijoMJohn

Rijo M. John Profile picture
26 Aug 21
All the focus is on #Kerala's #COVID19 cases as it contributed ~68% of new cases in India y'day.

Politically, it's become a major tool of attack against the state & its government.

This thread tries to make some sense of the COVID19 numbers from Kerala.

1/
Many are asking why Kerala is reporting so many cases while the rest of India seems to have flattened it.

Yet, I'm actually surprised why Kerala is reporting only so many cases when it should be actually reporting 40K+ daily cases already.

2/
The current rise in cases was inevitable with the somewhat irrational lockdown relaxations & increased mobility that is visible over the past several weeks. It is only the reduced testing that is still holding the reported cases well below 40K.


3/
Read 17 tweets
Rijo M. John Profile picture
4 Aug 21
Prof. @MenonBioPhysics, @nebuer42, & I prepared a set of recommendations on #Kerala's #COVID19 management, part of which was appeared in today's @Malayla_Manoram.

It pertains to suggested changes in the current lockdown policy of the state, vaccinations, etc.
1/
Recommendations on lockdown.
2/
Recommendations on vaccination.
3/
Read 4 tweets
Rijo M. John Profile picture
30 Jul 21
This thread on why #Kerala’s #COVID19 numbers still not falling & my subsequent tweet on ICMR 4th serosurvey has exponentially increased the level of troll activity on my TL

I love data & let me dispel more misconceptions with data so the trolls can keep earning their bread.
1/
First of all, I feel pity for these trolls wasting their time on a state whose healthcare infra has never collapsed at any time during this pandemic.

Here's the current usage of health infra in Kerala. Don't you worry, the state will sail through even at 40K daily cases.
2/
One major argument against my original thread was that I used an old ICMR serosurvey. Yes, because a new one was not yet available. When it became available, it didn't change a thing. See the article I wrote deriving same conclusions using 4th survey.
3/
 science.thewire.in/health/why-is-…
Read 14 tweets
Rijo M. John Profile picture
24 Jul 21
Seroprevalence in #Kerala is 42.7% compared to 67.6% as per the note shared byGovt. of Kerala y'day. i.e., a difference of 25% points.

It implies, the pandemic spread in Kerala has stayed consistently well below the national avg. indicating a more flattened curve in Kerala.
1/
Both 7-day avg. daily new cases & test positivity rates are on a steady rise in #Kerala as ~50% of the popn still remain susceptible.

Daily testing has been stable around 1.3L/day

The state needs to significantly increase its daily testing given the high & increasing TPR
2/
Although the daily reported deaths have declined a bit, the mortality rate itself has been on the rise.

At 0.5%, it is higher than the previous wave.
3/
Read 6 tweets
Rijo M. John Profile picture
22 Jul 21
.@MoHFW_INDIA has quickly come up with another #MythsVsFacts to "debunk" one more report highlighting India's #COVID19 deaths undercounting as they've done multiple times in the past.

As usual, the rebuttal itself is rich in myths & low on facts.
1/
The original study by the @CGDev & authored by respected authors including Dr. @arvindsubraman, former chief economist to GoI, estimates that India may have undercounted #COVID19 deaths by 10 times. The study can be found here.
2/
 cgdev.org/publication/th…
The major problem GoI seems to have is that this study "audacious"ly assumed the same international estimates of age-specific infection fatality rates (IFR) to Indian seroprevalence data ignoring the fact that the authors have used 3 different methods to derive their numbers.
3/
Read 19 tweets
Rijo M. John Profile picture
18 Jul 21
Has #Kerala miserably failed in containing #COVID19 pandemic?

This is a question I keep getting from various quarters. This thread is an attempt to explain it.
1/ Image
Using the latest ICMR 3rd sero survey results during Dec 2020, we can see that #Kerala was able to identify & report one in every 5 cases, while all of India was able to identify only 1 in every 28 cases.

It shows the effectiveness of testing strategy used in Kerala
2/ Image
Testing after good tracing & tracking would make it much more effective. This may result in higher TPR, but it's a cost effective use of testing infrastructure

Kerala has not only done nearly double the number of tests per million but it had a much better case detection rate.
3/
Read 13 tweets

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