🌎 It's time to start a new tweetstorm to monitor global trade rebound, which should be larger than exp. in 2021.
*The drag from #Covid_19 restrictions in 🇺🇸 🇪🇺 will ease.
*Uncertainty linked to trade tensions ⬇.
*Leading sectors (semis and autos) already point to a sharp ⬆.
🇯🇵 #Japan | In January, the value of overseas shipments climbed 6.4% YoY (fastest since Oct. 2018), rising for a second month and picking up from December’s 2% pace. Image
🇯🇵 #Japan's exports, machine orders pick up as global demand recovers - Reuters
reuters.com/article/us-jap…
Earlier this week, 🇰🇷 figures for the first days of February (adjusted for calendar effects) were also encouraging.

🇰🇷 #SouthKorea February 1-20 Exports Y/Y: +16.7% v +11.4% in January (full month)
*Average Daily Exports Y/Y: +29.2%❗ v +6.4% in January (full month)
➡ Link (Korean): bit.ly/3pBtWSU Image
🇹🇼 #Taiwan Sounds Currency Warning as Chip Demand Fuels Exports - Bloomberg
*Link: bloom.bg/3aE4OXk ImageImage
🌎 #Freight | #Shipping costs are rising very quickly and it's not only a problem of supply or base effect. ImageImage

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More from @C_Barraud

8 Jul 20
🇺🇸 U.S. High Frequency Data Suggest That Economic Recovery Has Stalled Amid #Virus Resurgence
*Link: ⚠ bit.ly/2O9mnT4Image
🇺🇸 As Businesses Reopen, Many Americans Plan to Spend Less - Bloomberg
*More than 40% of adults say they’ll cut back on some of the very discretionary spending needed by struggling retailers.
*Link: bloom.bg/2AGmuCw Image
🇺🇸 Five Real-Time Charts Show Signs U.S. Economic #Recovery Is Faltering - Bloomberg
*Link: bloom.bg/3flL7nh ImageImage
Read 21 tweets
24 Apr 20
🌎 As I repeated (bit.ly/2Vzbui8; bit.ly/2Ks0P2g; bit.ly/3awqL7l; bit.ly/3eMEWsn), economists have been too optimistic about global GDP prospects. Image
🇺🇸 #SPX | Analysts have been also too optimistic concerning earnings expectations (bit.ly/3bAcAj1).

🇺🇸 #SPX | Since the beginning of March, the S&P 500 Index’s 12-month forward earnings per share estimate has slumped 19% and is bound to deteriorate further as business and economic activity have slowed amid the coronavirus outbreak - Bloomberg Image
Read 8 tweets
1 Apr 20
🌎 It's now time to create a new tweetstorm more focused on 2Q impact.

🇩🇪 #GERMANY TO EXTEND CORONAVIRUS RESTRICTIONS TO END-EASTER: NTV
🇩🇪 #GERMANY EXTENDS NATIONWIDE LOCKDOWN UNTIL APRIL 19 - BBG
Read 56 tweets
8 Mar 20
#OOTT | 🇸🇦🇷🇺🇺🇸🌎 The end of the diplomatic alliance between #Saudi Arabia and #Russia will have significant consequences:
#Oil prices are likely to remain low longer than expected which would be positive for advanced economies mainly net importers such as Eurozone countries.

➡ Meanwhile, #oil exporting countries will be forced to cut public spending in order to balance budgets.
➡ Latest indications suggest that #Saudi is now ready to cut prices dramatically and fight both #Russia and U.S. exporters in terms of market share, which implies that U.S. exports should decline soon.

Read 35 tweets
18 Feb 20
🇸🇬 🇨🇳 #SINGAPORE PLANS 2 PACKAGES, TOTALING S$5.6B, TO SUPPORT ECONOMY - BBG
*SINGAPORE PLANS S$800M FROM BUDGET TO COUNTER VIRUS EFFECTS
*SINGAPORE TO GRANT CORPORATE INCOME TAX REBATE OF 25% FOR 2020
🇰🇷 #SouthKorea's president calls for 'all possible measures' to help virus-hit economy - Reuters
reuters.com/article/us-chi…
🇪🇺 #Eurozone ministers discuss fiscal boost options as virus worries weigh - Reuters
reuters.com/article/us-eur…
Read 5 tweets
7 Feb 20
🇺🇸 Equities | My understanding of investors' sentiment following multiple discussions:

1/ Reality is that investors are not looking at Macro or Earnings right now. They were trapped last year and most of them don’t want to miss again any upside move.
2/ They remember that SPX increased by ~30% in 2019 despite Global GDP was revised downward by ~0.6ppt and SPX earnings growth was cut by >8%.
3/ The upside mainly came from a dramatic switch in liquidity expectations and the same phenomenom is happening right now with #PBOC relaunching the party worldwide.

Read 8 tweets

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